Cagliari vs Lecce Prediction

Serie A Serie A · Regular Season - 3
FT
Post on X
Unipol Domus, Cagliari
AI прогноза Cagliari или равен
45%
30%
25%
Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Cagliari vs Lecce prediction: Sportiko gives Cagliari a 45% chance of winning, Lecce 25% and the draw 30%. Last updated 7 Sep 2026, 18:27.

Premium прогнози

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  • Домакинът да вкара 75%
  • 2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
  • Над 1.5 гола 70%
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Match Report

Cagliari claimed all three points at home against Lecce thanks to a first-half goal from Daniel Maldini, who struck in the 29th minute to give the hosts a lead they would not relinquish. Lecce's Kialonda Gaspar was booked shortly after, and a late substitution before the break disrupted the visitors' rhythm further as the sides headed into the interval with the scoreline unchanged.

Despite Lecce enjoying 58% of possession in the second half, Cagliari's defensive organisation proved resolute, limiting their opponents to just three shots on target across the entire match. The hosts, by contrast, generated 20 total attempts and seven corner kicks, suggesting a controlled if not dominant performance once the lead was established. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Cagliari win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct.

A flurry of substitutions from both sides after the hour mark failed to alter the contest, and a tense finale saw yellow cards shown to Deiola, Siebert, and goalkeeper Falcone deep into stoppage time. Cagliari held firm to secure a narrow but deserved victory.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Daniel Maldini assist: Jacopo Fazzini
29' ⚽ 1–0
▮ 37'
Kialonda Gaspar Yellow Card
⇄ 45'
Oumar Ngom ⇄ Amar Fatah
HT 1–0
Jacopo Fazzini ⇄ Mattia Felici
61' ⇄
Juan Rodríguez ⇄ Raphael Kofler
66' ⇄
Daniel Maldini ⇄ Alieu Fadera
66' ⇄
⇄ 66'
Kialonda Gaspar ⇄ Jamil Siebert
⇄ 66'
Ivan Ilić ⇄ Youssef Maleh
⇄ 66'
Joël Monteiro ⇄ Konan N'Dri
Mattia Felici
74' ⇄
Paul Mendy
74' ⇄
⇄ 82'
Santiago Pierotti ⇄ Medon Berisha
Alessandro Deiola Yellow Card
90+5' ▮
▮ 90+5'
Jamil Siebert Yellow Card
▮ 90+7'
Wladimiro Falcone Yellow Card
FT 1–0
Cagliari

Match Stats

Lecce
42% Ball Possession 58%
20 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Goal 3
7 Shots off Goal 4
4 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 4
9 Shots outsidebox 6
7 Corner Kicks 5
5 Offsides 1
9 Fouls 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
0 Red Cards 0
3 Goalkeeper Saves 8
372 Total passes 517
304 Passes accurate 425
13 Free Kicks 8
Cagliari
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
70 Daniel Maldini M 8.2 66' 1 – 5 16 (13%) –
10 Jacopo Fazzini M 7.7 61' – 1 2 29 (27%) 2
15 Juan Rodríguez D 7.5 66' – – – 36 (31%) 1
14 Alessandro Deiola D 7.2 90' – – – 37 (32%) 3
22 Raphael Kofler D 7.2 24' – – 1 3 (2%) –
39 Alieu Fadera F 7.1 24' – – 2 6 (3%) 1
33 Adam Obert D 7.1 90' – – 1 28 (23%) –
2 Zé Pedro D 7.0 90' – – – 27 (20%) 3
8 Michel Adopo M 6.9 90' – – 2 36 (32%) –
17 Mattia Felici F 6.9 13' – – 1 5 (3%) –
6 Harry Winks M 6.7 90' – – 1 53 (47%) –
1 Elia Caprile G 6.6 90' – – – 31 (19%) –
4 Alessandro Romano M 6.6 90' – – 2 34 (27%) 2
Seamus Maughan 6.4 16' – – 1 5 (5%) –
31 Paul Mendy F 6.0 74' – – 2 16 (13%) –
Lecce
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
30 Wladimiro Falcone G 8.6 90' – – – 26 (20%) –
14 Youssef Maleh M 6.9 24' – – – 20 (20%) 1
44 Tiago Gabriel D 6.8 90' – – – 82 (77%) 2
20 Ivan Ilić M 6.8 66' – – 1 55 (51%) 1
79 Oumar Ngom M 6.6 46' – – 2 33 (24%) 5
29 Lassana Coulibaly M 6.5 90' – – 1 55 (47%) 1
7 Amar Fatah F 6.5 44' – – 1 11 (7%) 2
17 Danilo Veiga D 6.4 90' – – – 48 (38%) 1
9 Nikola Štulić F 6.4 90' – – 2 16 (13%) –
11 Konan N'Dri F 6.3 24' – – – 7 (4%) –
4 Kialonda Gaspar D 6.3 66' – – – 61 (53%) 2
10 Medon Berisha M 6.3 8' – – 1 9 (4%) –
50 Santiago Pierotti M 6.1 82' – – – 23 (17%) 2
99 Joël Monteiro M 6.1 66' – – 1 14 (9%) 3
5 Jamil Siebert D 6.0 24' – – – 24 (20%) –
25 Antonino Gallo D 5.8 90' – – – 31 (20%) 1
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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ
Cagliari или равен
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Cagliari
WWWLL
Lecce
LWLLW
Last 3 meetings Cagliari · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Cagliari will face Lecce in a Serie A clash that promises to be competitive. Cagliari's recent form shows a mixed bag, with their last five matches yielding two wins and three losses, while Lecce has been slightly more consistent, recording two wins, two draws, and a loss in the same period. Cagliari's offensive output has been uneven, averaging 1.2 goals per game, while Lecce has managed 1.1 goals per match. Defensively, both teams have struggled, with Cagliari conceding 1.8 goals per game compared to Lecce's 1.5. With both teams needing points to improve their standings, expect a tactical battle with potential for goals on both sides.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
45%
10%
Draw
30%
45%
Away
25%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Cagliari
D. Maldini 3 gls
Lecce
L. Coulibaly 2 gls

