Toluca vs Monterrey Predicție
Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Predicție AI
Victorie sau egal dificil pentru Toluca
56%
23%
20%
Victorie gazdă
Egal
Victorie oaspeți
Predicție Toluca vs Monterrey: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 56% pentru victoria lui Toluca, 20% pentru Monterrey și 23% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 8 Nov 2026, 02:58.
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Timeline
Nicolás Castro
assist: Brian García
8'
⚽
1–0
Paulinho
assist: Nicolás Castro
23'
⚽
2–0
HT 2–0
▮
48'
Cesar Garza
Yellow Card
Paulinho
assist: Helinho
51'
⚽
3–0
▮
54'
Lucas Ocampos
Yellow Card
Helinho
Yellow Card
54'
▮
▮
54'
Orbelín Pineda
Yellow Card
⇄
57'
Hugo Cuypers
⇄ Iker Fimbres
⇄
57'
Ricardo Chávez
⇄ A. De Nigris
⇄
57'
Orbelín Pineda
⇄ Érick Aguirre
▮
59'
Óliver Torres
Yellow Card
▮
61'
Carlos Salcedo
Red Card
⇄
64'
Lucas Ocampos
⇄ Fidel Ambríz
⇄
64'
Óliver Torres
⇄ Stefan Medina
Alexis Vega
⇄ Jesús Ricardo Angulo
69'
⇄
Helinho
⇄ Federico Viñas
69'
⇄
▮
71'
Fidel Ambríz
Yellow Card
Franco Romero
⇄ Fernando Arce Juárez
76'
⇄
Érick Gutiérrez
⇄ Víctor Guzmán
76'
⇄
Paulinho
⇄ Pavel Pérez
84'
⇄
Jesús Gallardo
assist: Federico Viñas
90'
⚽
4–0
FT 4–0
Toluca
Match Stats
Monterrey
62%
Ball Possession
38%
1.45
Expected Goals (xG)
0.42
11
Total Shots
7
7
Shots on Goal
2
2
Shots off Goal
3
2
Blocked Shots
2
8
Shots insidebox
4
3
Shots outsidebox
3
6
Corner Kicks
5
2
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
493
Total passes
299
433
Passes accurate
230
11
Free Kicks
9
Toluca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Paulinho F | 9.2 | 84' | 2 | – | 4 | 14 (12%) | 1 |
| 8 Nicolás Castro M | 8.9 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 39 (34%) | 1 |
| 17 Brian García D | 7.5 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 27 (25%) | 1 |
| 13 Luan D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 76 (70%) | 3 |
| 11 Helinho M | 7.2 | 69' | – | 1 | 1 | 22 (17%) | 2 |
| 1 Hugo Gonzalez G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 46 (38%) | – |
| 24 Fernando Arce Juárez M | 7.1 | 14' | – | – | – | 20 (20%) | 1 |
| 20 Jesús Gallardo D | 7.0 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 36 (24%) | 1 |
| 16 Federico Viñas F | 6.9 | 21' | – | 1 | 2 | 8 (7%) | – |
| 25 Everardo López D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 86 (80%) | 2 |
| 35 Érick Gutiérrez M | 6.7 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 40 (35%) | 1 |
| 10 Jesús Ricardo Angulo M | 6.6 | 21' | – | – | – | 14 (14%) | – |
| 7 Víctor Guzmán M | 6.6 | 14' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | 2 |
| 5 Franco Romero M | 6.5 | 76' | – | – | – | 31 (28%) | 1 |
| 15 Pavel Pérez M | 6.4 | 6' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 9 Alexis Vega M | 6.3 | 69' | – | – | – | 14 (11%) | – |
Monterrey
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 203 A. De Nigris F | 6.6 | 33' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | – |
| 3 Gerardo Arteaga D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 23 (20%) | 1 |
| 99 Hugo Cuypers F | 6.5 | 57' | – | – | 1 | 9 (5%) | 1 |
| 11 Iker Fimbres M | 6.2 | 33' | – | – | – | 6 (4%) | 1 |
| 5 Fidel Ambríz M | 6.2 | 26' | – | – | – | 13 (11%) | 2 |
| 2 Ricardo Chávez D | 6.1 | 57' | – | – | 2 | 14 (8%) | 1 |
| 14 Érick Aguirre M | 6.0 | 33' | – | – | – | 12 (10%) | 1 |
| 9 Diego Rossi M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 18 (13%) | 2 |
| 1 Esteban Andrada G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (20%) | – |
| 7 Lucas Ocampos M | 5.8 | 64' | – | – | 3 | 16 (12%) | 1 |
| 18 Cesar Garza M | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (27%) | – |
| 33 Stefan Medina D | 5.7 | 26' | – | – | – | 13 (12%) | – |
| 25 Orbelín Pineda M | 5.6 | 57' | – | – | – | 14 (10%) | 1 |
| 8 Óliver Torres M | 5.1 | 64' | – | – | – | 22 (15%) | – |
| 4 Victor Guzmán D | 5.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (25%) | 1 |
| 13 Carlos Salcedo D | 4.9 | 61' | – | – | – | 37 (34%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Medium (56%)
At a glance
Analiza noastră
Victorie sau egal dificil pentru Toluca
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Toluca
WDDDD
Monterrey
LDLWW
Last 3 meetings
Toluca · 3W 0D 0L
Match summary
Toluca faces Monterrey in a Liga MX clash, with both teams showing varying forms this season. Toluca has a solid home record, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Monterrey's away performance has been inconsistent, allowing 1.5 goals per match. Key players to watch include Toluca's leading scorer, who contributes significantly to their attacking play, and Monterrey's robust defense, which has the potential to disrupt Toluca's rhythm. The match's outcome may hinge on Toluca's ability to exploit their offensive strengths against Monterrey's defensive setup.
