Estrela vs Nacional Previsione

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 21

07 Feb 2027, 16:00

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Nacional

Away

Previsione AI Estrela vince o pareggia

75%

21%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Estrela vs Nacional: Sportiko assegna a Estrela una probabilità di vittoria del 75%, a Nacional del 4% e al pareggio del 21%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 21%

Both teams to score

23%

Over 2.5 goals

36%

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Estrela

LDWDW

Nacional

LLLLL

Last 3 meetings Estrela · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Estrela faces Nacional in a key Primeira Liga matchup. Estrela has shown inconsistency this season, currently sitting mid-table with a mixed record of home performances. In contrast, Nacional has been more resilient, particularly in away fixtures, showcasing a stronger defensive setup. The outcome may hinge on Estrela's ability to convert chances, as their goal-scoring efficiency has been below par. Overall, both teams will be looking to secure crucial points, making this a tightly contested encounter.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

75%

45%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Nacional goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	7	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	6	2
5	2	1

↑ Estrela goals · most likely 1–0 (21.0%)

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Players in form

Estrela

A. Marcus 4 gls

L. Antonetti 4 gls

I. Stoica 4 gls

Nacional

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

75%

Draw

21%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

75%

Draw

21%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

47% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

75% Home Scores More 21% Equal Goals 4% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

77% BTTS No 23% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

24%

28%

20%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.6%	2.7%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
1	21.0%	7.4%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.2%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	12.4%	3.7%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.8%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Estrela	Draw	Nacional
Estrela	49.2%	1.6%	0.2%
Draw	25.1%	16.3%	2.2%
Nacional	1.3%	1.8%	2.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Estrela vs Nacional

1 Estrela Wins

1 Draws

1 Nacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
30 Aug 2026	Nacional	2 - 3	Estrela
04 Apr 2026	Nacional	2 - 0	Estrela
09 Nov 2025	Estrela	1 - 1	Nacional

Vedi tutti i 5 incontri — Premium

Estrela — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Academico Viseu	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Rio Ave	D	3 - 3
10 Sep	H SC Braga	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Famalicao	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Nacional	W	2 - 3

Nacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Famalicao	L	0 - 4
12 Sep	H Alverca	L	1 - 3
05 Sep	A Sporting CP	L	2 - 0
30 Aug	H Estrela	L	2 - 3
23 Aug	A Vitória SC	L	1 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.