Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Previsione

La Liga La Liga · Regular Season - 1
FT
Post on X
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo
Previsione AI Celta Vigo o pareggio
50%
29%
21%
Vittoria Casa Pareggio Vittoria Ospite

Pronostico Celta Vigo vs Osasuna: Sportiko assegna a Celta Vigo una probabilità di vittoria del 50%, a Osasuna del 21% e al pareggio del 29%. Ultimo aggiornamento 27 Aug 2026, 20:30.

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Match Report

Celta Vigo took an early lead through Iago Aspas, who struck in the 14th minute to give the hosts a 1–0 advantage at half-time. However, the match turned dramatically in the second half when Marcos Alonso was shown a red card in the 51st minute, leaving Celta a man down and altering the contest entirely.

Osasuna capitalised swiftly on the numerical advantage. Kike Barja levelled matters in the 54th minute, and Ante Budimir then converted a penalty in the 63rd minute to put the visitors ahead. Despite our pre-match AI model rating a Celta win as the most likely outcome at 50%, Osasuna ultimately proved the stronger side. The underlying statistics told a clear story, with Osasuna registering 12 total shots to Celta's two and posting a commanding expected goals figure of 2.17 against the hosts' 0.09.

Celta were unable to find an equaliser despite a flurry of substitutions in the second half, and Osasuna held on to claim all three points in a match that swung decisively after the hour mark.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Iago Aspas assist: Miguel Román
14' ⚽ 1–0
▮ 27'
Jon Moncayola Yellow Card
HT 1–0
⇄ 46'
Jon Moncayola ⇄ Iker Muñoz
Marcos Alonso Red Card
51' ▮
Iago Aspas ⇄ Carl Starfelt
52' ⇄
⚽ 1–1 54'
Kike Barja assist: Raúl García de Haro
⇄ 58'
Jonathan Dubasin ⇄ Ante Budimir
⇄ 58'
Jorge Herrando ⇄ Rubén García
⚽ 1–2 63'
Ante Budimir Penalty
Javi Galán ⇄ Sergio Carreira
65' ⇄
Javier Rueda ⇄ Hugo Álvarez
65' ⇄
Williot Swedberg ⇄ Jones El-Abdellaoui
65' ⇄
⇄ 74'
Kike Barja ⇄ Moi Gómez
Pablo Durán ⇄ Ferran Jutglà
79' ⇄
⇄ 82'
Raúl García de Haro ⇄ Aimar Oroz
FT 1–2
Celta Vigo

Match Stats

Osasuna
50% Ball Possession 50%
0.09 Expected Goals (xG) 2.17
2 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Goal 4
0 Shots off Goal 5
0 Blocked Shots 3
0 Shots insidebox 7
2 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Corner Kicks 3
3 Offsides 4
5 Fouls 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
509 Total passes 491
440 Passes accurate 430
86% Passes % 88%
-0.70 goals_prevented -0.70
Celta Vigo
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
10 Iago Aspas F 7.6 52' 1 – 1 23 (18%) –
19 Williot Swedberg F 6.9 65' – – – 11 (9%) 2
8 Miguel Román M 6.9 89' – 1 – 71 (66%) –
5 Sergio Carreira D 6.7 24' – – – 13 (11%) –
11 Pablo Durán F 6.7 79' – – – 14 (10%) –
23 Hugo Álvarez M 6.7 24' – – – 10 (8%) –
39 Jones El-Abdellaoui F 6.7 24' – – 1 5 (4%) –
9 Ferran Jutglà F 6.6 10' – – – 4 (4%) –
17 Javier Rueda M 6.6 65' – – – 18 (17%) –
20 Javi Rodríguez D 6.5 89' – – – 67 (60%) –
2 Carl Starfelt D 6.3 37' – – – 17 (17%) 1
29 Yoel Lago D 6.3 89' – – – 48 (44%) 1
22 Javi Galán M 6.3 65' – – – 40 (30%) 2
3 Marcos Alonso D 6.2 51' – – – 74 (66%) –
6 Ilaix Moriba M 6.2 89' – – – 57 (53%) 1
13 Ionuț Radu G 5.9 89' – – – 37 (23%) –
Osasuna
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
24 Alejandro Catena D 7.5 89' – – – 87 (81%) –
17 Ante Budimir F 7.3 31' 1 – 1 2 (1%) 2
11 Kike Barja M 7.2 74' 1 – 2 27 (24%) 1
8 Iker Muñoz M 6.9 44' – – – 29 (27%) –
6 Lucas Torró M 6.9 89' – – 1 55 (46%) 2
29 Asier Osambela D 6.9 89' – – – 72 (61%) 1
16 Moi Gómez F 6.7 15' – – – 10 (9%) –
9 Raúl García de Haro F 6.6 82' – 1 3 17 (16%) –
5 Jorge Herrando D 6.5 58' – – – 40 (34%) –
7 Jon Moncayola M 6.5 45' – – – 19 (16%) 2
1 Sergio Herrera G 6.3 89' – – – 12 (10%) –
23 Abel Bretones D 6.3 89' – – 1 44 (40%) –
27 Iñigo Arguibide D 6.3 89' – – – 32 (26%) 2
21 Jonathan Dubasin M 6.3 58' – – – 22 (18%) 1
14 Rubén García M 5.9 31' – – 1 21 (19%) –
10 Aimar Oroz M — 7' – – – 2 (2%) –
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Confidence Low (50%)

