Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Prediction
Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná
AI call
Atletico Paranaense or draw
41%
29%
30%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Paranaense a 41% chance of winning, Bahia 30% and the draw 29%. Last updated 21 Sep 2026, 00:38.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
- 1st Half Home or Draw 75%
- Under 3.5 Goals 72%
- Away to Score 70%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
Lucas Esquivel
assist: Kerwin Calderón Vargas
16'
⚽
1–0
⚽
1–1
26'
Erick Pulga
▮
30'
Nicolás Acevedo
Yellow Card
Juan Felipe Aguirre
Yellow Card
38'
▮
Arthur Dias
Yellow Card
45'
▮
Leozinho
⇄ Jorge Rivaldo
45'
⇄
Juan Felipe Aguirre
⇄ Dudu
45'
⇄
HT 1–1
⇄
64'
Erick
⇄ Jean Lucas
⇄
64'
Ademir
⇄ Kauê Furquim
Jorge Rivaldo
assist: Kerwin Calderón Vargas
69'
⚽
2–1
⇄
73'
Nicolás Acevedo
⇄ Caio Alexandre
▮
74'
Kauê Furquim
Yellow Card
Kerwin Calderón Vargas
⇄ Bruno Zapelli
79'
⇄
Gilberto
⇄ Gilberto Junior
80'
⇄
⇄
85'
Alejo Véliz
⇄ Everaldo
⇄
85'
Rodrigo Nestor
⇄ Everton Ribeiro
Jorge Rivaldo
Yellow Card
89'
▮
Yellow Card
90'
▮
🖵
90+1'
Everaldo
Penalty confirmed
✗
90+5'
Everaldo
Missed Penalty
Red Card
90+6'
▮
FT 2–1
Atletico Paranaense
Match Stats
Bahia
60%
Ball Possession
40%
11
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
3
4
Shots off Goal
4
1
Blocked Shots
3
9
Shots insidebox
8
2
Shots outsidebox
2
6
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
2
8
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
490
Total passes
515
427
Passes accurate
456
13
Free Kicks
6
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37 Lucas Esquivel M | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 63 (56%) | 4 |
| 18 Kerwin Calderón Vargas F | 8.1 | 79' | – | 2 | 1 | 27 (24%) | – |
| 19 Jorge Rivaldo F | 7.5 | 44' | 1 | – | 1 | 5 (3%) | – |
| 16 Jádson M | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 61 (55%) | 1 |
| 1 Mycael G | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (19%) | – |
| 25 Dantas D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 53 (49%) | – |
| 4 Arthur Dias D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 60 (54%) | 4 |
| 14 Luiz Gustavo M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 51 (48%) | – |
| 7 Steven Mendoza M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 44 (37%) | – |
| 2 Gilberto Junior D | 6.4 | 10' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 10 Bruno Zapelli M | 6.4 | 11' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 1 |
| 33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D | 6.2 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 22 (21%) | – |
| 53 Dudu M | 6.2 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 12 (7%) | – |
| 12 Gilberto M | 6.1 | 80' | – | – | – | 45 (36%) | – |
| 21 Leozinho M | 6.0 | 46' | – | – | 1 | 17 (12%) | – |
Bahia
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Erick Pulga F | 7.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 23 (21%) | – |
| 1 Ronaldo G | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (24%) | – |
| 11 Rodrigo Nestor M | 6.9 | 85' | – | – | 2 | 42 (36%) | 2 |
| 33 David Duarte D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 59 (56%) | 1 |
| 46 Luciano Juba D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 72 (64%) | 2 |
| 4 Kanu D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 74 (68%) | 1 |
| 8 Caio Alexandre M | 6.5 | 17' | – | – | – | 30 (30%) | – |
| 44 Marcos Victor D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (40%) | 4 |
| 27 Everaldo F | 6.3 | 5' | – | – | 2 | – | – |
| 9 Alejo Véliz F | 6.3 | 85' | – | – | 2 | 22 (18%) | – |
| 57 Kauê Furquim F | 6.2 | 26' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 2 |
| 14 Erick M | 6.1 | 64' | – | – | 1 | 26 (22%) | 2 |
| 7 Ademir F | 6.1 | 64' | – | – | – | 11 (9%) | – |
| 10 Everton Ribeiro M | 6.0 | 5' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 6 Jean Lucas M | 6.0 | 26' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | – |
| 5 Nicolás Acevedo M | 5.9 | 73' | – | – | – | 52 (43%) | 3 |
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Confidence
Low (41%)
At a glance
Our lean
Atletico Paranaense or draw
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Atletico Paranaense
LLDLW
Bahia
LWDLW
Last 3 meetings
Atletico Paranaense · 0W 1D 2L
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
41%
10%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
