Alaves vs Valencia Previsione

La Liga · Regular Season - 6

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Valencia

Away

Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz

Previsione AI Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Alaves

54%

28%

18%

Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Alaves vs Valencia: Sportiko assegna a Alaves una probabilità di vittoria del 54%, a Valencia del 18% e al pareggio del 28%. Ultimo aggiornamento 15 Sep 2026, 19:57.

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Match Report

Alaves dominated possession and territory for much of this La Liga encounter but were unable to convert their pressure into goals, with a VAR cancellation of Arnaut Danjuma's effort in the 18th minute proving a significant early blow. The first half was feisty, with yellow cards shown to Javier Guerra and Antonio Blanco in quick succession before the break, and the teams went into half-time level at 0–0 despite Alaves enjoying 57% of the ball.

Valencia grew into the match after the interval, making a series of substitutions to freshen up their attack, and were rewarded when Luis Rioja broke the deadlock with a composed finish in the 78th minute. It was a decisive moment that Alaves could not recover from, despite their superior corner count and territorial control throughout.

The result was a surprise — our pre-match AI model had rated an Alaves win as the most likely outcome at 54%. Valencia's clinical edge ultimately proved the difference, as they secured all three points despite being outshot in corners and managing just three shots on target, matching Alaves' own tally.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 18'

Arnaut Danjuma Goal cancelled

▮ 21'

Javier Guerra Yellow Card

Antonio Blanco Yellow Card

21' ▮

▮ 45+2'

Pepelu Yellow Card

HT 0–0

▮ 52'

Aaron Mayol Yellow Card

▮ 61'

Guido Rodríguez Yellow Card

⇄ 63'

Hugo Duro ⇄ Luis Rioja

Toni Martínez ⇄ Mariano Diaz

67' ⇄

Denis Suarez ⇄ Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim

67' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Guido Rodríguez ⇄ David Otorbi

⚽ 0–1 78'

Luis Rioja assist: Javier Guerra

⇄ 82'

Luis Rioja ⇄ Jesús Vázquez

⇄ 82'

Justin De Haas ⇄ Iker Cordoba

⇄ 82'

Pablo Maffeo ⇄ Arnau Martínez

Ángel Pérez ⇄ Carles Aleñá

85' ⇄

Antonio Blanco ⇄ Ander Guevara

85' ⇄

Abderrahman Rebbach ⇄ Miguel Rodríguez

85' ⇄

FT 0–1

Alaves

Match Stats

Valencia

43% Ball Possession 57%

15 Total Shots 10

3 Shots on Goal 3

8 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 5

11 Shots insidebox 5

3 Shots outsidebox 5

2 Corner Kicks 5

3 Offsides 4

7 Fouls 14

1 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

343 Total passes 474

271 Passes accurate 388

14 Free Kicks 7

Alaves

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
2 Nicolás Valentini D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	44 (31%)	1
1 Antonio Sivera G	7.1	90'	–	–	–	24 (17%)	–
7 Ángel Pérez M	7.0	85'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	–
16 Ville Koski D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	40 (35%)	1
10 Carles Aleñá M	6.8	5'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D	6.7	23'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
6 Ander Guevara M	6.7	5'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	1
4 Denis Suarez M	6.6	67'	–	–	–	24 (20%)	2
14 Nahuel Tenaglia D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	27 (20%)	1
9 Mariano Diaz F	6.4	23'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
22 Miguel Rodríguez F	6.4	5'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
11 Toni Martínez F	6.3	67'	–	–	3	11 (7%)	1
15 Lucas Boyé F	6.3	90'	–	–	3	18 (15%)	2
19 Pablo Ibáñez M	6.2	90'	–	–	3	36 (24%)	3
8 Antonio Blanco M	6.1	85'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	4
21 Abderrahman Rebbach M	6.0	85'	–	–	1	27 (22%)	–

