Espanyol vs Elche Prognoza

La Liga · Regular Season - 7

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Elche

Away

Stage Front Stadium, Cornella de Llobregat

Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Espanyol

53%

26%

21%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Espanyol vs Elche: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Espanyol na 53%, Elche na 21%, a remisu na 26%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 18 Sep 2026, 21:02.

Typy Premium

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Espanyol suffered a damaging home defeat as Elche claimed a 3–1 victory at RCDE Stadium in matchday seven of La Liga. The contest was effectively shaped inside the opening ten minutes when Federico Redondo received a red card following a VAR review that upgraded his initial punishment, leaving the hosts with ten men for the vast majority of the match. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Espanyol win as the most likely outcome at 53%, a call that proved well wide of the mark.

Elche made their numerical advantage count before the break, with Fernando Niño scoring twice in quick succession — first in the 26th minute and again three minutes later — to send Elche into half-time with a commanding two-goal lead. Despite dominating possession at 66% and attempting 22 shots in total, Espanyol managed just four on target and could not find a way through consistently.

The second half brought little relief for the hosts. Víctor Chust turned the ball into his own net on 72 minutes to effectively end the contest, before Germán Valera added a fourth — Espanyol's only goal coming as a consolation — rounding off a difficult afternoon for the ten-man home side.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 4'

Federico Redondo Card upgrade confirmed

▮ 6'

Federico Redondo Red Card

▮ 22'

Fernando Niño Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 26'

Fernando Niño assist: Roy Revivo

⚽ 0–2 29'

Fernando Niño assist: Roy Revivo

⇄ 37'

Buba Sangare ⇄ Rubén Sánchez

Roger Hinojo ⇄ Quilindschy Hartman

45' ⇄

Urko González ⇄ Marcos Fernández

45' ⇄

Edu Expósito Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

HT 0–2

⇄ 60'

Gonzalo Villar ⇄ Pedro Bigas

⇄ 61'

Fernando Niño ⇄ Abiel Osorio

Álex Calatrava ⇄ Pere Milla

61' ⇄

Bryan Zaragoza ⇄ Tyrhys Dolan

67' ⇄

Unai Núñez ⇄ Clemens Riedel

67' ⇄

Víctor Chust Own Goal

72' ⚽ 1–2

⇄ 77'

Thomas Lemar ⇄ Tete Morente

⇄ 77'

Roy Revivo ⇄ Matia Barzić

⚽ 1–3 78'

Germán Valera assist: Tete Morente

Clemens Riedel Yellow Card

82' ▮

▮ 90+1'

Lucas Cepeda Yellow Card

FT 1–3

Espanyol

Match Stats

Elche

66% Ball Possession 34%

22 Total Shots 9

4 Shots on Goal 6

14 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 1

12 Shots insidebox 6

10 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 3

9 Offsides 2

14 Fouls 9

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

508 Total passes 282

447 Passes accurate 192

8 Free Kicks 13

Espanyol

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Edu Expósito M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	81 (72%)	4
14 Unai Núñez D	6.9	67'	–	–	1	64 (60%)	3
18 Marcos Fernández F	6.8	45'	–	–	3	9 (8%)	–
24 Tyrhys Dolan F	6.7	23'	–	–	2	13 (9%)	1
6 Leandro Cabrera D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	75 (68%)	2
32 José Ángel López D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	31 (30%)	–
4 Urko González M	6.4	45'	–	–	–	21 (21%)	–
3 Quilindschy Hartman D	6.1	45'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	1
15 Bryan Zaragoza M	6.0	67'	–	–	2	29 (21%)	1
11 Pere Milla M	6.0	29'	–	–	2	17 (14%)	–
5 Clemens Riedel D	5.9	23'	–	–	–	32 (30%)	–
28 Javier Hernández M	5.9	90'	–	–	3	31 (26%)	–
9 Roberto Fernández F	5.8	90'	–	–	2	4 (4%)	–
22 Álex Calatrava M	5.8	61'	–	–	3	23 (15%)	3
21 Roger Hinojo D	5.6	45'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	1
13 Marko Dmitrović G	5.4	90'	–	–	–	22 (22%)	–

Elche

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Fernando Niño F	8.6	61'	2	–	2	17 (12%)	–
11 Germán Valera F	8.2	90'	1	–	1	28 (24%)	3
3 Roy Revivo D	8.0	77'	–	2	–	17 (14%)	1
1 Matías Dituro G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	55 (14%)	–
12 Gonzalo Villar M	6.9	60'	–	–	–	23 (21%)	1
20 Tete Morente F	6.8	13'	–	1	–	9 (6%)	–
22 Rubén Sánchez D	6.5	53'	–	–	–	13 (9%)	1
24 Abiel Osorio F	6.5	29'	–	–	2	10 (8%)	–
21 Lucas Cepeda F	6.4	90'	–	–	2	20 (15%)	3
26 Matia Barzić D	6.4	13'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
6 Pedro Bigas D	6.3	30'	–	–	–	1	–
2 Buba Sangare D	6.3	37'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	1
18 Thomas Lemar M	6.2	77'	–	–	–	28 (23%)	5
47 Javi Morcillo M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	22 (19%)	1
23 Víctor Chust D	5.8	90'	–	–	1	27 (19%)	1
5 Federico Redondo D	5.2	6'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Trudna wygrana lub remis Espanyol

