Marseille vs Lille Previsione

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 16

16 Jan 2027, 16:00

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Lille

Away

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Lille

15%

27%

57%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Marseille vs Lille: Sportiko assegna a Marseille una probabilità di vittoria del 15%, a Lille del 57% e al pareggio del 27%. Ultimo aggiornamento 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Marseille

LLLLL

Lille

LWLWD

Last 3 meetings Marseille · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

Marseille faces Lille in a Ligue 1 clash, with both teams aiming for critical points in their campaigns. Marseille has shown a solid attacking form, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season, while Lille's defense has struggled, conceding 1.5 goals per game. The matchup may hinge on Marseille's ability to exploit defensive lapses, as Lille's midfield often leaves gaps during transitions. Both teams will be keen to secure a win, making this encounter significant for their standings. Key players to watch include Marseille's leading scorer and Lille's creative playmaker, whose performances could determine the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lille goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	10	13	12	7	3	1
1	5	13	9	5	2	1
2	3	4	4	2	1
3	1	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 0–1 (13.3%)

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Players in form

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

Lille

Tiago Santos 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

57%

Draw

27%

Home Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

57%

Draw

27%

Home Win

15%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

79% Away (No Draw) 21% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Away Win by 2+ 5% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 15% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS No 45% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	13.4%	12.4%	6.9%	2.9%
1	5.3%	12.7%	9.4%	5.2%	2.2%
2	2.6%	4.3%	3.6%	2.0%	0.8%
3	0.7%	1.1%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Marseille	Draw	Lille
Marseille	8.5%	3.6%	2.2%
Draw	6.7%	18.0%	20.3%
Lille	0.9%	3.6%	36.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

47%

36%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Lille

0 Marseille Wins

1 Draws

2 Lille Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Marseille	1 - 2	Lille
05 Dec 2025	Lille	1 - 0	Marseille
04 May 2025	Lille	1 - 1	Marseille

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Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Lille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Nice	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Estac Troyes	W	2 - 0
08 Sep	H Real Betis	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Toulouse	W	0 - 1
28 Aug	H Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.