Live insights
90'
Goal
85% sure
Toluca now leads 4-0 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.
90'
Goal
85% sure
Toluca now leads 5-0 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.
76'
time check
80% sure
Min 76: Toluca leads 3-0. Win probability: 100%. Comeback chance: 0%.
52'
Goal
85% sure
Toluca now leads 3-0 with 99.3% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 74.4%.
45'
half time
65% sure
Half-time: 2-0. Toluca leads. Win probability: 94.7%. Over 0.5 more goals: 79.9%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
56%
45%
Draw
23%
45%
Away
20%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Toluca
F. Viñas
8 gls
A. Vega
5 gls
Monterrey
L. Ocampos
7 gls
H. Cuypers
6 gls
D. Rossi
5 gls
AI match tools
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toluca vs Monterrey
3
Toluca Wins
0
Draws
0
Monterrey Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep 2026 | Toluca | 2 - 0 | Monterrey |
| 11 Jan 2026 | Monterrey | 0 - 1 | Toluca |
| 07 Dec 2025 | Toluca | 3 - 2 | Monterrey |
Toluca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | H Monterrey | W | 4 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | A Club America | D | 2 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | A Leon | D | 1 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | H Club Tijuana | D | 2 - 2 |
| 18 Oct | H Atletico San Luis | D | 1 - 1 |
Monterrey — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Toluca | L | 4 - 0 |
| 01 Nov | H Club Tijuana | D | 3 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | H Guadalajara Chivas | L | 0 - 1 |
| 22 Oct | A Puebla | W | 1 - 4 |
| 19 Oct | H CF Pachuca | W | 2 - 1 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Club America
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 36 | 21 | +15 | 29 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 29 |
| 3 |
Cruz Azul
|
15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 34 | 24 | +10 | 29 |
| 4 |
Atlas
|
16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 30 | -3 | 27 |
| 5 |
Santos Laguna
|
16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 25 |
| 6 |
Toluca
|
15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | +10 | 24 |
| 7 |
CF Pachuca
|
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 29 | 20 | +9 | 22 |
| 8 |
Club Tijuana
|
16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 22 |
| 9 |
Leon
|
15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 22 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 21 | +5 | 21 |
| 11 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 |
Club Queretaro
|
14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 19 |
| 14 |
Puebla
|
15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 16 |
| 15 |
Tigres UANL
|
15 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 |
Atlante FC
|
16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 14 |
| 17 |
Necaxa
|
16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 13 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 34 | -21 | 11 |
Monterrey
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Almeyda
1
Andrada
3
Arteaga
13
Salcedo
4
Guzmán
2
Chávez
25
Pineda
8
Torres
7
Ocampos
9
Rossi
18
Cantu
99
Cuypers
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | E. Andrada | G |
| 2 | R. Chávez | D |
| 4 | V. Guzmán | D |
| 13 | C. Salcedo | D |
| 3 | G. Arteaga | D |
| 8 | Óliver Torres | M |
| 25 | O. Pineda | M |
| 18 | Cesar Garza Cantu | M |
| 9 | D. Rossi | M |
| 7 | L. Ocampos | M |
| 99 | H. Cuypers | F |
Substitutes
| 14 | É. Aguirre | M |
| 5 | F. Ambríz | M |
| 17 | J. Corona | M |
| 22 | L. Cárdenas | G |
| 11 | Iker Jareth Fimbres Ochoa | M |
| 33 | S. Medina | D |
| 21 | L. Reyes | D |
| 30 | J. Rodríguez | M |
| 203 | A. De Nigris | F |
| 27 | R. de la Rosa | F |
Toluca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Mohamed
1
González
20
Gallardo
25
López
13
Luan
17
García
35
Gutiérrez
5
Romero
9
Vega
8
Castro
11
Helinho
26
Paulinho
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | H. González | G |
| 17 | B. García | D |
| 13 | Luan | D |
| 25 | E. López | D |
| 20 | J. Gallardo | D |
| 5 | F. Romero | M |
| 35 | É. Gutiérrez | M |
| 11 | Helinho | M |
| 8 | N. Castro | M |
| 9 | A. Vega | M |
| 26 | Paulinho | F |
Substitutes
| 22 | L. García | G |
| 10 | J. Angulo | M |
| 24 | F. Arce | M |
| 2 | D. Barbosa | D |
| 3 | A. Briseño | D |
| 29 | J. Díaz | M |
| 7 | V. Guzmán | M |
| 15 | P. Pérez | M |
| 19 | S. Simón | M |
| 16 | F. Viñas | F |