Corinthians vs Fluminense Napoved

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

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Corinthians

Home

1 : 3

HT 0 - 1

Fluminense

Away

Maracanã, Rio de Janeiro

UI napoved Corinthians ali neodločeno

37%

31%

32%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Corinthians proti Fluminense: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Corinthians na 37%, za Fluminense na 32%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 31%. Zadnja posodobitev: 20 Sep 2026, 21:00.

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Gosti dosežejo gol 73%
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%

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Timeline

M. Depay Yellow Card

20' ▮

⚽ 0–1 24'

Hulk assist: Luciano Acosta

🖵 24'

Hulk Goal confirmed

Matheuzinho Yellow Card

35' ▮

▮ 44'

Samuel Xavier Yellow Card

Iago Machado ⇄ Gui Negão

45' ⇄

▮ 45+6'

Martinelli Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Gustavo Henrique

56' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 59'

Samuel Xavier ⇄ Júlio Fidelis

⇄ 59'

Luciano Acosta ⇄ Ganso

André Luiz Yellow Card

61' ▮

▮ 62'

Agustín Canobbio Yellow Card

▮ 64'

Júlio Fidelis Yellow Card

▮ 71'

Nonato Yellow Card

⚽ 1–2 76'

Hulk assist: Ganso

⇄ 76'

Agustín Canobbio ⇄ Riquelme Felipe

⇄ 76'

Nonato ⇄ Hércules

André Luiz ⇄ Jesse Lingard

80' ⇄

M. Depay ⇄ Pedro Raul

81' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Hulk ⇄ Rodrigo Castillo

Breno Bidon ⇄ Matheus Pereira

88' ⇄

⚽ 1–3 90+3'

Kevin Serna assist: Martinelli

FT 1–3

Corinthians

Match Stats

Fluminense

57% Ball Possession 43%

20 Total Shots 10

7 Shots on Goal 6

6 Shots off Goal 2

7 Blocked Shots 2

11 Shots insidebox 8

9 Shots outsidebox 2

11 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

16 Fouls 21

3 Yellow Cards 5

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

513 Total passes 417

453 Passes accurate 349

21 Free Kicks 14

Corinthians

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Gustavo Henrique D	7.4	90'	1	–	3	54 (47%)	–
10 M. Depay F	6.8	81'	–	–	2	28 (24%)	–
14 Raniele M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	67 (63%)	2
8 Rodrigo Garro M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	68 (57%)	1
21 Matheus Bidu D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	48 (42%)	1
7 Breno Bidon M	6.5	88'	–	–	1	47 (43%)	2
37 Kaio César M	6.5	90'	–	–	2	34 (29%)	–
49 André Luiz M	6.4	80'	–	–	1	36 (32%)	2
56 Gui Negão F	6.3	44'	–	–	2	7 (5%)	–
55 Iago Machado D	6.3	46'	–	–	–	37 (36%)	–
18 Pedro Raul F	6.1	9'	–	–	–	–	–
1 Hugo Souza G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
2 Matheuzinho D	6.0	90'	–	–	2	57 (50%)	1
23 Matheus Pereira M	5.9	2'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
77 Jesse Lingard M	5.8	10'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–

Fluminense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Hulk F	9.1	87'	2	–	3	14 (11%)	–
1 Fábio G	8.2	90'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	–
90 Kevin Serna M	7.9	90'	1	–	4	26 (20%)	2
32 Luciano Acosta M	7.7	59'	–	1	–	20 (17%)	1
8 Martinelli M	7.4	90'	–	1	–	46 (42%)	2
6 Renê D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	3
3 Thiago Silva D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	64 (56%)	–
29 Julián Millán D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	55 (48%)	1
28 Riquelme Felipe F	6.9	14'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	–
19 Rodrigo Castillo F	6.8	3'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
35 Hércules M	6.4	14'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	–
10 Ganso M	6.4	31'	–	1	–	22 (17%)	–
17 Agustín Canobbio M	6.3	76'	–	–	2	17 (11%)	1
16 Nonato M	6.2	76'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	1
46 Júlio Fidelis D	6.1	31'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	2
2 Samuel Xavier D	6.0	59'	–	–	–	26 (19%)	1

