Rio Ave vs Nacional Prediction
FT
Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
AI call
Rio Ave or draw
44%
29%
27%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Rio Ave vs Nacional prediction: Sportiko gives Rio Ave a 44% chance of winning, Nacional 27% and the draw 29%. Last updated 11 Oct 2026, 16:33.
Premium picks
Premium- Over 1.5 Goals 75%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 72%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 71%
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
32'
N. Kader
assist: Francisco Gonçalves
Sebastian Clemmensen
39'
⚽
1–1
HT 1–1
João Tomé
Yellow Card
50'
▮
João Tomé
Red Card
54'
▮
Diogo Bezerra
assist: Sebastian Clemmensen
57'
⚽
2–1
⚽
2–2
59'
N. Kader
Sebastian Clemmensen
⇄ Roland Galčík
63'
⇄
Miguel Patricío
⇄ Francisco Petrasso
63'
⇄
⇄
68'
Daniel Júnior
⇄ Fernando Nava
⇄
68'
Chiheb Labidi
⇄ Miguel Baeza
Jalen Blesa
Penalty confirmed
69'
🖵
Jalen Blesa
Penalty
72'
⚽
3–2
Jalen Blesa
Yellow Card
73'
▮
Diogo Bezerra
⇄ Diogo Nascimento
76'
⇄
Malik Sellouki
⇄ Simon Garcia
76'
⇄
Jalen Blesa
⇄ Tamblé Monteiro
78'
⇄
⇄
78'
Matchoi Djaló
⇄ Allen Obando
⇄
81'
N. Kader
⇄ Joel Silva
⇄
81'
Min-kyu Song
⇄ Stavros Gavriel
Roland Galčík
Yellow Card
90+1'
▮
FT 3–2
Rio Ave
Match Stats
Nacional
56%
Ball Possession
44%
1.74
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
11
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
5
0
Shots off Goal
7
4
Blocked Shots
1
6
Shots insidebox
9
5
Shots outsidebox
4
8
Corner Kicks
8
0
Offsides
3
7
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3
422
Total passes
315
360
Passes accurate
244
17
Free Kicks
7
Rio Ave
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 Sebastian Clemmensen M | 8.5 | 63' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 27 (26%) | 1 |
| 11 Jalen Blesa F | 7.3 | 78' | 1 | – | 2 | 20 (14%) | 1 |
| 7 Diogo Bezerra M | 7.0 | 76' | 1 | – | 1 | 27 (19%) | – |
| 30 Roland Galčík F | 6.8 | 27' | – | – | 1 | 7 (6%) | 1 |
| 39 Gustavo Mancha D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 64 (55%) | 1 |
| 79 Miguel Patricío M | 6.7 | 63' | – | – | 3 | 31 (28%) | – |
| 9 Tamblé Monteiro F | 6.6 | 12' | – | – | 1 | 2 (1%) | – |
| 17 Marios Vrousai D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (28%) | 3 |
| 32 Vitor Hugo G | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (23%) | – |
| 54 Georgios Liavas M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (41%) | 2 |
| 19 Malik Sellouki M | 6.4 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 26 (23%) | 1 |
| 23 Francisco Petrasso D | 6.2 | 27' | – | – | – | 6 (3%) | – |
| 5 Andreas Ndoj D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 66 (58%) | – |
| 3 Simon Garcia D | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 5 (2%) | – |
| 90 Diogo Nascimento M | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | – |
| 20 João Tomé D | 5.4 | 54' | – | – | – | 25 (24%) | – |
Nacional
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 N. Kader F | 8.5 | 81' | 2 | – | 3 | 10 (6%) | – |
| 33 Francisco Gonçalves D | 6.8 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 49 (43%) | 1 |
| 9 Allen Obando F | 6.6 | 12' | – | – | 2 | 1 (1%) | – |
| 12 Min-kyu Song M | 6.5 | 81' | – | – | – | 17 (14%) | 5 |
| 8 Miguel Baeza M | 6.4 | 22' | – | – | 1 | 6 (6%) | – |
| 88 Deivison Souza Brito D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 40 (31%) | 5 |
| 21 Williams Kokolo D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 18 (16%) | 1 |
| 17 Fernando Nava F | 6.2 | 22' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 38 Ze Vitor D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 53 (41%) | 1 |
| 15 Chiheb Labidi M | 6.1 | 68' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | – |
| 20 Matchoi Djaló M | 6.0 | 78' | – | – | 1 | 17 (14%) | 3 |
| 26 Joel Silva M | 5.9 | 9' | – | – | 1 | 6 (6%) | – |
| 11 Stavros Gavriel M | 5.8 | 9' | – | – | – | 5 (4%) | – |
| 1 Renato Marin G | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 19 (11%) | 1 |
| 31 Danel Dongmo M | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (17%) | 3 |
| 10 Daniel Júnior M | 5.4 | 68' | – | – | – | 21 (13%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (44%)
At a glance
Our lean
Rio Ave or draw
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Rio Ave
LLWWL
Nacional
LWLLL
Last 3 meetings
