Cagliari vs Lecce Previsione

Serie A · Regular Season - 3

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Lecce

Away

Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Previsione AI Cagliari o pareggio

45%

30%

25%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Cagliari vs Lecce: Sportiko assegna a Cagliari una probabilità di vittoria del 45%, a Lecce del 25% e al pareggio del 30%. Ultimo aggiornamento 7 Sep 2026, 18:27.

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Casa a Segno 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
Oltre 1.5 Gol 70%

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Match Report

Cagliari claimed all three points at home against Lecce thanks to a first-half goal from Daniel Maldini, who struck in the 29th minute to give the hosts a lead they would not relinquish. Lecce's Kialonda Gaspar was booked shortly after, and a late substitution before the break disrupted the visitors' rhythm further as the sides headed into the interval with the scoreline unchanged.

Despite Lecce enjoying 58% of possession in the second half, Cagliari's defensive organisation proved resolute, limiting their opponents to just three shots on target across the entire match. The hosts, by contrast, generated 20 total attempts and seven corner kicks, suggesting a controlled if not dominant performance once the lead was established. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Cagliari win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct.

A flurry of substitutions from both sides after the hour mark failed to alter the contest, and a tense finale saw yellow cards shown to Deiola, Siebert, and goalkeeper Falcone deep into stoppage time. Cagliari held firm to secure a narrow but deserved victory.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Daniel Maldini assist: Jacopo Fazzini

29' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 37'

Kialonda Gaspar Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Oumar Ngom ⇄ Amar Fatah

HT 1–0

Jacopo Fazzini ⇄ Mattia Felici

61' ⇄

Juan Rodríguez ⇄ Raphael Kofler

66' ⇄

Daniel Maldini ⇄ Alieu Fadera

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

Kialonda Gaspar ⇄ Jamil Siebert

⇄ 66'

Ivan Ilić ⇄ Youssef Maleh

⇄ 66'

Joël Monteiro ⇄ Konan N'Dri

Mattia Felici

74' ⇄

Paul Mendy

74' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Santiago Pierotti ⇄ Medon Berisha

Alessandro Deiola Yellow Card

90+5' ▮

▮ 90+5'

Jamil Siebert Yellow Card

▮ 90+7'

Wladimiro Falcone Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Cagliari

Match Stats

Lecce

42% Ball Possession 58%

20 Total Shots 10

9 Shots on Goal 3

7 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 3

11 Shots insidebox 4

9 Shots outsidebox 6

7 Corner Kicks 5

5 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 8

372 Total passes 517

304 Passes accurate 425

13 Free Kicks 8

Cagliari

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
70 Daniel Maldini M	8.2	66'	1	–	5	16 (13%)	–
10 Jacopo Fazzini M	7.7	61'	–	1	2	29 (27%)	2
15 Juan Rodríguez D	7.5	66'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	1
14 Alessandro Deiola D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	3
22 Raphael Kofler D	7.2	24'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
39 Alieu Fadera F	7.1	24'	–	–	2	6 (3%)	1
33 Adam Obert D	7.1	90'	–	–	1	28 (23%)	–
2 Zé Pedro D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	27 (20%)	3
8 Michel Adopo M	6.9	90'	–	–	2	36 (32%)	–
17 Mattia Felici F	6.9	13'	–	–	1	5 (3%)	–
6 Harry Winks M	6.7	90'	–	–	1	53 (47%)	–
1 Elia Caprile G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	31 (19%)	–
4 Alessandro Romano M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	34 (27%)	2
Seamus Maughan	6.4	16'	–	–	1	5 (5%)	–
31 Paul Mendy F	6.0	74'	–	–	2	16 (13%)	–

Lecce

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
30 Wladimiro Falcone G	8.6	90'	–	–	–	26 (20%)	–
14 Youssef Maleh M	6.9	24'	–	–	–	20 (20%)	1
44 Tiago Gabriel D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	82 (77%)	2
20 Ivan Ilić M	6.8	66'	–	–	1	55 (51%)	1
79 Oumar Ngom M	6.6	46'	–	–	2	33 (24%)	5
29 Lassana Coulibaly M	6.5	90'	–	–	1	55 (47%)	1
7 Amar Fatah F	6.5	44'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	2
17 Danilo Veiga D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	48 (38%)	1
9 Nikola Štulić F	6.4	90'	–	–	2	16 (13%)	–
11 Konan N'Dri F	6.3	24'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	–
4 Kialonda Gaspar D	6.3	66'	–	–	–	61 (53%)	2
10 Medon Berisha M	6.3	8'	–	–	1	9 (4%)	–
50 Santiago Pierotti M	6.1	82'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	2
99 Joël Monteiro M	6.1	66'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	3
5 Jamil Siebert D	6.0	24'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
25 Antonino Gallo D	5.8	90'	–	–	–	31 (20%)	1