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Corinthians ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Corinthians

LLLDL

Fluminense

WLLWW

Last 3 meetings Corinthians · 1W 0D 2L

Live insights

90' Goal 85% sure

Fluminense now leads 1-3 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

84' time check 80% sure

Min 84: Fluminense leads 1-2. Win probability: 94.3%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 5.7%.

78' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-2! Fluminense win probability: 89.8%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 26.3%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 72.6%. Late goal chance: 29.9%.

57' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 52.7%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

37%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

32%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Fluminense goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	12	9	4	1
1	8	15	9	4	1
2	5	6	4	2	1
3	2	2	1	1
4		1
5

↑ Corinthians goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Corinthians

No scorer data.

Fluminense

John Kennedy 9 gls

Hulk 7 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

32%

Draw

31%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

37%

Away Win

32%

Draw

31%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

62% Away (No Draw) 38% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

43% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.6%	11.6%	8.8%	3.9%	1.3%
1	8.1%	14.7%	8.6%	3.8%	1.3%
2	4.8%	6.4%	4.2%	1.9%	0.6%
3	1.6%	2.1%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Corinthians	Draw	Fluminense
Corinthians	12.8%	3.3%	1.4%
Draw	12.2%	20.6%	14.9%
Fluminense	1.8%	5.1%	27.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Corinthians vs Fluminense

1 Corinthians Wins

0 Draws

2 Fluminense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 Apr 2026	Fluminense	3 - 1	Corinthians
13 Sep 2025	Fluminense	0 - 1	Corinthians
16 Apr 2025	Corinthians	0 - 2	Fluminense

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Corinthians — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Fluminense	L	1 - 3
17 Sep	H Estudiantes L.P.	L	0 - 1
13 Sep	A Flamengo	L	2 - 1
10 Sep	A Estudiantes L.P.	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	L	1 - 2

Fluminense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Corinthians	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	A Platense	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Atletico-MG	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	H Platense	W	2 - 0
06 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	W	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Fluminense

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Marcão

1 Fábio

6 Renê

29 Millán

3 Silva

2 Xavier

8 Martinelli

16 Nonato

90 Serna

32 Acosta

17 Canobbio

7 Hulk

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Fábio	G
2	Samuel Xavier	D
3	Thiago Silva	D
29	J. Millán	D
6	Renê	D
16	Nonato	M
8	Martinelli	M
17	A. Canobbio	M
32	L. Acosta	M
90	K. Serna	M
7	Hulk	F

Substitutes

13	Guilherme Arana	D
35	Hércules	M
21	Igor Rabello	D
44	Jemmes	D
46	Julio Fidelis	D
94	Otávio	M
10	PH Ganso	M
28	Riquelme	F
11	J. Savarino	F
98	Vitor Eudes	G
19	R. Castillo	F
22	J. Freytes	D

Corinthians

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Fernando Diniz

1 Souza

21 Bidu

13 Henrique

55 Machado

2 Matheuzinho

14 Raniele

49 Andre

7 Breno

8 Garro

37 César

10 Depay

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Hugo Souza	G
2	Matheuzinho	D
55	I. Machado	D
13	Gustavo Henrique	D
21	Matheus Bidu	D
49	Andre	M
14	Raniele	M
37	Kaio César	M
8	R. Garro	M
7	Breno	M
10	M. Depay	F

Substitutes

61	Dieguinho	M
4	João Pedro	D
51	Kauê Camargo	G
18	Pedro Raul	F
11	Vitinho	F
26	F. Angileri	D
77	J. Lingard	M
20	P. Milans	D
23	Matheus Pereira	M
35	Charles	M
29	Allan	M
56	Guilherme Inácio	F