Valencia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Luis Rioja F	7.7	19'	1	–	1	7 (5%)	–
14 José Luis Gayà D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	49 (45%)	3
12 Justin De Haas D	7.3	82'	–	–	–	66 (58%)	1
1 Stole Dimitrievski G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	32 (20%)	–
7 Arnaut Danjuma M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	20 (17%)	–
18 Pepelu D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	71 (66%)	1
36 Iker Cordoba D	7.0	8'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
22 Arnau Martínez D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	2
21 Jesús Vázquez D	6.9	8'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
8 Javier Guerra M	6.8	90'	–	1	2	30 (22%)	–
24 Pablo Maffeo D	6.8	82'	–	–	1	42 (31%)	–
23 Filip Ugrinić M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	42 (39%)	–
2 Guido Rodríguez M	6.6	70'	–	–	1	49 (35%)	4
27 David Otorbi F	6.6	20'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	1
33 Aaron Mayol M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	40 (34%)	1
9 Hugo Duro F	6.3	63'	–	–	2	7 (4%)	1

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio

Vittoria o pareggio difficile per Alaves

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

44%

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Alaves

DLLWW

Valencia

LWLLL

Last 3 meetings Alaves · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga match, Alaves will face Valencia in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Alaves has shown resilience at home, often capitalizing on set pieces and maintaining a solid defensive structure. Valencia, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency but possesses a potent attacking lineup that can exploit defensive lapses. Recent form suggests that both teams will be eager to secure points, making this clash crucial for their league standings. Key battles in midfield and defensive organization will likely determine the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

54%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

18%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Valencia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	12	13	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Alaves goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

Alaves

L. Boyé 4 gls

M. Díaz 3 gls

Valencia

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

28%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

56%

2.5

44%

77%

3.5

23%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	5.6%	3.0%	0.8%	0.2%
1	12.4%	13.2%	4.9%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.3%	9.5%	4.0%	1.1%	0.2%
3	6.2%	5.2%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.5%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alaves	Draw	Valencia
Alaves	29.4%	3.6%	1.2%
Draw	23.7%	18.8%	9.0%
Valencia	2.5%	3.6%	8.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alaves vs Valencia

1 Alaves Wins

1 Draws

1 Valencia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
08 Mar 2026	Valencia	3 - 2	Alaves
20 Oct 2025	Alaves	0 - 0	Valencia
14 May 2025	Alaves	1 - 0	Valencia

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Alaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Athletic Club	D	0 - 0
15 Sep	H Valencia	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Racing Santander	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Osasuna	W	5 - 2
28 Aug	H Villarreal	W	1 - 0

Valencia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Sociedad	L	2 - 3
15 Sep	A Alaves	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	A Sevilla	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Barcelona	L	0 - 5
30 Aug	A Deportivo La Coruna	L	3 - 1

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Valencia

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Óscar Sánchez

1 Dimitrievski

14 Gayà

12 Haas

18 Pepelu

24 Maffeo

2 Rodríguez

33 Mayol

7 Danjuma

8 Guerra

23 Ugrinic

9 Duro

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. Dimitrievski	G
24	Pablo Maffeo	D
18	Pepelu	D
12	J. de Haas	D
14	José Gayà	D
33	Aaron Mayol	M
2	G. Rodríguez	M
23	F. Ugrinic	M
8	Javi Guerra	M
7	A. Danjuma	M
9	Hugo Duro	F

Substitutes

21	Jesús Vázquez	D
39	R. Sato	M
11	Luis Rioja	F
19	Dani Raba	F
29	Alex Panach	D
27	David Otorbi	F
22	Arnau Martínez	D
10	H. Elliott	M
15	A. Dieng	M
36	Iker Córdoba	D
37	Aimar Blázquez	F
25	K. van Oevelen	G

Alaves

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

1 Sivera

2 Valentini

16 Koski

14 Tenaglia

21 Rebbach

4 Suárez

8 Blanco

19 Ibáñez

7 Pérez

15 Boyé

11 Martínez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Sivera	G
14	N. Tenaglia	D
16	V. Koski	D
2	N. Valentini	D
7	Angel Pérez	M
19	Pablo Ibáñez	M
8	Antonio Blanco	M
4	Denis Suárez	M
21	A. Rebbach	M
11	Toni Martínez	F
15	L. Boyé	F

Substitutes

23	C. Benavídez	M
10	Carles Aleñá	M
17	Jonny	D
24	Selu Diallo	M
9	M. Díaz	F
3	Yusi	D
6	Guevara	M
29	Izei Hernández	F
12	Hugo Novoa	F
27	X. Olaiz	D
13	A. Giménez	G
22	Miguel Rodríguez	F