Mexico vs Ecuador Prognoza

World Cup · Round of 32

Post on X

Ecuador

Away

Estadio Azteca, D.F.

Typowanie AI Trudna wygrana lub remis Mexico

54%

32%

15%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Mexico vs Ecuador: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Mexico na 54%, Ecuador na 15%, a remisu na 32%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Mexico secured a comfortable 2–0 victory over Ecuador in this World Cup Round of 32 clash, with both goals arriving in a dominant first-half spell. Julián Quiñones broke the deadlock in the 22nd minute, and Raúl Jiménez doubled the advantage nine minutes later to send Mexico into the break firmly in control. Ecuador's Alan Franco picked up a yellow card on the stroke of half-time and was immediately substituted at the interval, disrupting the Ecuadorian shape further.

Despite enjoying 57% possession throughout the match and earning eight corner kicks to Mexico's three, Ecuador struggled to convert their territorial advantage into genuine chances, managing just one shot on target compared to Mexico's three. The expected goals figures — 1.00 for Mexico against 0.73 for Ecuador — reflected a match where the scoreline was largely justified. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Mexico win as the most likely outcome at 54%, a call that proved correct.

The closing stages turned fractious for Ecuador, with Piero Hincapié receiving a red card in stoppage time, compounded by late yellow cards for Kendry Páez and Moisés Caicedo, leaving the South Americans to reflect on a difficult evening.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Julián Quiñones assist: Roberto Alvarado

22' ⚽ 1–0

Raúl Jiménez assist: Julián Quiñones

31' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 45+1'

Alan Franco Yellow Card

HT 2–0

⇄ 46'

Alan Franco ⇄ Yaimar Medina

⇄ 46'

Joel Ordóñez ⇄ Ángelo Preciado

Gilberto Mora ⇄ Brian Gutiérrez

58' ⇄

⇄ 59'

Enner Valencia ⇄ Kevin Rodriguez

Luis Romo ⇄ Obed Vargas

73' ⇄

Raúl Jiménez ⇄ Santiago Giménez

74' ⇄

⇄ 79'

John Yeboah ⇄ Jordy Caicedo

⇄ 79'

Nilson Angulo ⇄ Kendry Páez

Julián Quiñones ⇄ Orbelín Pineda

80' ⇄

Roberto Alvarado ⇄ Israel Reyes

80' ⇄

▮ 90+3'

Kendry Páez Yellow Card

▮ 90+5'

Piero Hincapié Red Card

▮ 90+9'

Moisés Caicedo Yellow Card

FT 2–0

Mexico

Match Stats

Ecuador

43% Ball Possession 57%

1.00 Expected Goals (xG) 0.73

15 Total Shots 7

3 Shots on Goal 1

9 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 1

10 Shots insidebox 5

5 Shots outsidebox 2

3 Corner Kicks 8

0 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 13

0 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 1

314 Total passes 404

246 Passes accurate 339

78% Passes % 84%

-0.57 goals_prevented -0.57

Mexico

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Julián Quiñones F	8.3	80'	1	1	1	23 (17%)	1
9 Raúl Jiménez F	7.7	74'	1	–	4	19 (12%)	–
1 Raúl Rangel G	7.5	98'	–	–	–	34 (23%)	–
5 Johan Vásquez D	7.5	98'	–	–	1	43 (37%)	–
3 César Montes D	7.3	98'	–	–	1	28 (21%)	1
19 Gilberto Mora M	7.3	58'	–	–	2	25 (22%)	1
25 Roberto Alvarado F	7.2	80'	–	1	1	25 (20%)	–
11 Santiago Giménez F	7.2	24'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
6 Erik Lira M	7.0	98'	–	–	–	34 (32%)	1
2 Jorge Sánchez D	6.9	98'	–	–	–	20 (15%)	3
15 Israel Reyes D	6.6	18'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
7 Luis Romo M	6.6	73'	–	–	1	23 (19%)	1
23 Jesús Gallardo D	6.3	98'	–	–	–	20 (13%)	–
26 Brian Gutiérrez M	6.3	40'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	1
18 Obed Vargas M	6.3	25'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
17 Orbelín Pineda M	6.2	18'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–

Ecuador

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Moisés Caicedo M	7.5	98'	–	–	1	63 (57%)	1
9 John Yeboah M	7.3	79'	–	–	2	15 (12%)	2
20 Nilson Angulo M	6.7	79'	–	–	–	33 (25%)	1
10 Kendry Páez M	6.7	19'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	–
6 Willian Pacho D	6.6	98'	–	–	–	44 (41%)	1
15 Pedro Vite M	6.6	98'	–	–	1	68 (62%)	1
1 Hernán Galíndez G	6.5	98'	–	–	–	23 (11%)	–
26 Yaimar Medina D	6.5	53'	–	–	1	16 (15%)	–
3 Piero Hincapié D	6.3	95'	–	–	–	57 (52%)	3
19 Gonzalo Plata F	6.3	98'	–	–	–	24 (17%)	1
16 Jordy Caicedo F	6.3	19'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
17 Ángelo Preciado D	6.2	53'	–	–	–	16 (9%)	1
11 Kevin Rodriguez F	6.2	39'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
13 Enner Valencia F	6.0	59'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
21 Alan Franco D	5.9	45'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
4 Joel Ordóñez D	5.3	45'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Trudna wygrana lub remis Mexico

