Arouca vs Estrela Previsione

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8

11 Oct 2026, 15:00

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Estrela

Away

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Estrela

13%

29%

58%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Arouca vs Estrela: Sportiko assegna a Arouca una probabilità di vittoria del 13%, a Estrela del 58% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 17%

Both teams to score

37%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Arouca

DLDWL

Estrela

LDWDW

Last 3 meetings Arouca · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Arouca faces Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash on October 11, 2026. Arouca has shown resilience at home, boasting a solid defensive record with only 12 goals conceded in their last 10 home matches. Meanwhile, Estrela has struggled on the road, averaging less than 1 goal per game in away fixtures this season. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as Arouca has been effective from corners, while Estrela has been vulnerable to aerial threats. This match will be crucial for both teams as they aim to secure points in a tightly contested league.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Estrela goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	17	14	7	3	1
1	6	12	8	4	2
2	2	3	2	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Arouca goals · most likely 0–1 (17.0%)

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Players in form

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

Estrela

A. Marcus 4 gls

L. Antonetti 4 gls

I. Stoica 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

29%

Home Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

58%

Draw

29%

Home Win

13%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

81% Away (No Draw) 19% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Away Win by 2+ 4% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

58% Away Scores More 29% Equal Goals 13% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

36%

1.5

64%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS No 37% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.6%	17.0%	13.9%	7.0%	2.6%
1	5.9%	12.5%	8.3%	4.2%	1.6%
2	2.2%	3.3%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%
3	0.4%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

75%

1.5

26%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arouca	Draw	Estrela
Arouca	7.2%	3.2%	1.7%
Draw	6.1%	20.5%	21.3%
Estrela	0.6%	3.2%	36.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

55%

33%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

56%

1.5

44%

81%

2.5

19%

94%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

22%

34%

25%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arouca vs Estrela

2 Arouca Wins

0 Draws

1 Estrela Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Apr 2026	Arouca	1 - 0	Estrela
07 Dec 2025	Estrela	3 - 1	Arouca
19 Apr 2025	Arouca	1 - 0	Estrela

Vedi tutti i 6 incontri — Premium

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Estrela — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Academico Viseu	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Rio Ave	D	3 - 3
10 Sep	H SC Braga	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Famalicao	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Nacional	W	2 - 3

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.