Toluca vs Monterrey Previsão

Liga MX · Apertura - 16

08 Nov 2026, 01:00

Post on X

Monterrey

Away

Chamada de IA Vitória ou empate difícil do Toluca

52%

29%

19%

Vitória do Mandante Empate Vitória do Visitante

Palpite Toluca x Monterrey: O Sportiko estima 52% de probabilidade de vitória para o Toluca, 19% para o Monterrey e 29% de empate. Atualizado 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Toluca

LWWWW

Monterrey

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Toluca · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

Toluca faces Monterrey in a Liga MX clash, with both teams showing varying forms this season. Toluca has a solid home record, averaging 1.8 goals per game, while Monterrey's away performance has been inconsistent, allowing 1.5 goals per match. Key players to watch include Toluca's leading scorer, who contributes significantly to their attacking play, and Monterrey's robust defense, which has the potential to disrupt Toluca's rhythm. The match's outcome may hinge on Toluca's ability to exploit their offensive strengths against Monterrey's defensive setup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

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Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Monterrey goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	11	6	3	1
1	13	14	5	1
2	11	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Toluca goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Players in form

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

Monterrey

L. Ocampos 5 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

74% Home (No Draw) 26% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

28% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

52% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.0%	6.2%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
1	12.9%	13.6%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.1%	9.3%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%
3	5.7%	4.8%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.2%	1.8%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Toluca	Draw	Monterrey
Toluca	34.0%	4.2%	1.2%
Draw	17.9%	19.1%	8.4%
Monterrey	1.8%	3.5%	10.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

22%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Toluca vs Monterrey

3 Toluca Wins

0 Draws

0 Monterrey Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
07 Sep 2026	Toluca	2 - 0	Monterrey
11 Jan 2026	Monterrey	0 - 1	Toluca
07 Dec 2025	Toluca	3 - 2	Monterrey

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Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Monterrey — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Cruz Azul	W	1 - 0
13 Sep	H Tigres UANL	D	0 - 0
07 Sep	A Toluca	L	2 - 0
03 Sep	A Club America	D	2 - 2
31 Aug	H Atletico San Luis	L	1 - 3

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.