Manchester United vs Manchester City Parashikim

Premier League · Regular Season - 4

Post on X

Manchester City

Away

Old Trafford, Manchester

Parashikim AI Manchester City ose barazim

32%

26%

42%

Fitore e ekipit vendas Barazim Fitore e mysafirit

Parashikimi Manchester United vs Manchester City: Sportiko i jep Manchester United 32% probabilitet fitese, Manchester City 42% dhe barazimit 26%. Përditësuar së fundmi 13 Sep 2026, 17:25.

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1st Half Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Manchester City claimed derby bragging rights at Old Trafford, edging out a tense Manchester derby 1–0 thanks to Erling Haaland's second-half strike. The match's defining moment came as early as the 23rd minute, when Phil Foden was dismissed with a red card, leaving City to navigate the remainder of the contest with ten men.

Despite the numerical disadvantage, City held firm and broke the deadlock on the hour mark. Haaland netted what proved to be the only goal of the game, with VAR subsequently confirming the effort stood. United, who dominated possession at 55% and registered 16 total shots to City's six, were unable to convert their territorial advantage into anything meaningful, managing just three shots on target throughout.

The closing stages grew fractious, with yellow cards shown to Gvardiol, Enzo Fernández, and Harry Maguire in quick succession between the 79th and 81st minutes. Our pre-match AI model had rated a City win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct despite the considerable challenge of playing the final hour a man short.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 23'

Phil Foden Red Card

⇄ 45'

Rayan Cherki ⇄ Iliman Ndiaye

▮ 45+1'

Yellow Card

HT 0–0

⚽ 0–1 60'

Erling Haaland

🖵 60'

Erling Haaland Goal confirmed

Youri Tielemans ⇄ Benjamin Šeško

67' ⇄

▮ 79'

Joško Gvardiol Yellow Card

▮ 80'

Enzo Fernández Yellow Card

Harry Maguire Yellow Card

81' ▮

⇄ 82'

Enzo Fernández ⇄ Nico O'Reilly

Marcus Rashford ⇄ Joshua Zirkzee

83' ⇄

FT 0–1

Manchester United

Match Stats

Manchester City

55% Ball Possession 45%

16 Total Shots 6

3 Shots on Goal 2

9 Shots off Goal 1

4 Blocked Shots 3

6 Shots insidebox 2

10 Shots outsidebox 4

6 Corner Kicks 7

4 Offsides 1

17 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

472 Total passes 396

411 Passes accurate 326

9 Free Kicks 17

Manchester United

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Bruno Fernandes M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	57 (51%)	2
37 Kobbie Mainoo M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	67 (65%)	–
13 Patrick Dorgu D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	40 (36%)	6
6 Lisandro Martínez D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	61 (53%)	3
18 Youri Tielemans M	6.7	67'	–	–	–	43 (38%)	2
5 Harry Maguire D	6.7	90'	–	–	2	58 (50%)	1
1 Senne Lammens G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
2 Diogo Dalot D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	38 (32%)	1
9 Marcus Rashford M	6.5	83'	–	–	3	28 (23%)	1
30 Benjamin Šeško F	6.4	23'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	–
10 Matheus Cunha F	6.3	90'	–	–	3	28 (23%)	1
11 Joshua Zirkzee F	6.3	7'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
19 Bryan Mbeumo M	6.2	90'	–	–	3	26 (19%)	1

Manchester City

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Erling Haaland F	7.7	90'	1	–	2	18 (11%)	–
27 Matheus Nunes D	7.7	90'	–	–	–	37 (34%)	2
3 Rúben Dias D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	48 (41%)	–
6 Marc Guéhi D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	53 (48%)	–
24 Joško Gvardiol D	7.4	90'	–	–	1	33 (30%)	4
10 Rayan Cherki M	7.2	46'	–	–	1	27 (24%)	–
7 Iliman Ndiaye F	6.9	44'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	1
1 Gianluigi Donnarumma G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	42 (25%)	–
33 Nico O'Reilly D	6.8	8'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
5 Elliot Anderson M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	52 (45%)	3
17 Enzo Fernández M	6.6	82'	–	–	2	31 (25%)	2
42 Antoine Semenyo M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	29 (21%)	1
47 Phil Foden M	6.0	23'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Analizat tona