Rio Ave · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Rio Ave will host Nacional. Both teams have shown fluctuating form this season, with Rio Ave currently holding a slight edge in the standings. Key players to watch include Rio Ave's attacking midfielder, who has contributed significantly to their goal tally, and Nacional's defense, which has struggled against high-pressing teams. The match could hinge on Rio Ave's ability to convert possession into goals, as they have averaged a higher expected goals (xG) per match compared to Nacional. This contest promises to be competitive, as both teams seek to improve their league positions.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
44%
45%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
27%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Rio Ave vs Nacional
0
Rio Ave Wins
2
Draws
1
Nacional Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Nacional | 4 - 0 | Rio Ave |
| 17 Aug 2025 | Rio Ave | 1 - 1 | Nacional |
| 10 May 2025 | Nacional | 3 - 3 | Rio Ave |
Rio Ave — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | A Academico Viseu | L | 2 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | H Famalicao | L | 0 - 4 |
| 17 Oct | A Louletano | W | 0 - 1 |
| 11 Oct | H Nacional | W | 3 - 2 |
| 19 Sep | A Alverca | L | 1 - 0 |
Nacional — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Nov | A Arouca | L | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | H SC Braga | W | 1 - 0 |
| 17 Oct | A Sanjoanense | L | 1 - 0 |
| 11 Oct | A Rio Ave | L | 3 - 2 |
| 19 Sep | H Famalicao | L | 0 - 4 |
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | +21 | 30 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 8 | +19 | 25 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 11 | +13 | 24 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 21 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | +5 | 20 |
| 6 |
Academico Viseu
|
10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
| 7 |
GIL Vicente
|
10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 15 |
| 8 |
SC Braga
|
10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 |
Moreirense
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 |
Famalicao
|
11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 13 |
| 11 |
Alverca
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 |
Estrela
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 |
Vitória SC
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 |
Maritimo
|
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 8 |
| 15 |
Casa Pia
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 20 | -14 | 8 |
| 16 |
Nacional
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 |
| 17 |
Rio Ave
|
10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 7 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 19 | -14 | 2 |
Nacional
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Alexandre Santos
1
Bellucci
21
Kokolo
38
Vitor
33
Gonçalves
88
Deivison
31
Dongmo
15
Labidi
12
Min-Kyu
20
Djaló
10
Júnior
29
Kader
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Renato Bellucci | G |
| 88 | Deivison | D |
| 33 | Francisco Gonçalves | D |
| 38 | Zé Vitor | D |
| 21 | W. Kokolo | D |
| 15 | C. Labidi | M |
| 31 | D. Dongmo | M |
| 10 | Daniel Júnior | M |
| 20 | Matchoi Djaló | M |
| 12 | Song Min-Kyu | M |
| 29 | N. Kader | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz | D |
| 26 | Joel da Silva | M |
| 13 | João Gonçalves | G |
| 9 | A. Obando | F |
| 17 | F. Nava | F |
| 14 | Ivanildo Fernandes | D |
| 7 | M. Jensen | M |
| 11 | S. Gavriel | M |
| 8 | Miguel Baeza | M |
Rio Ave
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Vasco Seabra
32
Hugo
17
Vrousai
39
Mancha
5
Ntoi
20
Tomé
54
Liavas
79
Patricio
7
Bezerra
19
Sellouki
80
Clemmensen
11
Blesa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Vitor Hugo | G |
| 20 | João Tomé | D |
| 5 | A. Ntoi | D |
| 39 | Gustavo Mancha | D |
| 17 | M. Vrousai | D |
| 79 | M. Patricio | M |
| 54 | G. Liavas | M |
| 80 | S. Clemmensen | M |
| 19 | M. Sellouki | M |
| 7 | Diogo Bezerra | M |
| 11 | J. Blesa | F |
Substitutes
| 60 | Caike | D |
| 30 | R. Galčík | F |
| 27 | T. Medina | M |
| 44 | T. Nikitscher | M |
| 23 | F. Petrasso | D |
| 90 | Diogo Nascimento | M |
| 70 | A. Wenck | M |
| 8 | Ryan Guilherme | M |
| 99 | E. van der Gouw | G |
| 77 | D. Špikić | F |
| 9 | Tamble Monteiro | F |
| 3 | S. Garcia | D |