Moreirense vs Arouca Prédiction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27

Post on X

Arouca

Away

Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos

Prédiction IA Moreirense ou match nul

49%

31%

19%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Moreirense vs Arouca : Sportiko estime que Moreirense a 49% de chances de s'imposer, Arouca 19% et le match nul 31%. Dernière mise à jour : 13 Jul 2026, 16:01.

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Moreirense ou match nul

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Moreirense

DWLLW

Arouca

DLDWL

Last 3 meetings Moreirense · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Primeira Liga clash between Moreirense and Arouca, both teams are vying for crucial points as the season approaches its climax. Moreirense, playing at home, has a slight advantage, with a home win percentage of approximately 40% this season. Conversely, Arouca has struggled away from home, securing only 25% of their points on the road. Moreirense's recent form shows they have scored an average of 1.3 goals per match, while Arouca has conceded an average of 1.8 goals in their last five outings. This match will likely hinge on Moreirense’s ability to exploit Arouca’s defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

49%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	17	10	3	1
1	20	12	4	1
2	12	7	2
3	5	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Moreirense goals · most likely 1–0 (19.5%)

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Players in form

Moreirense

Guilherme Schettine 9 gls

Arouca

A. Trezza 9 gls

Barbero 8 gls

Lee Hyun-Ju 7 gls

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Head to Head: Moreirense vs Arouca

1 Moreirense Wins

0 Draws

2 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
16 Aug 2026	Arouca	4 - 0	Moreirense
02 Nov 2025	Arouca	0 - 2	Moreirense
24 Jan 2025	Arouca	1 - 0	Moreirense

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Moreirense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Vitória SC	D	1 - 1
14 Sep	H Maritimo	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	H Benfica	L	0 - 4
04 Sep	A FC Porto	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	A Casa Pia	W	0 - 1

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66	18	+48	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89	24	+65	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74	25	+49	80
4	SC Braga	34	16	11	7	64	36	+28	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42	29	+13	56
6	GIL Vicente	34	13	11	10	47	38	+9	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37	49	-12	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47	64	-17	42
9	Vitória SC	34	12	6	16	39	51	-12	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54	57	-3	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35	52	-17	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35	57	-22	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32	41	-9	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37	45	-8	34
15	Estrela	34	6	12	16	38	56	-18	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31	57	-26	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27	55	-28	28
18	AVS	34	3	12	19	27	67	-40	21

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.