Canada vs Morocco Prediction

World Cup · Round of 16

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Morocco

Away

Πρόβλεψη AI Δύσκολη νίκη ή ισοπαλία για Morocco

17%

30%

53%

Νίκη Γηπεδούχου Ισοπαλία Νίκη Φιλοξενούμενης

Canada vs Morocco prediction: Sportiko gives Canada a 17% chance of winning, Morocco 53% and the draw 30%. Last updated 20 Jul 2026, 15:55.

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Match Report

Morocco eliminated Canada from the World Cup with a commanding 3-0 victory in the Round of 16, though the scoreline belied a tense, card-filled first half that ended goalless. Both sides were involved in a fractious spell before the break, with five yellow cards shown across the two teams in the final minutes of the first half alone, setting a combative tone heading into the interval.

Morocco took control after the restart when Azzedine Ounahi broke the deadlock five minutes into the second half. The Moroccan midfielder then doubled his tally with a second goal on 82 minutes, effectively ending Canada's hopes of a comeback. Soufiane Rahimi added a third in stoppage time to seal a convincing win. Despite Canada enjoying 55 percent possession, Morocco generated far greater attacking threat, recording ten total shots to Canada's five and winning eleven corner kicks compared to just one for the Canadians.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Morocco win as the most likely outcome at 53 percent, a call that proved correct. Morocco advance to the quarterfinals.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 20'

Redouane Halhal Yellow Card

⇄ 22'

Ismael Saibari ⇄ Soufiane Rahimi

Richie Laryea Yellow Card

40' ▮

▮ 40'

Achraf Hakimi Yellow Card

Jonathan David Yellow Card

43' ▮

▮ 45'

Azzedine Ounahi Yellow Card

▮ 45+6'

Bilal El Khannouss Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Luc De Fougerolles Yellow Card

49' ▮

⚽ 0–1 50'

Azzedine Ounahi assist: Achraf Hakimi

Tani Oluwaseyi ⇄ Cyle Larin

63' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Ayyoub Bouaddi ⇄ Sofyan Amrabat

⇄ 63'

Bilal El Khannouss ⇄ Chemsdine Talbi

Cyle Larin Yellow Card

67' ▮

Richie Laryea ⇄ Jacob Shaffelburg

78' ⇄

Ali Ahmed ⇄ Promise David

78' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 82'

Azzedine Ounahi assist: Brahim Díaz

Tajon Buchanan ⇄ Jayden Nelson

87' ⇄

Niko Sigur ⇄ Jonathan Osorio

87' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Azzedine Ounahi ⇄ Samir El Mourabet

⇄ 87'

Issa Diop ⇄ Marwane Saadane

⚽ 0–3 90'

Soufiane Rahimi assist: Brahim Díaz

FT 0–3

Canada

Match Stats

Morocco

45% Ball Possession 55%

0.84 Expected Goals (xG) 0.82

10 Total Shots 5

3 Shots on Goal 4

4 Shots off Goal 1

3 Blocked Shots 0

6 Shots insidebox 3

4 Shots outsidebox 2

11 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 3

24 Fouls 14

4 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

359 Total passes 473

272 Passes accurate 388

76% Passes % 82%

0.53 goals_prevented 0.53

Canada

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Stephen Eustaquio M	7.5	90'	–	–	–	64 (49%)	4
12 Tani Oluwaseyi F	7.3	63'	–	–	2	10 (3%)	3
23 Niko Sigur M	6.9	87'	–	–	–	32 (26%)	1
20 Ali Ahmed M	6.9	78'	–	–	–	12 (8%)	4
14 Jacob Shaffelburg F	6.9	12'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
22 Richie Laryea D	6.7	78'	–	–	–	21 (17%)	1
26 Jayden Nelson F	6.6	13'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	–
24 Promise David F	6.5	12'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
10 Jonathan David F	6.3	90'	–	–	2	24 (18%)	3
21 Jonathan Osorio M	6.3	13'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
9 Cyle Larin F	6.2	27'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
2 Alistair Johnston D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	35 (29%)	1
16 Maxime Crépeau G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	–
17 Tajon Buchanan M	5.9	87'	–	–	1	15 (11%)	1
4 Luc De Fougerolles D	5.6	90'	–	–	1	48 (38%)	–
15 Moise Bombito D	5.3	90'	–	–	–	46 (33%)	–

