Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction
FT
American Express Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
AI call
Difficult Arsenal win or draw
21%
26%
53%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Brighton vs Arsenal prediction: Sportiko gives Brighton a 21% chance of winning, Arsenal 53% and the draw 26%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 15:57.
Premium picks
Premium- 1st Half Over 0.5 76%
- 2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
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Timeline
Pascal Groß
assist: Charalampos Kostoulas
31'
⚽
1–0
Charalampos Kostoulas
Yellow Card
33'
▮
Charalampos Kostoulas
assist: Diego Gómez
45'
⚽
2–0
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Yellow Card
45+1'
▮
HT 2–0
Chema Andrés
assist: Pascal Groß
57'
⚽
3–0
⇄
60'
J. Timber
⇄ Martín Zubimendi
⇄
60'
Bruno Guimarães
⇄ Mikel Merino
Pascal Struijk
Yellow Card
71'
▮
⇄
73'
Martin Ødegaard
⇄ Viktor Gyökeres
⇄
73'
Christos Tzolis
⇄ Eberechi Eze
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
⇄ Costinha
76'
⇄
Charalampos Kostoulas
⇄ Georginio Rutter
76'
⇄
⇄
81'
Bukayo Saka
⇄ Max Dowman
Chema Andrés
⇄ Malick Yalcouyé
85'
⇄
Diego Gómez
⇄ Matt O'Riley
86'
⇄
Pascal Struijk
⇄ Michael Svoboda
86'
⇄
Maxim De Cuyper
Yellow Card
90+1'
▮
▮
90+7'
Declan Rice
Yellow Card
FT 3–0
Brighton
Match Stats
Arsenal
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
2
9
Shots off Goal
3
3
Blocked Shots
4
9
Shots insidebox
9
8
Shots outsidebox
0
5
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
10
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
336
Total passes
495
255
Passes accurate
418
9
Free Kicks
13
Brighton
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Pascal Groß M | 9.0 | 90' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 29 (24%) | 1 |
| 14 Chema Andrés M | 8.2 | 85' | 1 | – | 2 | 34 (26%) | – |
| 19 Charalampos Kostoulas F | 8.2 | 76' | 1 | 1 | 4 | 19 (14%) | 1 |
| 20 Costinha D | 7.4 | 14' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu D | 7.3 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 23 (21%) | – |
| 44 Luka Vušković D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (27%) | – |
| 21 Olivier Boscagli D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (17%) | 2 |
| 4 Pascal Struijk D | 7.1 | 86' | – | – | 1 | 48 (42%) | 1 |
| 25 Diego Gómez M | 7.0 | 86' | – | 1 | – | 31 (20%) | 5 |
| 30 Michael Svoboda D | 6.9 | 4' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | 1 |
| 35 Malick Yalcouyé M | 6.9 | 5' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | 1 |
| 26 Yasin Ayari M | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 21 (19%) | 1 |
| 1 B. Verbruggen G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 40 (24%) | – |
| 10 Georginio Rutter F | 6.6 | 14' | – | – | 1 | 3 (1%) | – |
| 29 Maxim De Cuyper M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (16%) | 3 |
| 33 Matt O'Riley M | 6.4 | 4' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | – |
Arsenal
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 J. Timber D | 6.7 | 60' | – | – | – | 25 (22%) | 2 |
| 14 Viktor Gyökeres F | 6.6 | 17' | – | – | – | 5 (3%) | – |
| 41 Declan Rice M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (50%) | 2 |
| 15 Ezri Konsa D | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 68 (66%) | – |
| 29 Kai Havertz F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 27 (23%) | – |
| 7 Bukayo Saka M | 6.3 | 81' | – | – | 2 | 21 (16%) | 1 |
| 8 Martin Ødegaard M | 6.2 | 73' | – | – | 1 | 41 (37%) | – |
| 17 Christos Tzolis M | 6.2 | 73' | – | – | – | 22 (19%) | 1 |
| 6 Gabriel Magalhães D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (55%) | 3 |
| 33 Riccardo Calafiori D | 6.0 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 41 (32%) | 2 |
| 39 Bruno Guimarães M | 5.9 | 60' | – | – | – | 38 (32%) | – |
| 36 Martín Zubimendi M | 5.9 | 30' | – | – | 1 | 13 (8%) | 1 |
| 10 Eberechi Eze M | 5.8 | 17' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | – |
| 56 Max Dowman M | 5.8 | 9' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 23 Mikel Merino M | 5.7 | 30' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | – |
| 1 David Raya G | 5.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (30%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Medium (53%)
At a glance
Our lean
Difficult Arsenal win or draw
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Brighton
WWWDL
Arsenal
LWWWW
Last 3 meetings
Brighton · 0W 1D 2L
Match summary
Brighton faces Arsenal in an intriguing Premier League clash. Brighton's attacking efficiency has been notable, with an average of 1.8 goals per match this season, while Arsenal boasts a solid defensive record, conceding only 0.9 goals per match. The match will test Brighton’s ability to break down Arsenal’s organized defense. Furthermore, Arsenal's midfield dominance could dictate the game's tempo, allowing them to control possession and create scoring opportunities. Both teams will be keen to secure points to bolster their positions in the league.
