Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction
Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction: Sportiko gives Bournemouth a 44% chance of winning, Sunderland 27% and the draw 29%. Last updated 18 Oct 2026, 14:59.
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Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- Under 3.5 Goals 73%
Match Report
Bournemouth claimed a comfortable 2–0 Premier League victory over Sunderland, with the outcome shaped early by a red card that left the visitors chasing the game for the majority of the contest. Marcus Tavernier opened the scoring in just the sixth minute, and when Kevin Danso was dismissed in the 17th, Sunderland's task became near-impossible.
The hosts dominated throughout, finishing with 65% possession, 29 total shots and an expected goals figure of 4.46 compared to Sunderland's 0.13 — a statistical gulf that reflected the one-sided nature of the afternoon. Evanilson added a second three minutes into the second half to put the result beyond doubt. Sunderland, meanwhile, failed to register a single shot on target across the entire 90 minutes.
Our pre-match AI model had flagged a Bournemouth win as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that proved correct. The result lifts Bournemouth's early-season momentum, while Sunderland's afternoon was further disrupted by a flurry of yellow cards and substitutions that underlined the difficulty of playing the final 70-plus minutes a man down.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Bournemouth
Match Stats
Bournemouth
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Evanilson F | 9.0 | 79' | 1 | 1 | 6 | 18 (13%) | 2 |
| 16 Marcus Tavernier M | 8.0 | 79' | 1 | – | 3 | 41 (31%) | – |
| 5 James Hill D | 7.9 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 76 (62%) | 2 |
| 3 Adrien Truffert D | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 55 (47%) | – |
| 14 António Silva D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 83 (76%) | 1 |
| 15 Adam Smith D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 50 (45%) | – |
| 4 Lewis Cook M | 7.2 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 32 (27%) | 2 |
| 37 Rayan M | 7.0 | 89' | – | – | 7 | 28 (23%) | 1 |
| 18 Bafodé Diakité D | 7.0 | 1' | – | – | – | 10 (10%) | – |
| 12 Tyler Adams M | 6.9 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 64 (57%) | 1 |
| 10 Ryan Christie M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 38 (26%) | 1 |
| 11 Ben Gannon-Doak F | 6.6 | 1' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 19 J. Kluivert F | 6.5 | 28' | – | – | 3 | 12 (10%) | 1 |
| 21 Amine Adli F | 6.5 | 11' | – | – | 1 | 12 (11%) | – |
| 30 Álvaro Rodriguez F | 6.4 | 11' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 1 Đorđe Petrović G | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (16%) | – |
Sunderland
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Noah Sadiki M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (27%) | – |
| 34 Granit Xhaka M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (34%) | 2 |
| 57 Timur Tuterov F | 6.2 | 59' | – | – | – | 7 (3%) | 1 |
| 13 Luke O'Nien M | 6.1 | 31' | – | – | – | 11 (4%) | 1 |
| 17 Reinildo Mandava D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (20%) | 1 |
| 28 Enzo Le Fée M | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 29 (22%) | 3 |
| 11 Chris Rigg M | 6.0 | 65' | – | – | – | 13 (11%) | 2 |
| 19 Habib Diarra M | 5.9 | 31' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 22 R. Roefs G | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (13%) | – |
| 29 Jules Ahoka M | 5.7 | 25' | – | – | – | 7 (3%) | – |
| 32 Trai Hume M | 5.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 25 (16%) | – |
| 20 Nordi Mukiele D | 5.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (13%) | 1 |
| 15 Omar Alderete D | 5.1 | 59' | – | – | – | 22 (12%) | – |
| 4 Kevin Danso D | 5.1 | 17' | – | – | 1 | 11 (9%) | – |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
M. Tavernier
5 gls
Evanilson
4 gls
B. Brobbey
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Bournemouth vs Sunderland
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Bournemouth | 1 - 1 | Sunderland |
| 29 Nov 2025 | Sunderland | 3 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 29 Apr 2017 | Sunderland | 0 - 1 | Bournemouth |
Bournemouth — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A Sparta Praha | W | 1 - 3 |
| 31 Oct | H Leeds | W | 2 - 0 |
| 28 Oct | H Aston Villa | W | 3 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Manchester United | W | 0 - 3 |
| 22 Oct | H AC Milan | W | 3 - 0 |
Sunderland — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | H Dinamo Zagreb | L | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | A Coventry | L | 3 - 1 |
| 28 Oct | H Brentford | W | 3 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Leeds | D | 0 - 0 |
| 22 Oct | A Lech Poznan | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 27 |
| 2 |
Manchester City
|
10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 24 | 7 | +17 | 19 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
|
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 16 |
| 5 |
Everton
|
10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 16 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 15 |
| 7 |
Brentford
|
9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 14 |
| 8 |
Leeds
|
10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 12 |
| 10 |
Tottenham
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 11 |
Newcastle
|
10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
| 12 |
Aston Villa
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 |
Hull City
|
10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| 14 |
Ipswich
|
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 |
Fulham
|
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 |
Nottingham Forest
|
10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 17 |
Coventry
|
10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Manchester United
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 7 |
| 19 |
Crystal Palace
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 7 |
| 20 |
Sunderland
|
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
Bournemouth
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Rose
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Đ. Petrović | G |
| 15 | A. Smith | D |
| 5 | J. Hill | D |
| 14 | António Silva | D |
| 3 | A. Truffert | D |
| 12 | T. Adams | M |
| 10 | R. Christie | M |
| 37 | Rayan | M |
| 4 | L. Cook | M |
| 16 | M. Tavernier | M |
| 9 | Evanilson | F |
Substitutes
| 7 | D. Brooks | M |
| 11 | B. Doak | F |
| 21 | A. Adli | F |
| 24 | Juanlu Sánchez | M |
| 19 | J. Kluivert | F |
| 18 | B. Diakité | D |
| 6 | J. Soler | D |
| 20 | M. Di Gregorio | G |
| 30 | Á. Rodríguez | F |
Sunderland
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: R. Le Bris
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | R. Roefs | G |
| 20 | N. Mukiele | D |
| 4 | K. Danso | D |
| 15 | O. Alderete | D |
| 17 | Reinildo | D |
| 34 | G. Xhaka | M |
| 27 | N. Sadiki | M |
| 32 | T. Hume | M |
| 11 | C. Rigg | M |
| 28 | E. Le Fée | M |
| 57 | Timur Tuterov | F |
Substitutes
| 19 | H. Diarra | M |
| 29 | Jules Ahoka | M |
| 39 | M. Fofana | F |
| 10 | N. Angulo | F |
| 7 | C. Talbi | F |
| 6 | D. Methalie | D |
| 13 | L. O'Nien | M |
| 31 | M. Ellborg | G |
| 50 | J. Angulo | F |