Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 2

17 Aug 2026, 19:15

Post on X

Moreirense

Away

AI call Difficult Moreirense win or draw

19%

29%

51%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Arouca vs Moreirense prediction: Sportiko gives Arouca a 19% chance of winning, Moreirense 51% and the draw 29%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 16:49.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.8%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Arouca

WWDLW

Moreirense

WDLWL

Last 3 meetings Arouca · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Arouca faces Moreirense in a Primeira Liga clash. Arouca has shown a solid home record, averaging 1.5 goals per game, while Moreirense struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per game this season. Both teams have similar possession stats, hovering around 50%, but Arouca holds a slight edge in passing accuracy at 82%. Key for Arouca will be capitalizing on set pieces, as Moreirense has been vulnerable in that area. Expect a competitive match with Arouca likely looking to maintain their home form.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Moreirense goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	11	13	11	5	2	1
1	7	14	9	5	2	1
2	3	5	4	2	1
3	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Arouca goals · most likely 1–1 (13.8%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

51%

Draw

29%

Home Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

51%

Draw

29%

Home Win

19%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

73% Away (No Draw) 27% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 7% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 19% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.4%	13.1%	11.0%	5.5%	2.1%
1	6.5%	13.8%	9.1%	4.6%	1.7%
2	3.4%	5.1%	3.8%	1.9%	0.7%
3	0.9%	1.4%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arouca	Draw	Moreirense
Arouca	10.7%	3.8%	2.0%
Draw	8.3%	19.6%	18.7%
Moreirense	1.1%	3.9%	31.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

69%

0.5

31%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arouca vs Moreirense

2 Arouca Wins

0 Draws

1 Moreirense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Mar 2026	Moreirense	0 - 1	Arouca
02 Nov 2025	Arouca	0 - 2	Moreirense
24 Jan 2025	Arouca	1 - 0	Moreirense

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Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
16 May	H Tondela	W	3 - 1
11 May	A GIL Vicente	W	1 - 3
02 May	H Santa Clara	D	2 - 2
24 Apr	A Alverca	L	2 - 1
19 Apr	H Estrela	W	1 - 0

Moreirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H Amarante	W	2 - 0
16 May	H AVS	D	0 - 0
11 May	A Tondela	L	2 - 0
02 May	H Estrela	W	3 - 2
25 Apr	A Benfica	L	4 - 1

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	D	GF	GA	Pts
1	Famalicao	1	1	1	1	1
2	Estoril	1	1	1	1	1
3	Estrela	0	0	0	0	0
4	Guimaraes	0	0	0	0	0
5	GIL Vicente	0	0	0	0	0
6	Rio Ave	0	0	0	0	0
7	Santa Clara	0	0	0	0	0
8	Moreirense	0	0	0	0	0
9	FC Porto	0	0	0	0	0
10	Sporting CP	0	0	0	0	0
11	Benfica	0	0	0	0	0
12	Maritimo	0	0	0	0	0
13	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0
14	Nacional	0	0	0	0	0
15	Arouca	0	0	0	0	0
16	Casa Pia	0	0	0	0	0
17	Academico Viseu	0	0	0	0	0
18	Alverca	0	0	0	0	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.