Canada vs Qatar Prognoza

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

Post on X

Qatar

Away

BC Place, Vancouver, British Columbia

Typowanie AI Canada lub remis

41%

31%

27%

Wygrana gospodarzy Remis Wygrana gości

Prognoza Canada vs Qatar: Sportiko szacuje szansę wygranej Canada na 41%, Qatar na 27%, a remisu na 31%. Ostatnia aktualizacja: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Gospodarz strzeli gola 73%
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Canada produced a dominant display to thrash Qatar 6–0 in their World Cup group stage encounter, with the result never in doubt after a commanding first half. Cyle Larin opened the scoring in the 16th minute before Jonathan David doubled the advantage on 29 minutes. Qatar's task became near-impossible when Homam Al-Amin was dismissed on 33 minutes, and David added a third deep into first-half stoppage time to put Canada firmly in control at the break.

The second half followed a similar pattern, with Qatar further reduced to nine men after Assim Madibo received a red card on 53 minutes. Nathan-Dylan Saliba extended the lead on 64 minutes, before an own goal from Mohamed Naceur Almanai made it five on 75 minutes. Jonathan David completed his hat-trick in the 90th minute to round off a comprehensive victory. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Canada win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that proved correct.

The underlying numbers underlined Canada's total control, as they registered 30 shots to Qatar's two and dominated expected goals with a figure of 4.11 against just 0.18 for the hosts.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Derek Cornelius Yellow Card

9' ▮

Cyle Larin

16' ⚽ 1–0

Jonathan David

29' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 33'

Homam Al-Amin Red Card

⇄ 40'

Yusuf Abdurisag ⇄ Sultan Al-Brake

Jonathan David

45+3' ⚽ 3–0

HT 3–0

⇄ 46'

Edmilson Junior ⇄ Ahmed Fathi

⇄ 46'

Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam ⇄ Mohamed Naceur Almanai

Derek Cornelius ⇄ Moise Bombito

46' ⇄

▮ 53'

Assim Madibo Red Card

Ismael Koné ⇄ Nathan-Dylan Saliba

57' ⇄

⇄ 59'

Akram Afif ⇄ A. Al Hussain

▮ 62'

Ahmed Fathi Yellow Card

Nathan-Dylan Saliba

64' ⚽ 4–0

Luc De Fougerolles ⇄ Jacob Shaffelburg

71' ⇄

Ali Ahmed ⇄ Tani Oluwaseyi

71' ⇄

Mohamed Naceur Almanai Own Goal

75' ⚽ 5–0

Tajon Buchanan ⇄ Niko Sigur

83' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Ahmed Fathi ⇄ Lucas Mendes

Jonathan David assist: Nathan-Dylan Saliba

90+2' ⚽ 6–0

FT 6–0

Canada

Match Stats

Qatar

79% Ball Possession 21%

4.11 Expected Goals (xG) 0.18

30 Total Shots 2

10 Shots on Goal 0

6 Shots off Goal 1

14 Blocked Shots 1

19 Shots insidebox 1

11 Shots outsidebox 1

18 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 10

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 2

0 Goalkeeper Saves 4

552 Total passes 162

500 Passes accurate 103

91% Passes % 64%

-1.42 goals_prevented -1.42

Canada

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Jonathan David F	9.0	95'	3	–	5	21 (16%)	–
22 Richie Laryea D	8.3	95'	–	–	–	59 (52%)	–
7 Stephen Eustaquio M	8.2	95'	–	–	–	90 (83%)	3
25 Nathan-Dylan Saliba M	8.2	38'	1	1	1	28 (26%)	1
17 Tajon Buchanan M	7.9	83'	–	–	2	34 (30%)	2
4 Luc De Fougerolles D	7.3	71'	–	–	–	54 (49%)	–
8 Ismael Koné M	7.3	57'	–	–	–	50 (45%)	1
2 Alistair Johnston D	7.2	95'	–	–	1	55 (50%)	–
20 Ali Ahmed M	7.2	71'	–	–	1	24 (21%)	2
15 Moise Bombito D	7.0	50'	–	–	–	34 (33%)	–
9 Cyle Larin F	7.0	95'	1	–	2	13 (10%)	–
23 Niko Sigur M	6.7	12'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–
14 Jacob Shaffelburg F	6.7	24'	–	–	3	17 (16%)	–
12 Tani Oluwaseyi F	6.5	24'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
16 Maxime Crépeau G	6.3	95'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
13 Derek Cornelius D	6.3	45'	–	–	1	31 (29%)	–