Most likely score

1:0 · 18.2%

Both teams to score

34%

Over 2.5 goals

30%

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Mexico

LWWWW

Ecuador

LWDLW

Last 1 meetings Mexico · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this World Cup matchup, Mexico faces Ecuador at a neutral venue, setting the stage for a competitive clash. Mexico has shown strong attacking capabilities, boasting an average of 2.1 goals per game in their qualifying rounds, while Ecuador has been solid defensively, conceding just 1.0 goal per game. Key players such as Mexico's Raúl Jiménez and Ecuador's Enner Valencia will be pivotal in their teams' offensive strategies. Both teams will aim to control midfield and create scoring opportunities, making this an intriguing tactical battle. Expect a closely contested match as each side seeks to secure valuable points in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

54%

45%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

15%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ecuador goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	16	7	2
1	18	13	3	1
2	13	8	2
3	6	3	1
4	2	1
5	1

↑ Mexico goals · most likely 1–0 (18.2%)

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Players in form

Mexico

J. Quiñones 4 gls

Ecuador

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

32%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

32%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

79% Home (No Draw) 21% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Home Scores More 32% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

41%

1.5

59%

70%

2.5

30%

87%

3.5

13%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS No 34% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

25%

29%

17%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	16.2%	7.0%	2.5%	0.5%	0.1%
1	18.2%	12.9%	3.3%	0.6%	0.1%
2	13.2%	7.7%	2.2%	0.4%	0.1%
3	5.9%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
4	2.0%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

36%

35%

21%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mexico	Draw	Ecuador
Mexico	32.7%	3.2%	0.6%
Draw	20.9%	23.2%	6.9%
Ecuador	1.5%	3.2%	8.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

56%

32%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

77%

0.5

23%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mexico vs Ecuador

0 Mexico Wins

1 Draws

0 Ecuador Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Jun 2024	Mexico	0 - 0	Ecuador

Mexico — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H England	L	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Ecuador	W	2 - 0
25 Jun	A Czechia	W	0 - 3
19 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
11 Jun	H South Africa	W	2 - 0

Ecuador — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Jul	A Mexico	L	2 - 0
25 Jun	H Germany	W	2 - 1
21 Jun	H Curaçao	D	0 - 0
14 Jun	A Ivory Coast	L	1 - 0
31 May	H Saudi Arabia	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Mexico

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Javier Aguirre

1 Rangel

23 Gallardo

5 Vásquez

3 Montes

2 Sánchez

7 Romo

6 Lira

19 Mora

16 Quiñones

9 Jiménez

25 Alvarado

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Raúl Rangel	G
2	Jorge Sánchez	D
3	César Montes	D
5	Johan Vásquez	D
23	Jesús Gallardo	D
19	Gilberto Mora	M
6	Erik Lira	M
7	Luis Romo	M
25	Roberto Alvarado	F
9	Raúl Jiménez	F
16	Julián Quiñones	F

Substitutes

12	Carlos Acevedo	G
13	Guillermo Ochoa	G
15	Israel Reyes	D
20	Mateo Chávez	D
4	Edson Álvarez	M
24	Luis Chávez	M
8	Álvaro Fidalgo	M
17	Orbelín Pineda	M
18	Obed Vargas	M
26	Brian Gutiérrez	M
21	César Huerta	M
10	Alexis Vega	F
14	Armando González	F
22	Guillermo Martínez	F
11	Santiago Giménez	F

Ecuador

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Sebastian Beccacece

1 Galíndez

3 Hincapié

6 Pacho

4 Ordóñez

21 Franco

20 Angulo

15 Vite

23 Caicedo

9 Yeboah

13 Valencia

19 Plata

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Hernán Galíndez	G
21	Alan Franco	D
4	Joel Ordóñez	D
6	Willian Pacho	D
3	Piero Hincapié	D
9	John Yeboah	M
23	Moisés Caicedo	M
15	Pedro Vite	M
20	Nilson Angulo	M
19	Gonzalo Plata	F
13	Enner Valencia	F

Substitutes

12	Moisés Ramírez	G
22	Gonzalo Valle	G
25	Jackson Porozo	D
2	Félix Torres	D
26	Yaimar Medina	D
5	Jordy Alcivar	M
10	Kendry Páez	M
18	Denil Castillo	M
17	Ángelo Preciado	D
7	Pervis Estupiñán	D
8	Anthony Valencia	F
14	Alan Minda	F
16	Jordy Caicedo	F
11	Kevin Rodriguez	F
24	Jeremy Arevalo	F