Atalanta vs Parma Prognoza

Serie A · Regular Season - 10

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Parma

Away

Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo

Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Atalanta

64%

21%

15%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Atalanta vs Parma: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Atalanta na 64%, Parma na 15%, a remisu na 21%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 2 Nov 2026, 21:38.

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Match Report

Atalanta suffered a stunning home defeat to Parma in Serie A Matchday 10, going down 3–0 despite dominating possession and creating the better chances throughout. Giovanni Fabbian broke the deadlock just before half-time, giving the visitors a lead their underlying numbers barely supported, with Atalanta's expected goals figure of 3.17 dwarfing Parma's 0.36 at the final whistle.

The second half brought no relief for the hosts. Two minutes after the restart, Davide Zappacosta turned the ball into his own net to double Parma's advantage, and Simone Lontani added a third on 58 minutes to effectively end the contest. Atalanta's 70% possession and 20 total shots counted for nothing as Parma's clinical counter-attacking proved devastating.

It was a result that defied the pre-match numbers — our AI model had rated an Atalanta win most likely at 64%, a call that proved emphatically wrong. Atalanta's heavy rotation of substitutes in the final quarter suggested an early acceptance of defeat, leaving Parma to claim a thoroughly unexpected three points on the road.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 41'

Giovanni Fabbian assist: Vincent Sierro

⇄ 45'

Dominik Drobnic ⇄ Abdoulaye Ndiaye

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 47'

Davide Zappacosta Own Goal

⚽ 0–3 58'

Simone Lontani assist: Giovanni Fabbian

Éderson ⇄ Eljif Elmas

62' ⇄

Jonathan Rowe ⇄ Kamaldeen Sulemana

67' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Simone Lontani ⇄ Christian Ordoñez

⇄ 74'

El Bilal Touré ⇄ Nesta Elphege

⇄ 74'

Giovanni Fabbian ⇄ Matija Frigan

Nicola Zalewski ⇄ Lazar Samardžić

76' ⇄

Davide Zappacosta ⇄ J. Idele

76' ⇄

⇄ 89'

Vincent Sierro ⇄ Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

FT 0–3

Atalanta

Match Stats

Parma

70% Ball Possession 30%

3.17 Expected Goals (xG) 0.36

20 Total Shots 6

7 Shots on Goal 3

8 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 0

16 Shots insidebox 2

4 Shots outsidebox 3

8 Corner Kicks 5

4 Offsides 0

8 Fouls 10

0 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

656 Total passes 292

584 Passes accurate 227

8 Free Kicks 7

Atalanta

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
40 Relja Obrić D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	56 (51%)	5
59 Nicola Zalewski M	6.7	76'	–	–	1	53 (43%)	2
7 Kamaldeen Sulemana F	6.6	23'	–	–	1	17 (15%)	–
42 Giorgio Scalvini D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	95 (90%)	1
99 Eljif Elmas M	6.5	28'	–	–	–	36 (34%)	1
8 Mario Pašalić M	6.4	90'	–	–	2	64 (56%)	–
11 Jonathan Rowe M	6.4	67'	–	–	3	18 (16%)	–
17 Charles De Ketelaere M	6.3	90'	–	–	4	49 (37%)	1
47 Lorenzo Bernasconi D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	62 (57%)	–
13 Éderson M	6.2	62'	–	–	1	46 (41%)	2
10 Lazar Samardžić M	6.0	14'	–	–	1	17 (17%)	–
90 Nikola Krstović F	5.9	90'	–	–	6	13 (8%)	–
41 J. Idele M	5.8	14'	–	–	–	16 (16%)	–
29 Marco Carnesecchi G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
77 Davide Zappacosta D	5.2	76'	–	–	–	94 (86%)	2

Parma

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
80 Giovanni Fabbian M	8.6	74'	1	1	1	14 (12%)	1
30 Giovanni Daffara G	8.6	90'	–	–	–	31 (24%)	–
76 Simone Lontani F	7.9	67'	1	–	1	12 (8%)	1
4 Vincent Sierro M	7.7	89'	–	1	–	36 (29%)	4
32 Christian Ordoñez M	7.4	23'	–	–	1	20 (16%)	–
3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye D	7.3	44'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	3
41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia M	7.1	1'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
72 Dominik Drobnic D	7.1	46'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	–
20 Matija Frigan F	6.9	16'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
15 Enrico Delprato D	6.7	90'	–	–	1	28 (20%)	2
27 Sascha Britschgi M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	1
16 Mandela Keita M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	24 (20%)	7
14 Emanuele Valeri M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	3
37 Mariano Troilo D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	26 (16%)	2
23 Nesta Elphege F	6.4	16'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
19 El Bilal Touré F	6.3	74'	–	–	–	9 (4%)	–

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Confidence Medium (64%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Trudna wygrana lub remis Atalanta

Most likely score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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Atalanta

DLDDL

Parma

LWDLL

Last 3 meetings Atalanta · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Atalanta enters this Serie A clash against Parma with a solid home record, leveraging their attacking prowess, which has seen them score an average of 2.1 goals per match this season. Parma, on the other hand, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Both teams have experienced fluctuations in form, but Atalanta's tactical flexibility and strong midfield presence may give them an edge. Expect a high-paced encounter with Atalanta likely pushing for an early goal to assert control.

