Valencia vs Real Sociedad Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 7

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Real Sociedad

Away

Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia

Previsione AI Real Sociedad o pareggio

34%

30%

36%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Valencia vs Real Sociedad: Sportiko assegna a Valencia una probabilità di vittoria del 34%, a Real Sociedad del 36% e al pareggio del 30%. Ultimo aggiornamento 20 Sep 2026, 20:58.

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Oltre 1.5 Gol 76%
Ospite a Segno 74%
Casa a Segno 73%

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Match Report

Real Sociedad claimed a hard-fought 3–2 victory at Valencia in Matchday 7 of La Liga, with the decisive action coming in the closing stages. Luka Sučić opened the scoring in the 26th minute to give the visitors a half-time lead, and Aaron Mayol doubled the advantage shortly after the break. Valencia fought back through a Carlos Soler penalty on 75 minutes before an own goal from Luken Beitia levelled the contest at 2–2 with six minutes remaining.

Just as it appeared Valencia might salvage a point, Ander Barrenetxea struck in the 90th minute to seal all three points for Real Sociedad. The result was soured late on when Valencia's Orri Steinn Óskarsson received a second yellow card in stoppage time, reducing the hosts to ten men. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Sociedad win as the most likely outcome at 36%, a call that proved correct.

Both sides finished with 21 total shots, though Valencia's 54% possession ultimately counted for little. Real Sociedad's clinical finishing in key moments proved the difference across a lively, end-to-end contest.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Justin De Haas Yellow Card

11' ▮

José Luis Gayà Yellow Card

12' ▮

⚽ 0–1 26'

Luka Sučić assist: Job Ochieng

Filip Ugrinić ⇄ David Otorbi

45' ⇄

HT 0–1

▮ 54'

Luka Sučić Yellow Card

Aaron Mayol assist: Hugo Duro

57' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 61'

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Orri Steinn Óskarsson

⇄ 61'

Job Ochieng ⇄ Ander Barrenetxea

⇄ 69'

Jon Gorrotxategi ⇄ Yangel Herrera

⇄ 69'

Sergio Gómez ⇄ Aihen Muñoz

Guido Rodríguez ⇄ H. Elliott

69' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 75'

Carlos Soler Penalty

José Luis Gayà ⇄ Jesús Vázquez

82' ⇄

Hugo Duro ⇄ Aimar Blázquez

82' ⇄

Luken Beitia Own Goal

84' ⚽ 2–2

⇄ 87'

Luka Sučić ⇄ Arsen Zakharyan

Arnaut Danjuma ⇄ Luis Rioja

88' ⇄

⚽ 2–3 90+1'

Ander Barrenetxea assist: Carlos Soler

▮ 90+6'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson Yellow Card

▮ 90+6'

Orri Steinn Óskarsson Red Card

FT 2–3

Valencia

Match Stats

Real Sociedad

54% Ball Possession 46%

21 Total Shots 21

5 Shots on Goal 6

8 Shots off Goal 8

8 Blocked Shots 7

11 Shots insidebox 15

8 Shots outsidebox 6

7 Corner Kicks 5

2 Offsides 2

9 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

423 Total passes 370

357 Passes accurate 303

11 Free Kicks 9

Valencia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
33 Aaron Mayol M	7.8	90'	1	–	2	39 (36%)	3
27 David Otorbi F	7.2	44'	–	–	2	15 (15%)	2
7 Arnaut Danjuma M	7.1	88'	–	–	2	20 (15%)	–
11 Luis Rioja F	6.7	2'	–	–	–	–	–
9 Hugo Duro F	6.6	82'	–	1	3	9 (8%)	1
18 Pepelu D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	51 (45%)	4
2 Guido Rodríguez M	6.5	69'	–	–	–	47 (43%)	2
12 Justin De Haas D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	54 (47%)	2
8 Javier Guerra F	6.4	90'	–	–	6	24 (15%)	2
24 Pablo Maffeo D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	46 (40%)	2
23 Filip Ugrinić M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	35 (30%)	–
37 Aimar Blázquez F	6.2	8'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
14 José Luis Gayà D	6.1	82'	–	–	1	28 (27%)	2
10 H. Elliott M	6.1	21'	–	–	1	13 (13%)	–
21 Jesús Vázquez D	6.0	8'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
1 Stole Dimitrievski G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	34 (17%)	–

