Vitoria vs Cruzeiro Napoved

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

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Vitoria

Home

1 : 3

HT 1 - 0

Cruzeiro

Away

Estádio Manoel Barradas, Salvador, Bahia

UI napoved Cruzeiro ali neodločeno

30%

28%

42%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Vitoria proti Cruzeiro: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Vitoria na 30%, za Cruzeiro na 42%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 28%. Zadnja posodobitev: 20 Sep 2026, 21:04.

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1st Half Draw or Away 74%
Domači dosežejo gol 71%
Pod 3,5 gola 70%

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Timeline

Renê Sousa assist: Matheuzinho

39' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 41'

Jonathan Jesus Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Fagner ⇄ William Furtado

⇄ 45'

Wesley ⇄ Felipe Morais

Mateusinho ⇄ Emanuel Brítez

45' ⇄

Caique Gonçalves ⇄ Zé Vitor

45' ⇄

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 46'

Keny Arroyo assist: Kaio Jorge

⇄ 56'

Gabriel Rojas ⇄ Lucas Villalba

⇄ 56'

Zé Lucas ⇄ Matheus Henrique

⚽ 1–2 66'

Lucas Villalba assist: Keny Arroyo

Erick ⇄ Lucas Silva

69' ⇄

▮ 78'

Gerson Yellow Card

⇄ 81'

Gerson ⇄ Fabrício Bruno

Matheuzinho ⇄ Renato Kayzer

83' ⇄

Renê Sousa ⇄ Alex Bruno

83' ⇄

▮ 87'

Felipe Morais Yellow Card

⚽ 1–3 90+7'

Matheus Pereira assist: Keny Arroyo

FT 1–3

Vitoria

Match Stats

Cruzeiro

43% Ball Possession 57%

21 Total Shots 14

8 Shots on Goal 5

7 Shots off Goal 5

6 Blocked Shots 4

8 Shots insidebox 9

13 Shots outsidebox 5

8 Corner Kicks 2

4 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 19

0 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 6

393 Total passes 522

314 Passes accurate 460

18 Free Kicks 9

Vitoria

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
91 Renê Sousa F	7.5	83'	1	–	1	16 (13%)	–
10 Matheuzinho M	7.2	83'	–	1	2	37 (32%)	1
88 Zé Vitor M	6.9	44'	–	–	2	20 (18%)	3
6 Emmanuel Martínez M	6.9	90'	–	–	2	62 (55%)	1
25 Cacá D	6.8	90'	–	–	2	41 (38%)	1
95 Caique Gonçalves M	6.8	46'	–	–	–	21 (20%)	2
83 Jamerson D	6.6	90'	–	–	2	45 (36%)	–
9 Alex Bruno F	6.6	7'	–	–	1	1	–
12 Diego Tarzia M	6.5	90'	–	–	2	16 (9%)	1
20 Lucas Silva F	6.5	21'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	–
36 Luan Cândido D	6.4	90'	–	–	1	36 (28%)	1
79 Renato Kayzer F	6.3	7'	–	–	1	–	–
98 Mateusinho D	6.3	46'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	1
1 Lucas Arcanjo G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	34 (24%)	–
33 Erick M	5.6	69'	–	–	2	20 (13%)	1
2 Emanuel Brítez D	5.6	44'	–	–	2	26 (15%)	–

Cruzeiro

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Matheus Pereira M	8.2	90'	1	–	3	62 (59%)	2
99 Keny Arroyo M	8.1	90'	1	1	3	55 (46%)	2
19 Kaio Jorge F	7.7	90'	–	1	1	21 (19%)	1
81 Otávio Costa G	7.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (16%)	1
25 Lucas Villalba D	7.5	34'	1	–	2	19 (16%)	–
8 Gerson M	6.9	81'	–	–	–	69 (66%)	1
43 João Marcelo D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	57 (52%)	–
34 Jonathan Jesus D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	47 (43%)	6
27 Gabriel Rojas D	6.6	56'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	2
12 William Furtado D	6.5	44'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	–
15 Fabrício Bruno D	6.4	9'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
5 Zé Lucas M	6.4	56'	–	–	1	32 (27%)	1
7 Matheus Henrique M	6.3	34'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
20 Wesley M	6.3	46'	–	–	2	12 (12%)	–
23 Fagner D	6.2	46'	–	–	–	24 (18%)	–
38 Felipe Morais M	6.2	44'	–	–	2	13 (11%)	4

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Cruzeiro ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.5%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

52%

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Vitoria

LDWLL

Cruzeiro

WLWLL

Last 3 meetings Vitoria · 0W 1D 2L

Live insights

90' Goal 85% sure

Cruzeiro now leads 1-3 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Cruzeiro leads 1-2. Win probability: 86.1%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 13.9%.

67' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Cruzeiro win: 81.1%. BTTS: 100%.

47' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 42.5%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Vitoria leads. Win probability: 66.7%. Over 0.5 more goals: 73.4%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

30%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

42%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Cruzeiro goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	7	4	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	5	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Vitoria goals · most likely 1–1 (13.5%)

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Players in form

Vitoria

Rene 9 gls

Cruzeiro

Matheus Pereira 9 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

30%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Home Win

30%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

58% Away (No Draw) 42% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 30% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

22%

1.5

78%

48%

2.5

52%

70%

3.5

30%

86%

4.5

14%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.9%	8.0%	7.3%	3.7%	1.4%
1	6.3%	13.5%	9.1%	4.6%	1.8%
2	4.9%	7.5%	5.7%	2.9%	1.1%
3	2.1%	3.1%	2.4%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.6%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vitoria	Draw	Cruzeiro
Vitoria	18.1%	5.0%	2.8%
Draw	10.9%	17.3%	16.2%
Cruzeiro	1.6%	4.1%	24.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

33%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vitoria vs Cruzeiro

0 Vitoria Wins

1 Draws

2 Cruzeiro Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Apr 2026	Cruzeiro	3 - 0	Vitoria
01 Nov 2025	Cruzeiro	3 - 1	Vitoria
12 Jun 2025	Vitoria	0 - 0	Cruzeiro

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Vitoria — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Cruzeiro	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Mirassol	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	H Gremio	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	L	0 - 2
29 Aug	A Atletico-MG	L	2 - 1

Cruzeiro — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Vitoria	W	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Atletico Paranaense	W	3 - 1
02 Sep	A Atletico-MG	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	A Vasco DA Gama	L	3 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Cruzeiro

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Artur Jorge

81 Costa

27 Rojas

34 Jonathan

43 Marcelo

23 Fágner

5 Lucas

8 Gerson

20 Gassova

10 Pereira

99 Arroyo

19 Jorge

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
81	Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa	G
23	Fágner	D
43	João Marcelo	D
34	Jonathan	D
27	G. Rojas	D
8	Gerson	M
5	Zé Lucas	M
99	K. Arroyo	M
10	Matheus Pereira	M
20	Wesley Gassova	M
19	Kaio Jorge	F

Substitutes

12	William	D
94	Wanderson	F
6	M. Viña	D
25	L. Villalba	D
97	L. Rodríguez	F
7	Matheus Henrique	M
16	Lucas Silva	M
38	Felipe Morais	M
15	Fabrício Bruno	D
67	João Gabriel e Costa Cesco	F
9	Bruno Rodrigues	F
1	Cássio	G

Vitoria

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

1 Arcanjo

83 Jamerson

36 Cândido

25 Cacá

98 Mateusinho

95 Caíque

6 Martínez

12 Tarzia

10 Matheuzinho

33 Erick

91 Rene

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Lucas Arcanjo	G
98	Mateusinho	D
25	Cacá	D
36	Luan Cândido	D
83	Jamerson	D
6	E. Martínez	M
95	Caíque	M
33	Erick	M
10	Matheuzinho	M
12	D. Tarzia	M
91	Rene	F

Substitutes

2	E. Brítez	D
9	Alex Bruno	F
26	Edenilson	M
23	Fabrício	F
20	Lucas Silva	F
7	Marinho	F
8	T. Pochettino	M
16	Rúben Ismael	M
79	Renato Kayzer	F
71	Yuri Sena	G
88	Zé Vitor	M
3	Darlan Silva Dutra	D