At a glance

Il nostro approccio
Celta Vigo o pareggio
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Celta Vigo
WLDDD
Osasuna
DLLLW
Last 3 meetings Celta Vigo · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Celta Vigo faces Osasuna in La Liga, with both teams looking to establish momentum early in the season. Celta's attack, led by their dynamic forwards, finished last season with an average of 1.5 goals per game, while Osasuna's defense was notably resilient, conceding only 1.2 goals per match. The matchup will hinge on Celta's ability to break through Osasuna's organized backline. Historically, Celta has had the edge in home encounters, but Osasuna's counter-attacking prowess could pose significant challenges. Overall, this clash promises to be competitive, with tactical discipline likely to play a crucial role.
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
50%
45%
Draw
29%
45%
Away
21%
10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Celta Vigo

No scorer data.

Osasuna
A. Budimir 5 gls

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Head to Head: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna

2 Celta Vigo Wins
0 Draws
1 Osasuna Wins
Date Home Score Away
06 Feb 2026 Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Osasuna
26 Oct 2025 Osasuna 2 - 3 Celta Vigo
21 Feb 2025 Celta Vigo 1 - 0 Osasuna
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Celta Vigo — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep H Racing Santander W 5 - 0
16 Sep A Omonia Nicosia L 1 - 0
13 Sep H Malaga D 1 - 1
07 Sep A Getafe D 1 - 1
03 Sep A Real Sociedad D 0 - 0

Osasuna — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
19 Sep H Rayo Vallecano D 1 - 1
16 Sep A Atletico Madrid L 4 - 0
12 Sep H Espanyol L 0 - 2
06 Sep A Alaves L 5 - 2
31 Aug H Getafe W 1 - 0

La Liga Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Barcelona
7 7 0 0 +24 21
2
Atletico Madrid
7 5 1 1 +9 16
3
Real Betis
7 5 1 1 +2 16
4
Real Madrid
7 5 0 2 +10 15
5
Sevilla
7 4 1 2 +1 13
6
Alaves
7 3 2 2 +5 11
7
Deportivo La Coruna
7 2 4 1 +2 10
8
Real Sociedad
7 3 1 3 -4 10
9
Villarreal
7 2 2 3 +1 8
10
Athletic Club
6 2 2 2 +1 8
11
Getafe
7 2 2 3 -3 8
12
Rayo Vallecano
7 2 2 3 -5 8
13
Osasuna
7 2 2 3 -7 8
14
Celta Vigo
7 1 4 2 +2 7
15
Espanyol
7 2 1 4 0 7
16
Racing Santander
7 2 1 4 -10 7
17
Levante
6 1 2 3 -4 5
18
Elche
7 1 2 4 -6 5
19
Valencia
7 1 1 5 -9 4
20
Malaga
7 0 3 4 -9 3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.

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