Lens vs Toulouse Prognoza

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 30

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Toulouse

Away

Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Lens

64%

20%

16%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Lens vs Toulouse: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Lens na 64%, Toulouse na 16%, a remisu na 20%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Toulouse made a blistering start at Bollaert-Delelis, with Cristian Cásseres Jr. and Seny Koumbassa both finding the net inside the opening 13 minutes to put the visitors firmly in control. The afternoon grew even more difficult for Toulouse shortly before the break, however, when Yann Gboho's card was upgraded to a red following a VAR review, leaving them to play the entire second half with ten men.

Lens capitalised on the numerical advantage after the interval, with Saud Abdulhamid pulling one back on 61 minutes before Adrien Thomasson levelled matters six minutes later. The hosts had turned the tie on its head despite being thoroughly outplayed on paper — Toulouse finished with 78% possession, 41 total shots and an expected goals figure of 3.76 compared to Lens's 0.41. Ismaelo Ganiou completed the remarkable comeback with a 90th-minute winner to seal a 3–2 victory.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lens win as the most likely outcome at 64%, a call that proved correct despite the dramatic and unlikely manner in which it was ultimately delivered.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 6'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

⚽ 0–2 13'

Seny Koumbassa assist: Santiago Hidalgo

🖵 16'

Yann Gboho Card upgrade

▮ 17'

Yann Gboho Red Card

Arthur Masuaku Yellow Card

45' ▮

HT 0–2

⇄ 46'

Santiago Hidalgo ⇄ Pape Diop

Wesley Saïd ⇄ Allan Saint-Maximin

55' ⇄

Rayan Fofana ⇄ Odsonne Édouard

55' ⇄

Saud Abdulhamid assist: Allan Saint-Maximin

61' ⚽ 1–2

⇄ 64'

Emersonn ⇄ Jacen Russell-Rowe

⇄ 64'

Aron Dønnum ⇄ Dayann Methalie

Adrien Thomasson

67' ⚽ 2–2

Florian Sotoca ⇄ Florian Thauvin

72' ⇄

⇄ 72'

Charlie Cresswell ⇄ Djibril Sidibé

⇄ 76'

Alexis Vossah ⇄ Mario Sauer

Arthur Masuaku ⇄ Samson Baidoo

85' ⇄

Adrien Thomasson ⇄ Andrija Bulatovic

85' ⇄

▮ 88'

Mario Sauer Yellow Card

Ismaelo Ganiou assist: Andrija Bulatovic

90' ⚽ 3–2

FT 3–2

Lens

Match Stats

Toulouse

78% Ball Possession 22%

3.76 Expected Goals (xG) 0.41

41 Total Shots 5

13 Shots on Goal 2

18 Shots off Goal 1

10 Blocked Shots 2

27 Shots insidebox 3

14 Shots outsidebox 2

14 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 0

9 Fouls 15

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

0 Goalkeeper Saves 10

596 Total passes 176

531 Passes accurate 111

89% Passes % 63%

0.43 goals_prevented 0.43

Lens

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Saud Abdulhamid M	8.9	90'	1	–	1	58 (50%)	1
25 Ismaelo Ganiou D	8.5	90'	1	–	3	82 (71%)	3
14 Matthieu Udol M	8.5	90'	–	–	5	51 (43%)	2
20 Malang Sarr D	8.2	90'	–	–	3	85 (82%)	3
9 Allan Saint-Maximin F	7.7	35'	–	1	2	18 (17%)	–
8 Mamadou Sangare M	7.6	90'	–	–	2	72 (65%)	4
28 Adrien Thomasson M	7.3	85'	1	–	5	32 (27%)	3
10 Florian Thauvin F	7.2	18'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
5 Andrija Bulatovic M	6.9	10'	–	1	–	2 (2%)	–
27 Arthur Masuaku D	6.6	85'	–	–	1	85 (80%)	2
6 Samson Baidoo D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
11 Odsonne Édouard F	6.5	35'	–	–	2	2 (1%)	–
22 Wesley Saïd F	6.3	55'	–	–	5	28 (22%)	2
38 Rayan Fofana F	6.3	55'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	1
7 Florian Sotoca F	6.2	72'	–	–	1	39 (31%)	–
40 Robin Risser G	5.5	90'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–

Toulouse

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Guillaume Restes G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (16%)	–
23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. M	7.9	90'	1	–	1	17 (13%)	5
35 Seny Koumbassa D	7.3	90'	1	–	1	16 (9%)	2
18 Pape Diop M	6.9	45'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	1
12 Warren Kamanzi M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	2
2 Rasmus Nicolaisen D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	14 (9%)	–
15 Aron Dønnum M	6.7	64'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	2
4 Charlie Cresswell D	6.7	72'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
11 Santiago Hidalgo F	6.7	45'	–	1	–	8 (6%)	1
45 Alexis Vossah M	6.5	76'	–	–	–	19 (14%)	–
19 Djibril Sidibé D	6.3	18'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
13 Jacen Russell-Rowe F	6.3	26'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	–
77 Mario Sauer M	6.2	14'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
24 Dayann Methalie D	5.9	26'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	1
20 Emersonn F	5.9	64'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	–
10 Yann Gboho F	3.0	17'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	1

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Confidence Medium (59%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Trudna wygrana lub remis Lens

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Lens

LDWLL

Toulouse

WDLDL

Last 3 meetings Lens · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on April 19, 2026, Lens will host Toulouse at Stade Bollaert-Delelis. Lens has shown strong form at home, having won 60% of their matches in front of their fans this season, showcasing a potent attack with an average of 2 goals per game. Toulouse, however, has struggled defensively on the road, conceding an average of 1.8 goals away from home. The matchup could hinge on Lens's ability to exploit Toulouse's defensive frailties, while Toulouse will need to find a way to counteract Lens's aggressive pressing. Expect a competitive encounter with Lens favored due to their home advantage and recent form.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toulouse goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	5	4	2	1
1	10	10	4	1
2	11	10	5	1
3	8	7	3	1
4	4	4	2	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Lens goals · most likely 2–0 (11.0%)

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Players in form

Lens

F. Thauvin 3 gls

F. Ivanović 2 gls

Toulouse

C. Tengstedt 3 gls

T. Jørgensen 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lens vs Toulouse

1 Lens Wins

1 Draws

1 Toulouse Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 Jan 2026	Toulouse	0 - 3	Lens
10 May 2025	Toulouse	1 - 1	Lens
05 Jan 2025	Lens	0 - 1	Toulouse

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Lens — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Monaco	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	A Le Mans	D	2 - 2
10 Sep	A Slavia Praha	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	H Lorient	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Strasbourg	L	2 - 1

Toulouse — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Le Havre	W	3 - 2
12 Sep	A Lorient	D	2 - 2
03 Sep	H Lille	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Stade Brestois 29	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	H Lyon	L	0 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2