Live insights
75'
time check
80% sure
Min 75: Brighton leads 3-0. Win probability: 99.7%. Comeback chance: 0.3%.
58'
Goal
85% sure
Brighton now leads 3-0 with 98% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 62.9%.
45'
Goal
85% sure
Brighton now leads 2-0 with 84.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 74.8%.
45'
half time
65% sure
Half-time: 2-0. Brighton leads. Win probability: 84.5%. Over 0.5 more goals: 74.8%.
34'
Goal
70% sure
Goal! Score now 1-0. Brighton win: 55.1%. BTTS: 67.5%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
21%
10%
Draw
26%
45%
Away
53%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Brighton
P. Groß
3 gls
C. Kostoulas
2 gls
M. Yalcouyé
2 gls
Arsenal
B. Saka
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Brighton vs Arsenal
0
Brighton Wins
1
Draws
2
Arsenal Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 2026 | Brighton | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Brighton |
| 04 Jan 2025 | Brighton | 1 - 1 | Arsenal |
Brighton — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Arsenal | W | 3 - 0 |
| 16 Sep | A Manchester United | W | 2 - 3 |
| 13 Sep | A Coventry | W | 0 - 5 |
| 05 Sep | H Leeds | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | A Chelsea | L | 4 - 3 |
Arsenal — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Brighton | L | 3 - 0 |
| 15 Sep | A Ipswich | W | 2 - 4 |
| 12 Sep | A Sunderland | W | 0 - 2 |
| 09 Sep | A Napoli | W | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Chelsea | W | 2 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Arsenal
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Mikel Arteta
1
Raya
33
Calafiori
6
Magalhães
15
Konsa
12
Timber
39
Guimarães
41
Rice
17
Tzolis
8
Ødegaard
7
Saka
29
Havertz
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | David Raya | G |
| 12 | J. Timber | D |
| 15 | E. Konsa | D |
| 6 | Gabriel Magalhães | D |
| 33 | R. Calafiori | D |
| 41 | D. Rice | M |
| 39 | Bruno Guimarães | M |
| 7 | B. Saka | M |
| 8 | M. Ødegaard | M |
| 17 | C. Tzolis | M |
| 29 | K. Havertz | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | Kepa | G |
| 5 | P. Hincapié | D |
| 49 | M. Lewis-Skelly | D |
| 10 | E. Eze | M |
| 23 | Mikel Merino | M |
| 36 | Martín Zubimendi | M |
| 56 | M. Dowman | M |
| 14 | V. Gyökeres | F |
| 20 | N. Madueke | F |
Brighton
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: F. Hürzeler
1
Verbruggen
21
Boscagli
4
Struijk
44
Vušković
24
Kadıoğlu
13
Groß
14
Baixauli
29
Cuyper
26
Ayari
25
Gómez
19
Kostoulas
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | B. Verbruggen | G |
| 24 | F. Kadıoğlu | D |
| 44 | L. Vušković | D |
| 4 | P. Struijk | D |
| 21 | O. Boscagli | D |
| 14 | José María Andrés Baixauli | M |
| 13 | P. Groß | M |
| 25 | D. Gómez | M |
| 26 | Y. Ayari | M |
| 29 | M. De Cuyper | M |
| 19 | C. Kostoulas | F |
Substitutes
| 12 | P. David | F |
| 35 | M. Yalcouyé | M |
| 33 | M. O'Riley | M |
| 15 | I. Osman | F |
| 10 | G. Rutter | F |
| 30 | M. Svoboda | D |
| 20 | Costinha | D |
| 3 | J. Hadjam | D |
| 23 | J. Steele | G |