Model vs market

Value Edge

Matches where our statistical model rates an outcome more likely than the market-implied probability. The bigger the gap, the bigger the model's edge. Ranked by edge, refreshed through the day.

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Match	Outcome	Model	Market	Edge
Stal Mielec v Stal Rzeszów I Liga · Sat 13:30	Under 1.5	26.8%	15.4%	+11.4 pts
Sochaux v Saint Etienne Ligue 2 · Sat 18:45	Over 4.5	21.1%	12.5%	+8.6 pts
Viking v Sarpsborg 08 FF Eliteserien · Sat 14:00	Under 1.5	20.7%	12.5%	+8.2 pts

Match	Outcome	Model	Market	Edge
Dalian Zhixing v Shenyang Urban Super League · Sat 11:35	Under 1.5	26.2%	16.1%	+10.1 pts
Havelse v Stuttgart II 3. Liga · Sat 12:00	Under 1.5	25%	15.4%	+9.6 pts
Dunfermline v Ayr Utd Championship · Sat 14:00	Over 4.5	20%	12.5%	+7.5 pts
Watford v Crawley Town League Cup · Sat 14:00	Under 1.5	28.5%	18.2%	+10.3 pts
Colchester v Southampton League Cup · Sat 16:30	Under 1.5	28.5%	18.2%	+10.3 pts
Hangzhou Greentown v Wuhan Three Towns Super League · Sat 11:35	Under 1.5	25.1%	16.2%	+8.9 pts
Valerenga v Bodo/Glimt Eliteserien · Sat 12:00	Under 1.5	19.4%	12.5%	+6.9 pts
Stoke City v Oldham League Cup · Sat 14:00	Away Win	20.6%	13.3%	+7.2 pts
Karlsruher SC v Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga · Sat 11:00	Under 1.5	28%	18.2%	+9.8 pts
Podbeskidzie v Lechia Gdansk I Liga · Sat 18:15	Under 1.5	27.5%	18.2%	+9.4 pts
NEC Nijmegen v Telstar Eredivisie · Sat 14:30	Under 1.5	22.9%	15.4%	+7.5 pts
FC Ingolstadt 04 v Würzburger Kickers 3. Liga · Sat 12:00	Under 1.5	26.6%	18.2%	+8.4 pts
Kelty Hearts v Stirling Albion League Two · Sat 14:00	Under 1.5	33.6%	23.1%	+10.5 pts
Boca Juniors v Velez Sarsfield Liga Profesional Argentina · Sat 22:15	Over 3.5	24.2%	16.7%	+7.5 pts
Mjallby AIF v IF Elfsborg Allsvenskan · Sat 15:30	Under 1.5	38.6%	27%	+11.7 pts
Queen of the South v Peterhead League One · Sat 14:00	Under 1.5	31.4%	22.2%	+9.2 pts
Mlada Boleslav v Sparta Praha Czech Liga · Sat 18:00	Home Win	35.3%	25%	+10.3 pts
Farul Constanta v Csikszereda Liga I · Sat 15:30	Under 1.5	32.2%	23.1%	+9.1 pts
Tigre v River Plate Liga Profesional Argentina · Sat 20:00	Home Win	37.7%	27%	+10.7 pts
Penafiel v Portimonense Segunda Liga · Sat 13:00	Under 1.5	38.4%	27.5%	+10.8 pts
Orgryte IS v AIK Stockholm Allsvenskan · Sat 13:00	Under 1.5	27.8%	20%	+7.8 pts
Crewe v Accrington ST League Cup · Sat 14:00	Under 1.5	33.4%	24.4%	+9 pts

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"Edge" = our model's probability minus the market-implied probability, in percentage points. Sports analytics for informational and entertainment purposes only — not betting or financial advice. 18+.