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Cagliari o pareggio

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.4%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Cagliari

WWWLL

Lecce

LWLLW

Last 3 meetings Cagliari · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Cagliari will face Lecce in a Serie A clash that promises to be competitive. Cagliari's recent form shows a mixed bag, with their last five matches yielding two wins and three losses, while Lecce has been slightly more consistent, recording two wins, two draws, and a loss in the same period. Cagliari's offensive output has been uneven, averaging 1.2 goals per game, while Lecce has managed 1.1 goals per match. Defensively, both teams have struggled, with Cagliari conceding 1.8 goals per game compared to Lecce's 1.5. With both teams needing points to improve their standings, expect a tactical battle with potential for goals on both sides.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

25%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lecce goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	7	5	1
1	11	14	6	2	1
2	9	9	4	1
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Cagliari goals · most likely 1–1 (14.4%)

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Players in form

Cagliari

D. Maldini 3 gls

Lecce

L. Coulibaly 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.9%	7.5%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
1	11.2%	14.4%	6.3%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.0%	8.9%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.2%	4.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Cagliari	Draw	Lecce
Cagliari	31.0%	5.7%	2.1%
Draw	13.6%	19.6%	12.0%
Lecce	1.2%	3.0%	11.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Cagliari vs Lecce

2 Cagliari Wins

0 Draws

1 Lecce Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Feb 2026	Cagliari	0 - 2	Lecce
19 Sep 2025	Lecce	1 - 2	Cagliari
19 Jan 2025	Cagliari	4 - 1	Lecce

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Cagliari — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Udinese	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Atalanta	W	1 - 2
07 Sep	H Lecce	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Hellas Verona	L	1 - 2
30 Aug	H Inter	L	0 - 1

Lecce — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A AC Milan	L	3 - 0
13 Sep	H Monza	W	3 - 2
07 Sep	A Cagliari	L	1 - 0
31 Aug	H AS Roma	L	0 - 4
23 Aug	A Venezia	W	0 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

Cagliari

Formation: 4-3-2-1 Coach: Fabio Pisacane

1 Caprile

33 Obert

15 Rodríguez

14 Deiola

2 Pedro

6 Winks

4 Romano

8 Adopo

10 Fazzini

70 Maldini

31 Mendy

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	E. Caprile	G
2	Zé Pedro	D
14	A. Deiola	D
15	J. Rodríguez	D
33	A. Obert	D
8	M. Adopo	M
4	A. Romano	M
6	H. Winks	M
70	D. Maldini	M
10	J. Fazzini	M
31	P. Mendy	F

Substitutes

17	M. Felici	F
30	A. Akarakiri	M
24	G. Aurelio	D
20	R. Ciervo	F
39	A. Fadera	F
21	Roberto Gagliardini	M
36	N. Grandu	M
22	R. Kofler	D
27	J. Liteta	M
79	Y. Massolin	M
23	B. Radunović	G
12	A. Sherri	G
32	Ivan Stoyanov Sulev	M
35	A. Sugamele	F

Lecce

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

30 Falcone

25 Gallo

44 Gabriel

4 Gaspar

17 Veiga

20 Ilić

99 Monteiro

29 Coulibaly

79 Ngom

50 Pierotti

9 Štulić

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
30	W. Falcone	G
17	Danilo Veiga	D
4	Kialonda Gaspar	D
44	Tiago Gabriel	D
25	A. Gallo	D
20	I. Ilić	M
50	S. Pierotti	M
79	O. Ngom	M
29	L. Coulibaly	M
99	Joël Monteiro	M
9	N. Štulić	F

Substitutes

5	J. Siebert	D
31	E. Scott	D
33	P. Penev	G
16	O. Gandelman	M
11	K. N’Dri	F
3	C. Ndaba	D
14	Y. Maleh	M
18	G. Jean	D
28	Olaf Gorter	M
8	S. Fofana	M
7	A. Ahmed Fatah	F
22	Paco Esteban	F
2	A. Dembélé	D
1	M. Bleve	G
10	M. Berisha	M