Bournemouth vs Leeds Prediction
Bournemouth vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives Bournemouth a 50% chance of winning, Leeds 16% and the draw 34%. Last updated 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
A first half of cards but no goals gave way to a dramatic second period at the Vitality Stadium. Eli Junior Kroupi, who had been booked earlier in the match, broke the deadlock on 60 minutes to put Leeds ahead, before James Hill's own goal three minutes later levelled things up for Bournemouth. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bournemouth win as the most likely outcome at 50%, though the match ultimately ended in a share of the points.
The closing stages produced further twists. Rayan restored Leeds' lead on 85 minutes, only for Sean Longstaff to equalise deep into stoppage time and secure a point for Bournemouth. A VAR review then cancelled what would have been a late winner for Evanilson, with the striker subsequently picking up a yellow card in the final moments.
Bournemouth dominated possession at 60% and created the greater volume of chances, registering 17 total shots and 12 corner kicks to Leeds' one, though an expected goals figure of 1.65 to 0.81 ultimately went unrewarded as both sides had to settle for a 2–2 draw.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Bournemouth
Match Stats
Bournemouth
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Eli Junior Kroupi M | 8.2 | 73' | 1 | – | 1 | 21 (18%) | – |
| 3 Adrien Truffert D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 59 (53%) | 3 |
| 8 Alex Scott M | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 60 (51%) | 1 |
| 5 Marcos Senesi D | 7.3 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 74 (55%) | – |
| 37 Rayan F | 7.0 | 23' | 1 | – | 2 | 4 (3%) | – |
| 10 Ryan Christie M | 7.0 | 73' | – | – | 2 | 32 (25%) | – |
| 20 Álex Jiménez D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (40%) | 3 |
| 12 Tyler Adams M | 6.9 | 17' | – | 1 | – | 12 (9%) | – |
| 21 Amine Adli F | 6.9 | 17' | – | – | – | 13 (11%) | – |
| 1 Đorđe Petrović G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (9%) | – |
| 16 Marcus Tavernier M | 6.5 | 89' | – | – | – | 38 (32%) | 1 |
| 27 Alex Tóth M | 6.5 | 8' | – | – | – | 3 (3%) | – |
| 7 David Brooks M | 6.3 | 67' | – | – | 1 | 25 (17%) | – |
| 23 James Hill D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 46 (38%) | 2 |
| 9 Evanilson F | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 19 (14%) | – |
Leeds
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 17 (13%) | 2 |
| 8 Sean Longstaff M | 7.5 | 15' | 1 | – | 1 | 4 (1%) | – |
| 5 Pascal Struijk D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (22%) | 3 |
| 4 Ethan Ampadu M | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 39 (33%) | 4 |
| 15 Jaka Bijol D | 7.2 | 64' | – | – | – | 18 (16%) | – |
| 11 Brenden Aaronson F | 7.0 | 84' | – | – | 1 | 24 (20%) | – |
| 26 Karl Darlow G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (17%) | 1 |
| 24 James Justin D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 29 (24%) | 3 |
| 22 Ao Tanaka M | 6.7 | 89' | – | – | – | 39 (37%) | 1 |
| 2 Jayden Bogle M | 6.7 | 45' | – | – | – | 15 (7%) | 4 |
| 14 Lukas Nmecha F | 6.7 | 26' | – | – | 2 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 29 Wilfried Gnonto F | 6.6 | 26' | – | – | 1 | 10 (6%) | 2 |
| 19 Noah Okafor F | 6.5 | 64' | – | – | 2 | 13 (10%) | 1 |
| 9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (13%) | – |
| 10 Joël Piroe F | 6.3 | 10' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 6 Joe Rodon D | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | 1 | 18 (11%) | 1 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
M. Tavernier
3 gls
D. Calvert-Lewin
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bournemouth vs Leeds
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2025 | Leeds | 2 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 30 Apr 2023 | Bournemouth | 4 - 1 | Leeds |
| 05 Nov 2022 | Leeds | 4 - 3 | Bournemouth |
Bournemouth — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Liverpool | L | 0 - 1 |
| 17 Sep | A Real Sociedad | W | 1 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | H Brentford | D | 2 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | H Lincoln | W | 4 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | A Newcastle | D | 2 - 2 |
Leeds — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Crystal Palace | D | 0 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | H Newcastle | W | 4 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | A Chelsea | L | 6 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Brighton | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brentford | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Bournemouth
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Andoni Iraola
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | D. Petrovic | G |
| 20 | A. Jimenez | D |
| 23 | J. Hill | D |
| 5 | M. Senesi | D |
| 3 | A. Truffert | D |
| 8 | A. Scott | M |
| 10 | R. Christie | M |
| 7 | D. Brooks | M |
| 22 | E. J. Kroupi | M |
| 16 | M. Tavernier | M |
| 9 | Evanilson | F |
Substitutes
| 29 | C. Mandas | G |
| 15 | A. Smith | D |
| 26 | E. Unal | F |
| 12 | T. Adams | M |
| 18 | B. Diakite | D |
| 21 | A. Adli | F |
| 11 | B. Doak | F |
| 27 | A. Toth | M |
| 37 | Rayan | F |
Leeds
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | K. Darlow | G |
| 24 | J. Justin | D |
| 15 | J. Bijol | D |
| 5 | P. Struijk | D |
| 2 | J. Bogle | M |
| 4 | E. Ampadu | M |
| 22 | A. Tanaka | M |
| 3 | G. Gudmundsson | M |
| 11 | B. Aaronson | F |
| 19 | N. Okafor | F |
| 9 | D. Calvert-Lewin | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | Lucas Perri | G |
| 7 | D. James | M |
| 23 | S. Bornauw | D |
| 6 | J. Rodon | D |
| 14 | L. Nmecha | F |
| 8 | S. Longstaff | M |
| 10 | J. Piroe | F |
| 29 | W. Gnonto | F |
| 40 | F. Buonanotte | M |