Rio Ave vs Nacional Previsione

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

11 Oct 2026, 15:00

Post on X

Nacional

Away

Previsione AI Rio Ave vince o pareggia

70%

24%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Rio Ave vs Nacional: Sportiko assegna a Rio Ave una probabilità di vittoria del 70%, a Nacional del 5% e al pareggio del 24%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 22.8%

Both teams to score

22%

Over 2.5 goals

30%

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Rio Ave

LDLLW

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Rio Ave · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga match, Rio Ave will host Nacional. Both teams have shown fluctuating form this season, with Rio Ave currently holding a slight edge in the standings. Key players to watch include Rio Ave's attacking midfielder, who has contributed significantly to their goal tally, and Nacional's defense, which has struggled against high-pressing teams. The match could hinge on Rio Ave's ability to convert possession into goals, as they have averaged a higher expected goals (xG) per match compared to Nacional. This contest promises to be competitive, as both teams seek to improve their league positions.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

70%

10%

Draw

24%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2
0	15	3	1
1	23	8	1
2	19	6	1
3	11	3
4	4	1
5	1

↑ Rio Ave goals · most likely 1–0 (22.8%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

24%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

93% Home (No Draw) 7% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

41% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

70% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

42%

1.5

58%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

26%

28%

18%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.4%	3.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
1	22.8%	8.0%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.5%	5.8%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	10.6%	3.2%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	4.4%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

42%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

35%

20%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rio Ave	Draw	Nacional
Rio Ave	45.1%	1.7%	0.2%
Draw	25.0%	19.3%	2.7%
Nacional	1.2%	1.9%	3.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rio Ave vs Nacional

0 Rio Ave Wins

2 Draws

1 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Jan 2026	Nacional	4 - 0	Rio Ave
17 Aug 2025	Rio Ave	1 - 1	Nacional
10 May 2025	Nacional	3 - 3	Rio Ave

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Rio Ave — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Alverca	L	1 - 0
14 Sep	H Estrela	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Santa Clara	L	4 - 0
28 Aug	H Sporting CP	L	0 - 4
22 Aug	A Estoril	W	0 - 2

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.