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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Espanyol

LLWDL

Elche

WLDLL

Last 3 meetings Espanyol · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Espanyol hosts Elche in a La Liga clash on September 20, 2026. Historically, Espanyol has a stronger home record, often capitalizing on their offensive efficiency, averaging 1.5 goals per match in recent seasons. Elche, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match against mid-table teams. The key matchup will likely be Espanyol's attacking line against Elche's back four, which needs to tighten up to stand a chance. Overall, Espanyol will look to leverage their home form against an Elche side seeking to stabilize their defense.

Live insights

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Elche leads 1-3. Win probability: 99.2%. Comeback chance: 0.8%.

79' Goal 85% sure

Elche now leads 1-3 with 98.1% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 26.9%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Elche leads 1-2. Win probability: 78.5%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 21.5%.

74' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Elche win: 76.2%. BTTS: 100%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-2. Elche leads. Win probability: 83.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.3%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

53%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

21%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Elche goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7	5	3	1
1	9	13	6	2	1
2	9	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Espanyol goals · most likely 1–1 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Espanyol

Roberto Fernández 6 gls

Elche

Fer Niño 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

26%

Away Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

26%

Away Win

21%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

Premium

Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

Premium

Winner

71% Home (No Draw) 29% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

53% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 21% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS Yes 44% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

Premium

4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

Premium

BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	4.8%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%
1	9.0%	12.5%	5.9%	2.1%	0.6%
2	9.4%	9.9%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
3	5.6%	5.9%	3.1%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.5%	2.7%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

Premium

1st Half Draw

Premium

1st Half Away Win

Premium

1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

Premium

1st Half Home or Away

Premium

1st Half Draw or Away

Premium

1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

Premium

2nd Half Home Win

Premium

2nd Half Away Win

Premium

2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

Premium

2nd Half Draw or Away

Premium

2nd Half Home or Away

Premium

2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Espanyol	Draw	Elche
Espanyol	39.4%	5.9%	2.3%
Draw	13.3%	15.6%	9.7%
Elche	1.4%	2.7%	9.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

Premium

Home +1 Win

Premium

Away +2 Win

Premium

Away +1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Win

Premium

Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

Premium

Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Espanyol vs Elche

2 Espanyol Wins

1 Draws

0 Elche Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Mar 2026	Elche	2 - 2	Espanyol
25 Oct 2025	Espanyol	1 - 0	Elche
19 Feb 2023	Elche	0 - 1	Espanyol

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Espanyol — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Elche	L	1 - 3
15 Sep	A Rayo Vallecano	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Osasuna	W	0 - 2
06 Sep	H Sevilla	D	1 - 1
29 Aug	A Real Sociedad	L	2 - 1

Elche — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Espanyol	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	H Real Madrid	L	2 - 3
12 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	1 - 1
07 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
28 Aug	A Racing Santander	L	3 - 2

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Espanyol

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Manolo González

13 Dmitrović

21 Hinojo

6 Cabrera

14 Núñez

32 Lopez

4 González

8 Expósito

15 Zaragoza

28 Hernandez

22 Calatrava

9 Fernández

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	M. Dmitrović	G
32	J. A. Lopez	D
14	Unai Núñez	D
6	L. Cabrera	D
21	Roger Hinojo	D
8	Edu Expósito	M
4	Urko González	M
22	Álex Calatrava	M
28	Javier Hernandez	M
15	Bryan Zaragoza	M
9	Roberto Fernández	F

Substitutes

11	Pere Milla	M
5	C. Riedel	D
3	Q. Hartman	D
20	Gabriel Moscardo	M
1	Ángel Fortuño	G
18	Marcos Fernández	F
16	V. Drkušić	D
24	T. Dolan	F
26	Rafel Bauzà	M
31	Llorenç Serred	G
29	Víctor Mullerat Tomas	F
10	Pol Lozano	M

Elche

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: M. Anselmi

1 Dituro

3 Revivo

23 Chust

5 Redondo

2 Sangaré

18 Lemar

47 Morcillo

12 Villar

11 Valera

14 Niño

21 Cepeda

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. Dituro	G
2	Buba Sangaré	D
5	F. Redondo	D
23	Víctor Chust	D
3	R. Revivo	D
12	Gonzalo Villar	M
47	J. Morcillo	M
18	T. Lemar	M
21	L. Cepeda	F
14	Fer Niño	F
11	Germán Valera	F

Substitutes

26	Matia Barzic Gutiérrez	D
20	Tete Morente	F
6	Bigas	D
10	F. Buonanotte	M
19	G. Diangana	F
13	Alejandro Iturbe	G
17	Josan	M
16	Martim Neto	M
24	A. Osorio	F
9	E. Ponce	F
22	Rubén Sánchez	D
8	Marc Aguado	M