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Head to Head: Cagliari vs Lecce

2 Cagliari Wins
0 Draws
1 Lecce Wins
Date Home Score Away
16 Feb 2026 Cagliari 0 - 2 Lecce
19 Sep 2025 Lecce 1 - 2 Cagliari
19 Jan 2025 Cagliari 4 - 1 Lecce
See all 10 meetings — Premium

Cagliari — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep A Udinese W 0 - 1
12 Sep A Atalanta W 1 - 2
07 Sep H Lecce W 1 - 0
03 Sep H Hellas Verona L 1 - 2
30 Aug H Inter L 0 - 1

Lecce — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A AC Milan L 3 - 0
13 Sep H Monza W 3 - 2
07 Sep A Cagliari L 1 - 0
31 Aug H AS Roma L 0 - 4
23 Aug A Venezia W 0 - 2

Serie A Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
AS Roma
5 4 1 0 +11 13
2
Inter
5 4 1 0 +7 13
3
Lazio
5 4 1 0 +5 13
4
Cagliari
5 4 0 1 +3 12
5
AC Milan
5 3 2 0 +6 11
6
Frosinone
5 3 1 1 +5 10
7
Juventus
5 3 1 1 +4 10
8
Como
5 3 1 1 +3 10
9
Napoli
5 2 1 2 +1 7
10
Sassuolo
5 2 1 2 0 7
11
Atalanta
5 2 0 3 -2 6
12
Lecce
5 2 0 3 -5 6
13
Udinese
5 1 1 3 -3 4
14
Torino
5 1 1 3 -3 4
15
Parma
5 1 1 3 -3 4
16
Monza
5 1 1 3 -4 4
17
Fiorentina
5 1 1 3 -6 4
18
Bologna
5 0 2 3 -3 2
19
Genoa
5 0 1 4 -7 1
20
Venezia
5 0 0 5 -9 0

Cagliari

Formation: 4-3-2-1 Coach: Fabio Pisacane
1 Caprile
33 Obert
15 Rodríguez
14 Deiola
2 Pedro
6 Winks
4 Romano
8 Adopo
10 Fazzini
70 Maldini
31 Mendy

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 E. Caprile G
2 Zé Pedro D
14 A. Deiola D
15 J. Rodríguez D
33 A. Obert D
8 M. Adopo M
4 A. Romano M
6 H. Winks M
70 D. Maldini M
10 J. Fazzini M
31 P. Mendy F

Substitutes

17 M. Felici F
30 A. Akarakiri M
24 G. Aurelio D
20 R. Ciervo F
39 A. Fadera F
21 Roberto Gagliardini M
36 N. Grandu M
22 R. Kofler D
27 J. Liteta M
79 Y. Massolin M
23 B. Radunović G
12 A. Sherri G
32 Ivan Stoyanov Sulev M
35 A. Sugamele F

Lecce

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco
30 Falcone
25 Gallo
44 Gabriel
4 Gaspar
17 Veiga
20 Ilić
99 Monteiro
29 Coulibaly
79 Ngom
50 Pierotti
9 Štulić

Starting XI

# Player Pos
30 W. Falcone G
17 Danilo Veiga D
4 Kialonda Gaspar D
44 Tiago Gabriel D
25 A. Gallo D
20 I. Ilić M
50 S. Pierotti M
79 O. Ngom M
29 L. Coulibaly M
99 Joël Monteiro M
9 N. Štulić F

Substitutes

5 J. Siebert D
31 E. Scott D
33 P. Penev G
16 O. Gandelman M
11 K. N’Dri F
3 C. Ndaba D
14 Y. Maleh M
18 G. Jean D
28 Olaf Gorter M
8 S. Fofana M
7 A. Ahmed Fatah F
22 Paco Esteban F
2 A. Dembélé D
1 M. Bleve G
10 M. Berisha M

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