Qatar

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Akram Afif F	7.3	59'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	–
16 Boualem Khoukhi D	6.6	95'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	2
4 Issa Laye M	6.6	95'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	1
5 Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	2
8 Edmilson Junior F	6.3	45'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	1
15 Yusuf Abdurisag F	6.3	40'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	1
20 Ahmed Fathi M	6.3	42'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
1 Mahmud Abunad G	6.2	95'	–	–	–	29 (11%)	–
2 Pedro Miguel D	6.2	95'	–	–	–	17 (11%)	1
3 Lucas Mendes D	6.2	8'	–	–	–	–	–
25 Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain D	6.0	36'	–	–	–	–	2
18 Sultan Al-Brake D	5.9	55'	–	–	–	6 (2%)	–
23 Assim Madibo M	5.7	53'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
26 Mohamed Naceur Almanai M	5.5	50'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
13 Ayoub Al Oui D	5.3	95'	–	–	–	10 (3%)	1
14 Homam Al-Amin D	4.3	33'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Nasza analiza

Canada lub remis

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Canada

LWLWD

Qatar

LLDWW

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 18, 2026, Canada will face Qatar. Canada has shown improvement in their attacking play, averaging 1.5 goals per match in recent qualifiers, while their defense has tightened, conceding just 0.8 goals per match. Qatar, on the other hand, has struggled in international competitions, with a poor goal differential and a lack of consistent scoring options.

Historically, Canada has a stronger FIFA ranking, which could provide them an edge in this clash. Expect Canada to leverage their speed on the flanks and pressing style against a Qatar side that may struggle to maintain possession under pressure. Overall, Canada enters the match as the favorites.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

27%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Qatar goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	8	5	2
1	11	15	7	2	1
2	8	9	4	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Canada goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

27%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

Premium

Draw or Away

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Winner

60% Home (No Draw) 40% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 27% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	8.2%	5.1%	1.7%	0.5%
1	10.9%	14.7%	6.7%	2.3%	0.6%
2	8.3%	8.6%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
3	3.7%	3.8%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.2%	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Canada	Draw	Qatar
Canada	25.1%	4.4%	1.5%
Draw	15.7%	20.4%	11.3%
Qatar	1.9%	4.2%	15.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Canada vs Qatar

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Canada — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H Morocco	L	0 - 3
28 Jun	A South Africa	W	0 - 1
24 Jun	A Switzerland	L	2 - 1
18 Jun	H Qatar	W	6 - 0
12 Jun	H Bosnia & Herzegovina	D	1 - 1

Qatar — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Jun	A Bosnia & Herzegovina	L	3 - 1
18 Jun	A Canada	L	6 - 0
13 Jun	H Switzerland	D	1 - 1
10 Feb	A Jordan	W	1 - 3
07 Feb	A Iran	W	2 - 3

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Qatar

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Julen Lopetegui

1 Abunada

14 Al-Amin

16 Khoukhi

2 Miguel

13 Oui

4 Laye

23 Madibo

5 Abdulsallam

11 Afif

15 Abdurisag

8 Junior

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Mahmud Abunada	G
13	Ayoub Al Oui	D
2	Pedro Miguel	D
16	Boualem Khoukhi	D
14	Homam Al-Amin	D
5	Jassem Gaber Abdulsallam	M
23	Assim Madibo	M
4	Issa Laye	M
8	Edmilson Junior	F
15	Yusuf Abdurisag	F
11	Akram Afif	F

Substitutes

18	Sultan Al-Brake	D
20	Ahmed Fathi	M
26	Mohamed Naceur Almanai	M
25	Al-Hashmi Al-Hussain	D
21	Salah Zakaria	G
22	Meshaal Barsham	G
3	Lucas Mendes	D
6	Abdelaziz Hatem	M
12	Karim Boudiaf	M
17	Ahmed Al-Ganehi	F
19	Almoez Ali	F
7	Ahmed Alaaeldin	F
9	Mohammed Muntari	F
10	Hassan Al Haydos	F
24	Tahsin Mohammed Jamshid	F

Canada

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Jesse Marsch

16 Crépeau

22 Laryea

13 Cornelius

4 Fougerolles

2 Johnston

20 Ahmed

7 Eustaquio

8 Koné

17 Buchanan

9 Larin

10 David

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	Maxime Crépeau	G
2	Alistair Johnston	D
4	Luc De Fougerolles	D
13	Derek Cornelius	D
22	Richie Laryea	D
17	Tajon Buchanan	M
8	Ismael Koné	M
7	Stephen Eustaquio	M
20	Ali Ahmed	M
10	Jonathan David	F
9	Cyle Larin	F

Substitutes

15	Moise Bombito	D
25	Nathan-Dylan Saliba	M
1	Dayne St. Clair	G
18	Owen Goodman	G
5	Joel Waterman	D
19	Alphonso Davies	D
23	Niko Sigur	M
6	Mathieu Choinière	M
11	Liam Millar	F
14	Jacob Shaffelburg	F
21	Jonathan Osorio	M
12	Tani Oluwaseyi	F
24	Promise David	F
26	Jayden Nelson	F