Real Sociedad

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
24 Luka Sučić F	8.2	87'	1	–	2	35 (33%)	–
7 Ander Barrenetxea F	7.8	29'	1	–	2	12 (8%)	1
18 Carlos Soler M	7.6	90'	1	1	3	39 (35%)	1
12 Job Ochieng M	6.9	61'	–	1	4	17 (11%)	2
17 Sergio Gómez D	6.8	69'	–	–	–	27 (25%)	1
10 Mikel Oyarzabal F	6.7	61'	–	–	3	12 (10%)	1
4 Jon Gorrotxategi M	6.7	69'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	4
2 Jon Aramburu D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	1
11 Gonçalo Guedes M	6.5	90'	–	–	3	26 (23%)	1
6 Jon Martin D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	29 (22%)	–
1 Álex Remiro G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	34 (17%)	–
3 Aihen Muñoz D	6.2	21'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
34 Luken Beitia D	6.1	90'	–	–	3	39 (32%)	3
21 Yangel Herrera M	6.1	21'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	1
23 Arsen Zakharyan M	5.7	3'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
9 Orri Steinn Óskarsson F	5.6	35'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	–

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Confidence Low (36%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Real Sociedad o pareggio

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Valencia

LWLLL

Real Sociedad

WLLWD

Last 3 meetings Valencia · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

Valencia faces Real Sociedad in a La Liga clash on September 20, 2026. Valencia's recent form has shown inconsistency, with a mixed record of wins and losses, while Real Sociedad has been solid, particularly in their defensive setup, conceding fewer goals compared to Valencia. The matchup could hinge on Valencia's ability to exploit potential gaps in Sociedad's backline, as they often rely on quick transitions. In contrast, Real Sociedad's midfield control will be crucial to dictate the pace of the game. Both teams will be eager to secure points early in the season, making this a vital encounter.

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-3! Real Sociedad win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

84' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 84.7%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

82' time check 80% sure

Min 82: Real Sociedad leads 1-2. Win probability: 90.4%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 9.6%.

76' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-2! Real Sociedad win probability: 85.2%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 33.3%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 68.4%. Late goal chance: 35.2%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

34%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

36%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Sociedad goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	6	3	1
1	8	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	3	4	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Valencia goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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Players in form

Valencia

No scorer data.

Real Sociedad

L. Sučić 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Away Win by 2+ 16% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 34% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	8.0%	6.4%	2.9%	1.0%
1	7.7%	14.1%	8.4%	3.7%	1.3%
2	6.1%	8.1%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.6%	3.5%	2.4%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.9%	1.1%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Valencia	Draw	Real Sociedad
Valencia	17.6%	3.6%	1.6%
Draw	15.0%	18.3%	12.6%
Real Sociedad	2.7%	5.5%	23.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

27%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Valencia vs Real Sociedad

2 Valencia Wins

1 Draws

0 Real Sociedad Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 May 2026	Real Sociedad	3 - 4	Valencia
16 Aug 2025	Valencia	1 - 1	Real Sociedad
19 Jan 2025	Valencia	1 - 0	Real Sociedad

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Valencia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
15 Sep	A Alaves	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	A Sevilla	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Barcelona	L	0 - 5
30 Aug	A Deportivo La Coruna	L	3 - 1

Real Sociedad — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Valencia	W	2 - 3
17 Sep	H Bournemouth	L	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Atletico Madrid	L	0 - 3
07 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
03 Sep	H Celta Vigo	D	0 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Valencia

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Óscar Sánchez

1 Dimitrievski

14 Gayà

12 Haas

18 Pepelu

24 Maffeo

7 Danjuma

2 Rodríguez

33 Mayol

23 Ugrinic

9 Duro

8 Guerra

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. Dimitrievski	G
24	Pablo Maffeo	D
18	Pepelu	D
12	J. de Haas	D
14	José Gayà	D
23	F. Ugrinic	M
33	Aaron Mayol	M
2	G. Rodríguez	M
7	A. Danjuma	M
8	Javi Guerra	F
9	Hugo Duro	F

Substitutes

36	Iker Córdoba	D
15	A. Dieng	M
10	H. Elliott	M
22	Arnau Martínez	D
27	David Otorbi	F
29	Alex Panach	D
19	Dani Raba	F
11	Luis Rioja	F
39	R. Sato	M
21	Jesús Vázquez	D
25	K. van Oevelen	G
37	Aimar Blázquez	F

Real Sociedad

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: P. Matarazzo

1 Remiro

17 Gómez

6 Martín

34 Beitia

2 Aramburu

11 Guedes

18 Soler

4 Gorrotxategi

12 Ochieng

10 Oyarzabal

24 Sučić

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Álex Remiro	G
2	J. Aramburu	D
34	Luken Beitia	D
6	Jon Martín	D
17	Sergio Gómez	D
12	J. Ochieng	M
4	Jon Gorrotxategi	M
18	Carlos Soler	M
11	Gonçalo Guedes	M
24	L. Sučić	F
10	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

7	Barrenetxea	F
22	Héctor Fort	D
21	Y. Herrera	M
14	T. Kubo	F
29	Alex Garcia	F
13	Unai Marrero	G
3	Aihen Muñoz	D
16	Jon Pacheco	D
19	M. Sarr	D
8	Beñat Turrientes	M
23	A. Zakharyan	M
9	O. Óskarsson	F