Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Parashikim

Premier League · Regular Season - 1

Post on X

Leeds

Away

Parashikim AI Nottingham Forest ose barazim

40%

28%

33%

Fitore e ekipit vendas Barazim Fitore e mysafirit

Parashikimi Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: Sportiko i jep Nottingham Forest 40% probabilitet fitese, Leeds 33% dhe barazimit 28%. Përditësuar së fundmi 22 Aug 2026, 15:55.

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1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Match Report

Nottingham Forest and Leeds United played out a cagey first half at the City Ground, with neither side able to create clear-cut chances. The most notable moment before the break came when Harry Wilson had a goal ruled out for offside via VAR at the 25-minute mark, while yellow cards for Ola Aina and Dominic Calvert-Lewin added some early needle to proceedings.

The second half followed a similar pattern of limited opportunities, reflected in the low expected goals figures of 0.28 and 0.33 respectively. A flurry of substitutions from both sides failed to significantly open the game up, and it appeared a goalless draw was the likeliest outcome. However, Anton Stach broke the deadlock in the 88th minute with a late winner to hand Leeds all three points and condemn Forest to defeat.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Nottingham Forest win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Leeds' victory was narrow but deserved on the balance of a tight contest, with the visitors edging both possession and shots on target across the ninety minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Ola Aina Yellow Card

18' ▮

🖵 25'

Harry Wilson Goal Disallowed - offside

▮ 32'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Jair Yellow Card

52' ▮

Dan Ndoye ⇄ Chris Wood

62' ⇄

⇄ 66'

Harry Wilson ⇄ Noah Okafor

Ola Aina ⇄ Luca Netz

74' ⇄

James McAtee ⇄ Xaver Schlager

74' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Brenden Aaronson ⇄ Sean Longstaff

⚽ 0–1 88'

Anton Stach

Murillo ⇄ Arnaud Kalimuendo

90+3' ⇄

FT 0–1

Nottingham Forest

Match Stats

Leeds

52% Ball Possession 48%

0.33 Expected Goals (xG) 0.28

7 Total Shots 8

2 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 2

1 Blocked Shots 5

4 Shots insidebox 4

3 Shots outsidebox 4

1 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 3

12 Fouls 7

2 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

269 Total passes 257

206 Passes accurate 190

77% Passes % 74%

0.33 goals_prevented 0.33

Nottingham Forest

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 James McAtee M	7.2	63'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	1
5 Murillo D	7.0	63'	–	–	–	37 (33%)	1
26 Matz Sels G	6.7	63'	–	–	–	20 (10%)	–
34 Ola Aina M	6.7	63'	–	–	1	24 (15%)	–
6 Ibrahim Sangaré M	6.6	63'	–	–	1	31 (24%)	–
11 Igor Jesus F	6.6	63'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	–
23 Jair D	6.5	63'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	2
14 Dan Ndoye F	6.3	62'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	1
31 Nikola Milenković D	6.3	63'	–	–	2	30 (23%)	–
3 Neco Williams M	6.3	63'	–	–	–	18 (12%)	1
10 Morgan Gibbs-White F	6.3	63'	–	–	1	26 (20%)	–
9 Chris Wood F	—	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

Leeds

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 James Justin M	7.3	63'	–	–	–	17 (10%)	6
1 James Trafford G	7.2	63'	–	–	–	26 (17%)	–
4 Ethan Ampadu M	7.2	63'	–	–	–	39 (31%)	2
15 Jaka Bijol D	7.0	63'	–	–	–	41 (35%)	1
11 Brenden Aaronson F	6.9	63'	–	–	1	14 (10%)	1
10 Harry Wilson F	6.9	63'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	2
6 Joe Rodon D	6.9	63'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	1
18 Anton Stach M	6.9	63'	–	–	1	25 (15%)	2
5 Tarik Muharemović D	6.3	63'	–	–	–	30 (27%)	–
9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F	6.3	63'	–	–	1	13 (5%)	–
2 Jayden Bogle M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	18 (11%)	–

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Analizat tona

Nottingham Forest ose barazim

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.2%

Both teams to score

64%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

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Nottingham Forest

LWDDL

Leeds

DWLDD

Last 3 meetings Nottingham Forest · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Nottingham Forest faces Leeds in an intriguing Premier League matchup. Both teams have shown varying degrees of form, with Nottingham looking to capitalize on their attacking prowess, averaging 1.3 goals per match last season. Leeds, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding 1.6 goals per match, which could be a critical factor. Set pieces and midfield control will be essential for both sides, particularly for Leeds to disrupt Nottingham’s rhythm. Expect a tactical battle with potential for high stakes as both teams seek to improve their standings early in the season.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	5	5	3	1
1	6	12	8	4	2
2	6	9	7	3	1
3	3	5	4	2	1
4	1	2	1	1
5		1

↑ Nottingham Forest goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Players in form

Nottingham Forest

No scorer data.

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS Yes 36% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

40%

2.5

60%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 17% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 35% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

17%

1.5

83%

40%

2.5

60%

62%

3.5

38%

80%

4.5

20%

91%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS Yes 36% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

18%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.8%	5.3%	5.1%	2.6%	1.0%
1	5.7%	12.2%	8.3%	4.2%	1.6%
2	5.7%	8.7%	6.6%	3.4%	1.3%
3	3.0%	4.7%	3.6%	1.8%	0.7%
4	1.2%	1.9%	1.4%	0.7%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

45%

1.5

55%

73%

2.5

27%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Nottingham Forest	Draw	Leeds
Nottingham Forest	21.6%	4.2%	2.2%
Draw	14.7%	15.4%	12.2%
Leeds	3.1%	5.2%	21.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

1 Nottingham Forest Wins

0 Draws

2 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Aug 2026	Nottingham Forest	0 - 2	Leeds
06 Feb 2026	Leeds	3 - 1	Nottingham Forest
09 Nov 2025	Nottingham Forest	3 - 1	Leeds

Shiko të gjitha 5 ndeshjet — Premium

Nottingham Forest — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Coventry	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Aston Villa	W	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Tottenham	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	A Liverpool	D	2 - 2
25 Aug	H Leeds	L	0 - 2

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Leeds

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: D. Farke

1 Trafford

5 Muharemović

15 Bijol

6 Rodon

24 Justin

4 Ampadu

18 Stach

2 Bogle

11 Aaronson

10 Wilson

9 Calvert-Lewin

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	James Trafford	G
6	Joe Rodon	D
15	Jaka Bijol	D
5	Tarik Muharemović	D
2	Jayden Bogle	M
18	Anton Stach	M
4	Ethan Ampadu	M
24	James Justin	M
10	Harry Wilson	F
11	Brenden Aaronson	F
9	Dominic Calvert-Lewin	F

Substitutes

23	Lucas Perri	G
65	Jayden Lienou	D
30	Nico Elvedi	D
50	Alfie Cresswell	M
8	Sean Longstaff	M
22	Ao Tanaka	M
7	Daniel James	F
19	Noah Okafor	F
14	Lukas Nmecha	F