30%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Atletico Paranaense
K. Viveros
21 gls
Bahia
Luciano Juba
11 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia
0
Atletico Paranaense Wins
1
Draws
2
Bahia Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Apr 2026 | Bahia | 3 - 0 | Atletico Paranaense |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Bahia | 1 - 1 | Atletico Paranaense |
| 10 Jul 2024 | Atletico Paranaense | 1 - 3 | Bahia |
Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Nov | H Vasco DA Gama | L | 1 - 3 |
| 30 Oct | A Gremio | L | 2 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A Vitoria | D | 1 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | H Palmeiras | L | 0 - 2 |
| 12 Oct | A Chapecoense-sc | W | 1 - 4 |
Bahia — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Nov | A Cruzeiro | L | 3 - 2 |
| 29 Oct | H Sao Paulo | W | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | A Santos | D | 1 - 1 |
| 18 Oct | H Flamengo | L | 0 - 3 |
| 11 Oct | H Mirassol | W | 1 - 0 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Flamengo
|
34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |
Palmeiras
|
34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62 | 23 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |
Cruzeiro
|
34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |
Fluminense
|
34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55 | 42 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |
Atletico Paranaense
|
34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51 | 43 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |
Bahia
|
34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50 | 45 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |
Atletico-MG
|
34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 |
RB Bragantino
|
34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |
Santos
|
34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50 | 49 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |
Sao Paulo
|
34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |
Botafogo
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 |
Coritiba
|
34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 |
Vasco DA Gama
|
33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 |
Mirassol
|
34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39 | 48 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 |
Vitoria
|
34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |
Internacional
|
34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |
Corinthians
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |
Gremio
|
34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |
Remo
|
34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense B
|
20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| 20 |
Chapecoense-sc
|
33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33 | 68 | -35 | 21 |
Bahia
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Rogério Ceni
1
Ronaldo
46
Juba
4
Kanu
33
Duarte
44
Victor
11
Nestor
5
Acevedo
14
Erick
16
Pulga
9
Véliz
7
Ademir
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ronaldo | G |
| 44 | Marcos Victor | D |
| 33 | David Duarte | D |
| 4 | Kanu | D |
| 46 | Luciano Juba | D |
| 14 | Erick | M |
| 5 | N. Acevedo | M |
| 11 | Rodrigo Nestor | M |
| 7 | Ademir | F |
| 9 | A. Véliz | F |
| 16 | Erick Pulga | F |
Substitutes
| 10 | Éverton Ribeiro | M |
| 31 | Roman Gomez | D |
| 17 | G. Herrera | G |
| 6 | Jean Lucas | M |
| 57 | Çağatay Yılmaz | F |
| 3 | Marco Moreno | D |
| 77 | Ruan Pablo | F |
| 23 | M. Sanabria | F |
| 12 | Willian José | F |
| 66 | Zé Guilherme | D |
| 8 | Caio Alexandre | M |
| 27 | Everaldo | F |
Atletico Paranaense
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Odair Hellmann
1
Mycael
4
Dias
33
Aguirre
25
Dantas
37
Esquivel
14
Gustavo
16
Jádson
12
Gilberto
7
Mendoza
21
Leozinho
18
Vargas
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mycael | G |
| 25 | Dantas | D |
| 33 | J. Aguirre | D |
| 4 | Arthur Dias | D |
| 12 | Gilberto | M |
| 16 | Jádson | M |
| 14 | Luiz Gustavo | M |
| 37 | L. Esquivel | M |
| 21 | Leozinho | M |
| 7 | S. Mendoza | M |
| 18 | K. Vargas | F |
Substitutes
| 53 | Dudu | M |
| 23 | Santos | G |
| 22 | C. Terán | D |
| 47 | Chiqueti | M |
| 5 | Felipinho | D |
| 10 | B. Zapelli | M |
| 2 | Gilberto | D |
| 3 | Léo | D |
| 6 | Derik | D |
| 27 | J. Portilla | M |
| 70 | Renan | F |
| 19 | Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto | F |