Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia Previsione

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

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Atletico Paranaense

Home

2 : 1

HT 1 - 1

Bahia

Away

Arena da Baixada, Curitiba, Paraná

Previsione AI Atletico Paranaense o pareggio

41%

29%

30%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia: Sportiko assegna a Atletico Paranaense una probabilità di vittoria del 41%, a Bahia del 30% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 21 Sep 2026, 00:38.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
1st Half Home or Draw 75%
Under 3.5 Gol 72%
Ospite a Segno 70%

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Timeline

Lucas Esquivel assist: Kerwin Calderón Vargas

16' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 26'

Erick Pulga

▮ 30'

Nicolás Acevedo Yellow Card

Juan Felipe Aguirre Yellow Card

38' ▮

Arthur Dias Yellow Card

45' ▮

Leozinho ⇄ Jorge Rivaldo

45' ⇄

Juan Felipe Aguirre ⇄ Dudu

45' ⇄

HT 1–1

⇄ 64'

Erick ⇄ Jean Lucas

⇄ 64'

Ademir ⇄ Kauê Furquim

Jorge Rivaldo assist: Kerwin Calderón Vargas

69' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 73'

Nicolás Acevedo ⇄ Caio Alexandre

▮ 74'

Kauê Furquim Yellow Card

Kerwin Calderón Vargas ⇄ Bruno Zapelli

79' ⇄

Gilberto ⇄ Gilberto Junior

80' ⇄

⇄ 85'

Alejo Véliz ⇄ Everaldo

⇄ 85'

Rodrigo Nestor ⇄ Everton Ribeiro

Jorge Rivaldo Yellow Card

89' ▮

Yellow Card

90' ▮

🖵 90+1'

Everaldo Penalty confirmed

✗ 90+5'

Everaldo Missed Penalty

Red Card

90+6' ▮

FT 2–1

Atletico Paranaense

Match Stats

Bahia

60% Ball Possession 40%

11 Total Shots 10

6 Shots on Goal 3

4 Shots off Goal 4

1 Blocked Shots 3

9 Shots insidebox 8

2 Shots outsidebox 2

6 Corner Kicks 3

2 Offsides 2

8 Fouls 13

3 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 4

490 Total passes 515

427 Passes accurate 456

13 Free Kicks 6

Atletico Paranaense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
37 Lucas Esquivel M	8.2	90'	1	–	1	63 (56%)	4
18 Kerwin Calderón Vargas F	8.1	79'	–	2	1	27 (24%)	–
19 Jorge Rivaldo F	7.5	44'	1	–	1	5 (3%)	–
16 Jádson M	7.1	90'	–	–	–	61 (55%)	1
1 Mycael G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	–
25 Dantas D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	53 (49%)	–
4 Arthur Dias D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	60 (54%)	4
14 Luiz Gustavo M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	51 (48%)	–
7 Steven Mendoza M	6.5	90'	–	–	3	44 (37%)	–
2 Gilberto Junior D	6.4	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
10 Bruno Zapelli M	6.4	11'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	1
33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D	6.2	46'	–	–	1	22 (21%)	–
53 Dudu M	6.2	44'	–	–	1	12 (7%)	–
12 Gilberto M	6.1	80'	–	–	–	45 (36%)	–
21 Leozinho M	6.0	46'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	–

Bahia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Erick Pulga F	7.6	90'	1	–	1	23 (21%)	–
1 Ronaldo G	7.1	90'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	–
11 Rodrigo Nestor M	6.9	85'	–	–	2	42 (36%)	2
33 David Duarte D	6.8	90'	–	–	2	59 (56%)	1
46 Luciano Juba D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	72 (64%)	2
4 Kanu D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	74 (68%)	1
8 Caio Alexandre M	6.5	17'	–	–	–	30 (30%)	–
44 Marcos Victor D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	48 (40%)	4
27 Everaldo F	6.3	5'	–	–	2	–	–
9 Alejo Véliz F	6.3	85'	–	–	2	22 (18%)	–
57 Kauê Furquim F	6.2	26'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	2
14 Erick M	6.1	64'	–	–	1	26 (22%)	2
7 Ademir F	6.1	64'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
10 Everton Ribeiro M	6.0	5'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
6 Jean Lucas M	6.0	26'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	–
5 Nicolás Acevedo M	5.9	73'	–	–	–	52 (43%)	3

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Atletico Paranaense o pareggio

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.9%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

50%

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Atletico Paranaense

WDLDW

Bahia

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Atletico Paranaense · 0W 1D 2L

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Atletico Paranaense leads 2-1. Win probability: 85.6%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 14.4%.

69' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-1. Atletico Paranaense win: 82.2%. BTTS: 100%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 32.5%, Away win 2H: 25.2%.

27' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 35.4%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

17' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Atletico Paranaense win: 71.2%. BTTS: 62.8%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

10%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

30%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bahia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	7	5	2	1
1	8	14	7	3	1
2	7	9	5	2	1
3	4	4	3	1
4	1	2	1
5

↑ Atletico Paranaense goals · most likely 1–1 (13.9%)

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Players in form

Atletico Paranaense

K. Viveros 18 gls

Bahia

Luciano Juba 9 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Away Win

30%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Away Win

30%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

58% Home (No Draw) 42% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 30% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

24%

1.5

76%

50%

2.5

50%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	6.8%	5.1%	2.1%	0.6%
1	8.5%	13.9%	7.5%	3.1%	0.9%
2	7.4%	9.0%	5.5%	2.2%	0.7%
3	3.6%	4.4%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.3%	1.6%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Paranaense	Draw	Bahia
Atletico Paranaense	25.0%	4.4%	1.7%
Draw	14.9%	17.9%	11.2%
Bahia	2.3%	4.6%	18.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Paranaense vs Bahia

0 Atletico Paranaense Wins

1 Draws

2 Bahia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Apr 2026	Bahia	3 - 0	Atletico Paranaense
24 Nov 2024	Bahia	1 - 1	Atletico Paranaense
10 Jul 2024	Atletico Paranaense	1 - 3	Bahia

Vedi tutti i 10 incontri — Premium

Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Bahia	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Coritiba	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Cruzeiro	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	H Fluminense	D	3 - 3
24 Aug	A Botafogo	W	2 - 3

Bahia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Paranaense	L	2 - 1
14 Sep	H Remo	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	A RB Bragantino	W	2 - 3
30 Aug	H Internacional	W	3 - 2
23 Aug	A Vitoria	W	0 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Bahia

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Rogério Ceni

1 Ronaldo

46 Juba

4 Kanu

33 Duarte

44 Victor

11 Nestor

5 Acevedo

14 Erick

16 Pulga

9 Véliz

7 Ademir

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ronaldo	G
44	Marcos Victor	D
33	David Duarte	D
4	Kanu	D
46	Luciano Juba	D
14	Erick	M
5	N. Acevedo	M
11	Rodrigo Nestor	M
7	Ademir	F
9	A. Véliz	F
16	Erick Pulga	F

Substitutes

10	Éverton Ribeiro	M
31	Roman Gomez	D
17	G. Herrera	G
6	Jean Lucas	M
57	Çağatay Yılmaz	F
3	Marco Moreno	D
77	Ruan Pablo	F
23	M. Sanabria	F
12	Willian José	F
66	Zé Guilherme	D
8	Caio Alexandre	M
27	Everaldo	F

Atletico Paranaense

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Odair Hellmann

1 Mycael

4 Dias

33 Aguirre

25 Dantas

37 Esquivel

14 Gustavo

16 Jádson

12 Gilberto

7 Mendoza

21 Leozinho

18 Vargas

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Mycael	G
25	Dantas	D
33	J. Aguirre	D
4	Arthur Dias	D
12	Gilberto	M
16	Jádson	M
14	Luiz Gustavo	M
37	L. Esquivel	M
21	Leozinho	M
7	S. Mendoza	M
18	K. Vargas	F

Substitutes

53	Dudu	M
23	Santos	G
22	C. Terán	D
47	Chiqueti	M
5	Felipinho	D
10	B. Zapelli	M
2	Gilberto	D
3	Léo	D
6	Derik	D
27	J. Portilla	M
70	Renan	F
19	Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto	F