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Parma leads 0-3. Win probability: 99.4%. Comeback chance: 0.6%.

59' Goal 85% sure

Parma now leads 0-3 with 96.4% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 67.4%.

48' Goal 85% sure

Parma now leads 0-2 with 78.7% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 77.7%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Parma leads. Win probability: 49.5%. Over 0.5 more goals: 79.9%.

42' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Parma win: 48.1%. BTTS: 71.1%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

64%

45%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

15%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Atalanta

N. Krstović 6 gls

Parma

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Atalanta vs Parma

1 Atalanta Wins

1 Draws

1 Parma Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Jan 2026	Atalanta	4 - 0	Parma
30 Aug 2025	Parma	1 - 1	Atalanta
25 May 2025	Atalanta	2 - 3	Parma

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Atalanta — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Nov	H Kairat Almaty	D	1 - 1
02 Nov	H Parma	L	0 - 3
29 Oct	A Fiorentina	D	2 - 2
25 Oct	H Frosinone	D	4 - 4
22 Oct	A Ajax	L	2 - 0

Parma — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Bologna	L	1 - 2
02 Nov	A Atalanta	W	0 - 3
28 Oct	H Udinese	D	0 - 0
24 Oct	A Lazio	L	2 - 1
19 Oct	H Torino	L	0 - 3

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	24	8	+16	28
2	AS Roma	11	8	3	0	31	10	+21	27
3	Inter	10	8	1	1	26	13	+13	25
4	Como	10	7	2	1	18	8	+10	23
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	21	12	+9	21
6	Frosinone	11	6	2	3	24	15	+9	20
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	13	10	+3	17
8	Bologna	11	5	2	4	16	14	+2	17
9	Cagliari	11	5	1	5	10	15	-5	16
10	Napoli	10	4	2	4	17	13	+4	14
11	Torino	11	4	2	5	15	17	-2	14
12	Genoa	10	4	1	5	10	14	-4	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	16	20	-4	11
14	Lecce	11	3	1	7	12	22	-10	10
15	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	15	23	-8	8
16	Parma	11	2	2	7	9	17	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	11	2	2	7	16	29	-13	8
18	Monza	10	2	1	7	17	24	-7	7
19	Venezia	11	2	0	9	8	21	-13	6
20	Udinese	11	1	2	8	12	25	-13	5

Atalanta

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: M. Sarri

29 Carnesecchi

47 Bernasconi

40 ObriÄ

42 Scalvini

77 Zappacosta

8 Pasalic

13 Éderson

11 Rowe

17 Ketelaere

59 Zalewski

90 Krstović

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
29	M. Carnesecchi	G
77	D. Zappacosta	D
42	G. Scalvini	D
40	R. ObriÄ	D
47	L. Bernasconi	D
13	Éderson	M
8	Mario Pasalic	M
59	N. Zalewski	M
17	C. De Ketelaere	M
11	J. Rowe	M
90	N. Krstović	F

Substitutes

99	E. Elmas	M
41	J. Idele	M
53	M. Plaia	D
10	L. Samardžić	M
51	M. Sonzogni	G
57	M. Sportiello	G
7	K. Sulemana	F
46	Sergej Levak	M

Parma

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: A. Gilardino

30 Daffara

72 Drobnic

37 Troilo

15 Prato

14 Valeri

16 Keita

4 Sierro

80 Fabbian

27 Britschgi

76 Lontani

19 Touré

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
30	G. Daffara	G
15	E. Del Prato	D
37	M. Troilo	D
72	D. Drobnic	D
27	S. Britschgi	M
80	G. Fabbian	M
4	V. Sierro	M
16	M. Keita	M
14	E. Valeri	M
19	E. Touré	F
76	S. Lontani	F

Substitutes

8	B. Cremaschi	M
9	D. Romero	F
32	C. Ordoñez	M
41	H. Nicolussi	M
3	A. N'Diaye	D
47	Abdou Konate	M
22	S. Ghidotti	G
20	M. Frigan	F
23	N. Elphege	F
34	Diego Carlos	D
7	Ousmane Diallo	F
40	E. Corvi	G
29	F. Carboni	D
11	P. Almqvist	F