Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction
Newcastle vs Bournemouth prediction: Sportiko gives Newcastle a 45% chance of winning, Bournemouth 29% and the draw 26%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 13:26.
Premium picks
Premium- Away to Score 75%
- 1st Half Over 0.5 72%
Match Report
Newcastle came from behind to claim a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth in a lively Premier League encounter at St. James' Park. Bournemouth made a bright start, with Marcus Tavernier opening the scoring in the ninth minute before a Malick Thiaw own goal put the visitors 2–0 up heading into the break. Newcastle halved the deficit almost immediately through Harvey Barnes in the 37th minute, giving the hosts a foothold heading into the interval.
The second half saw Newcastle dominate possession at 57% but struggle to convert, managing only two shots on target compared to Bournemouth's five. A flurry of substitutions and yellow cards disrupted the flow, with both sides picking up multiple bookings across the ninety minutes. Jacob Ramsey's late equaliser in the 88th minute rescued a point for Newcastle and ensured the spoils were shared.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Newcastle win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that reflected the home side's underlying pressure even if the result fell short of a victory. The draw leaves both clubs with points on the board after an entertaining afternoon.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Newcastle
Match Stats
Newcastle
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 Jacob Ramsey M | 7.5 | 27' | 1 | – | 1 | 16 (13%) | – |
| 11 Harvey Barnes M | 7.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 2 | 20 (16%) | – |
| 4 Sven Botman D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 68 (59%) | 1 |
| 21 Lukáš Horníček G | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (24%) | – |
| 3 Lewis Hall D | 6.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 48 (41%) | 1 |
| 20 Matías Fernández-Pardo F | 6.5 | 27' | – | – | – | 7 (5%) | – |
| 19 Anthony Elanga M | 6.4 | 78' | – | – | – | 13 (8%) | 2 |
| 9 Yoane Wissa F | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (17%) | – |
| 37 Amar Dedić D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 39 (31%) | – |
| 6 Nico González M | 6.2 | 77' | – | – | – | 48 (40%) | – |
| 28 Joe Willock M | 6.1 | 63' | – | – | 2 | 18 (16%) | 1 |
| 14 Sean Steur M | 6.0 | 13' | – | – | – | 11 (10%) | – |
| 23 Jacob Murphy M | 6.0 | 12' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 67 Lewis Miley M | 5.9 | 63' | – | – | – | 30 (24%) | – |
| 12 Malick Thiaw D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (51%) | – |
Bournemouth
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Marcus Tavernier M | 8.2 | 89' | 1 | – | 5 | 31 (27%) | 1 |
| 14 António Silva D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 41 (35%) | 1 |
| 11 Ben Gannon-Doak F | 6.6 | 1' | – | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | 1 |
| 9 Evanilson F | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 20 (16%) | – |
| 29 Daniel Jebbison F | 6.5 | 1' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 19 J. Kluivert M | 6.4 | 76' | – | – | 2 | 9 (7%) | 1 |
| 8 Alex Scott M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 41 (32%) | – |
| 12 Tyler Adams M | 6.2 | 76' | – | – | – | 38 (31%) | 3 |
| 5 James Hill D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (32%) | – |
| 37 Rayan M | 6.1 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 13 (6%) | 1 |
| 7 David Brooks M | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 1 | – |
| 4 Lewis Cook M | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | – |
| 1 Đorđe Petrović G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 30 (19%) | – |
| 15 Adam Smith D | 5.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 20 (15%) | 1 |
| 3 Adrien Truffert D | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 30 (26%) | 3 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
J. Willock
2 gls
M. Tavernier
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Newcastle vs Bournemouth
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Newcastle | 1 - 2 | Bournemouth |
| 21 Sep 2025 | Bournemouth | 0 - 0 | Newcastle |
| 18 Jan 2025 | Newcastle | 1 - 4 | Bournemouth |
Newcastle — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Hull City | W | 2 - 1 |
| 14 Sep | A Leeds | L | 4 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | A Millwall | W | 0 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Bournemouth | D | 2 - 2 |
| 29 Aug | A Tottenham | W | 0 - 2 |
Bournemouth — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Liverpool | L | 0 - 1 |
| 17 Sep | A Real Sociedad | W | 1 - 2 |
| 12 Sep | H Brentford | D | 2 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | H Lincoln | W | 4 - 0 |
| 05 Sep | A Newcastle | D | 2 - 2 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Newcastle
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Horacio Melgarejo
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | L. Horníček | G |
| 37 | A. Dedić | D |
| 12 | M. Thiaw | D |
| 4 | S. Botman | D |
| 3 | L. Hall | D |
| 6 | Nico González | M |
| 67 | L. Miley | M |
| 19 | A. Elanga | M |
| 28 | J. Willock | M |
| 11 | H. Barnes | M |
| 9 | Y. Wissa | F |
Substitutes
| 20 | M. Fernandez-Pardo | F |
| 23 | J. Murphy | M |
| 1 | N. Pope | G |
| 2 | T. Livramento | D |
| 5 | F. Schär | D |
| 8 | A. Bamba | M |
| 14 | Sean Steur | M |
| 17 | B. Touré | F |
| 41 | J. Ramsey | M |
Bournemouth
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Rose
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Đ. Petrović | G |
| 15 | A. Smith | D |
| 5 | J. Hill | D |
| 14 | António Silva | D |
| 3 | A. Truffert | D |
| 12 | T. Adams | M |
| 8 | A. Scott | M |
| 37 | Rayan | M |
| 19 | J. Kluivert | M |
| 16 | M. Tavernier | M |
| 9 | Evanilson | F |
Substitutes
| 24 | Juanlu Sánchez | M |
| 11 | B. Doak | F |
| 10 | R. Christie | M |
| 7 | D. Brooks | M |
| 18 | B. Diakité | D |
| 6 | J. Soler | D |
| 20 | M. Di Gregorio | G |
| 29 | D. Jebbison | F |
| 4 | L. Cook | M |