Morocco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Azzedine Ounahi M	9.0	87'	2	–	2	44 (33%)	–
1 Bono G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	40 (26%)	–
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	7.9	90'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	3
2 Achraf Hakimi D	7.5	90'	–	1	–	56 (42%)	2
14 Issa Diop D	7.3	87'	–	–	–	75 (69%)	–
10 Brahim Díaz M	7.3	90'	–	2	–	19 (15%)	1
9 Soufiane Rahimi F	7.2	68'	1	–	3	10 (5%)	2
6 Ayyoub Bouaddi M	7.0	63'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	1
5 Marwane Saadane D	6.9	13'	–	–	–	1	–
25 Redouane Halhal D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	66 (63%)	–
7 Chemsdine Talbi F	6.9	27'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	2
24 Neil El Aynaoui M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	55 (47%)	–
15 Samir El Mourabet M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
23 Bilal El Khannouss M	6.5	63'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	2
11 Ismael Saibari F	6.3	22'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
4 Sofyan Amrabat M	6.2	27'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Η ανάλυσή μας

Δύσκολη νίκη ή ισοπαλία για Morocco

Most likely score

0:1 · 15%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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Canada

LWLWD

Morocco

LWDWW

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, Canada will face Morocco in a neutral venue on July 4, 2026. Both teams bring distinct styles; Canada typically relies on a strong counter-attacking approach, while Morocco is known for its solid defensive organization and technical play. Key players like Canada's Alphonso Davies and Morocco's Achraf Hakimi could be pivotal in creating scoring opportunities. With both teams aiming to secure crucial points in the tournament, expect a competitive clash that may hinge on set-pieces and individual brilliance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

17%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

53%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Morocco goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	13	15	12	6	2	1
1	7	13	9	4	2
2	3	4	3	2	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Canada goals · most likely 0–1 (15.0%)

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Players in form

Canada

J. David 3 gls

Morocco

I. Saibari 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

30%

Home Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

53%

Draw

30%

Home Win

17%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

76% Away (No Draw) 24% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Away Win by 2+ 5% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Away Scores More 30% Equal Goals 17% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

22%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.8%	15.0%	12.1%	6.0%	2.2%
1	6.6%	13.4%	8.7%	4.3%	1.6%
2	2.9%	4.3%	3.2%	1.5%	0.6%
3	0.7%	1.0%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Canada	Draw	Morocco
Canada	9.4%	3.7%	1.9%
Draw	7.4%	20.5%	20.0%
Morocco	0.8%	3.5%	32.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Canada vs Morocco

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Canada — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H Morocco	L	0 - 3
28 Jun	A South Africa	W	0 - 1
24 Jun	A Switzerland	L	2 - 1
18 Jun	H Qatar	W	6 - 0
12 Jun	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	1 - 1

Morocco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
09 Jul	A France	L	2 - 0
04 Jul	A Canada	W	0 - 3
30 Jun	A Netherlands	D	1 - 1
24 Jun	H Haiti	W	4 - 2
19 Jun	A Scotland	W	0 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Morocco

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Mohamed Ouahbi

1 Bono

3 Mazraoui

25 Halhal

14 Diop

2 Hakimi

24 Aynaoui

6 Bouaddi

23 Khannouss

8 Ounahi

10 Diaz

11 Saibari

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Bono	G
2	A. Hakimi	D
14	I. Diop	D
25	R. Halhal	D
3	N. Mazraoui	D
6	A. Bouaddi	M
24	N. El Aynaoui	M
10	B. Diaz	M
8	A. Ounahi	M
23	B. El Khannouss	M
11	I. Saibari	F

Substitutes

22	A. Tagnaouti	G
12	Munir	G
4	S. Amrabat	M
20	A. El Kaabi	F
19	Y. Belammari	D
17	A. Sbai	F
7	C. Talbi	F
15	S. El Mourabet	M
16	G. Yassine	F
5	M. Saadane	D
9	S. Rahimi	F
26	A. Salah-Eddine	D
18	C. Riad	D
21	A. Amaimouni	F
13	Z. El Ouahdi	D

Canada

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Jesse Marsch

16 Crepeau

22 Laryea

4 Fougerolles

15 Bombito

2 Johnston

20 Ahmed

7 Eustaquio

23 Sigur

17 Buchanan

12 Oluwaseyi

10 David

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	M. Crepeau	G
2	A. Johnston	D
15	M. Bombito	D
4	L. De Fougerolles	D
22	R. Laryea	D
17	T. Buchanan	M
23	N. Sigur	M
7	S. Eustaquio	M
20	A. Ahmed	M
10	J. David	F
12	T. Oluwaseyi	F

Substitutes

1	D. St.Clair	G
18	O. Goodman	G
9	C. Larin	F
5	J. Waterman	D
19	A. Davies	D
13	D. Cornelius	D
14	J. Shaffelburg	F
26	J. Nelson	F
21	J. Osorio	M
3	A. Jones	D
11	L. Millar	F
6	M. Choiniere	M
25	N. Saliba	M
24	P. David	F