Alverca vs Nacional Previsão

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 23

21 Feb 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Nacional

Away

Chamada de IA Nacional ou empate

26%

32%

42%

Vitória do Mandante Empate Vitória do Visitante

Palpite Alverca x Nacional: O Sportiko estima 26% de probabilidade de vitória para o Alverca, 42% para o Nacional e 32% de empate. Atualizado 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Alverca

WWLDL

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Alverca · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the Primeira Liga match between Alverca and Nacional, both teams will be keen to secure vital points. Alverca's recent form shows a mixed bag of results, with a tendency to struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per match over the last five outings. Conversely, Nacional has been more stable, with a solid midfield that controls possession effectively, averaging 55% in their last few matches. This clash will likely hinge on Alverca's ability to capitalize on home opportunities against Nacional's organized defense. Expect a tactical battle, with the midfield play being crucial to both teams' strategies.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	12	9	4	1
1	9	15	8	4	1
2	5	6	4	2	1
3	2	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Alverca goals · most likely 1–1 (14.8%)

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Players in form

Alverca

D. Camara 3 gls

Nacional

No scorer data.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

32%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

32%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

62% Away (No Draw) 38% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Away Win by 2+ 10% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

42% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	12.1%	8.8%	3.7%	1.2%
1	8.6%	14.8%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	4.9%	6.2%	4.0%	1.7%	0.5%
3	1.6%	2.0%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alverca	Draw	Nacional
Alverca	14.9%	4.2%	1.8%
Draw	10.9%	21.5%	16.4%
Nacional	1.3%	4.1%	25.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

39%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alverca vs Nacional

2 Alverca Wins

0 Draws

1 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 Sep 2026	Nacional	1 - 3	Alverca
18 Apr 2026	Nacional	1 - 0	Alverca
07 Dec 2025	Alverca	1 - 0	Nacional

Alverca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rio Ave	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	A Nacional	W	1 - 3
05 Sep	H SC Braga	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Santa Clara	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Sporting CP	L	3 - 1

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.