Manchester City ose barazim

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.8%

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

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Manchester United

DLLWD

Manchester City

WWWWW

Last 3 meetings Manchester United · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In this highly anticipated Manchester derby, Manchester United will face Manchester City in a crucial Premier League clash. Both teams have shown strong attacking form, with City averaging 2.5 goals per game this season, thanks to their dynamic front line led by Erling Haaland. United, meanwhile, has been solid defensively, conceding just 1 goal per match, but they will need to enhance their creativity in the midfield to break down City's compact defense. Key battles, particularly in midfield, will be critical, as United seeks to control possession while City looks to exploit transitions. This match could significantly impact their standings as both teams aim for Champions League qualification.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

32%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

42%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Manchester City goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	6	6	4	2	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	4	8	7	4	2	1
3	2	4	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Manchester United goals · most likely 1–1 (11.8%)

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Players in form

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes 3 gls

Manchester City

E. Haaland 5 gls

R. Cherki 3 gls

A. Semenyo 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

32%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

16%

1.5

84%

38%

2.5

62%

61%

3.5

39%

79%

4.5

21%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

32%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

57% Away (No Draw) 43% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

16%

1.5

84%

38%

2.5

62%

61%

3.5

39%

79%

4.5

21%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS Yes 35% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

23%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.4%	5.7%	6.1%	3.6%	1.6%
1	4.6%	11.8%	9.1%	5.3%	2.3%
2	4.4%	7.7%	6.7%	3.9%	1.7%
3	2.2%	3.8%	3.3%	1.9%	0.8%
4	0.8%	1.4%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

32%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

16%

25%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Manchester United	Draw	Manchester City
Manchester United	19.6%	5.6%	3.9%
Draw	10.9%	14.9%	17.2%
Manchester City	1.9%	3.8%	22.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

23%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Manchester United vs Manchester City

1 Manchester United Wins

1 Draws

1 Manchester City Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 Jan 2026	Manchester United	2 - 0	Manchester City
14 Sep 2025	Manchester City	3 - 0	Manchester United
06 Apr 2025	Manchester United	0 - 0	Manchester City

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Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fulham	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Brighton	L	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 1
10 Sep	H Sabah FA	W	4 - 0
06 Sep	A Everton	D	2 - 2

Manchester City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Sunderland	W	5 - 3
17 Sep	H Norwich	W	5 - 0
13 Sep	A Manchester United	W	0 - 1
08 Sep	A FC Porto	W	0 - 2
05 Sep	H Coventry	W	1 - 0

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Manchester United

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: M. Carrick

1 Lammens

13 Dorgu

6 Martínez

5 Maguire

2 Dalot

37 Mainoo

18 Tielemans

9 Rashford

8 Fernandes

19 Mbeumo

10 Cunha

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. Lammens	G
2	Diogo Dalot	D
5	H. Maguire	D
6	Lisandro Martínez	D
13	P. Dorgu	D
18	Y. Tielemans	M
37	K. Mainoo	M
19	B. Mbeumo	M
8	Bruno Fernandes	M
9	M. Rashford	M
10	Matheus Cunha	F

Substitutes

26	A. Heaven	D
3	N. Mazraoui	D
15	L. Yoro	D
17	Andrey Santos	M
7	M. Mount	M
31	S. Lacey	F
30	B. Šeško	F
12	K. Darlow	G
11	J. Zirkzee	F

Manchester City

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: E. Maresca

1 Donnarumma

24 Gvardiol

3 Dias

6 Guéhi

27 Nunes

5 Anderson

17 Fernández

42 Semenyo

10 Cherki

47 Foden

9 Haaland

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	G. Donnarumma	G
27	Matheus Nunes	D
6	M. Guéhi	D
3	Rúben Dias	D
24	J. Gvardiol	D
17	E. Fernández	M
5	E. Anderson	M
47	P. Foden	M
10	R. Cherki	M
42	A. Semenyo	M
9	E. Haaland	F

Substitutes

7	I. Ndiaye	F
28	G. Rulli	G
37	Allan	F
82	R. Lewis	D
45	A. Khusanov	D
33	N. O'Reilly	D
22	Vitor Nunes	D
8	M. Kovačić	M
32	A. Bouaddi	M