Parma vs AS Roma Prédiction

Serie A · Regular Season - 36

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AS Roma

Away

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour AS Roma

21%

28%

51%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Parma vs AS Roma : Sportiko estime que Parma a 21% de chances de s'imposer, AS Roma 51% et le match nul 28%. Dernière mise à jour : 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Roma claimed a dramatic 3–2 victory at Parma in Serie A's 36th round, with all the decisive action crammed into a breathless final quarter-hour. Donyell Malen had given the visitors a composed first-half lead on 22 minutes, and although Gabriel Strefezza levelled just two minutes after the restart, Roma retained their shape through a busy spell of substitutions across the hour mark.

The match appeared to be drifting toward a share of the points before an extraordinary late flurry settled it. Mandela Keita restored Roma's advantage on 87 minutes, and Devyne Rensch added a third in the 90th — a penalty later confirmed by VAR — before Malen converted a spot-kick of his own to pull one back for Parma deep into stoppage time. Sascha Britschgi was dismissed after collecting a second yellow in the chaos of added time.

The result was somewhat against the run of play on the night, with Parma dominating possession at 66% and generating 2.62 expected goals to Roma's 0.73. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Roma win as the most likely outcome at 51%, a call that proved correct in the most dramatic of fashions.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 22'

D. Malen assist: Paulo Dybala

HT 0–1

Gabriel Strefezza assist: Hans Nicolussi Caviglia

47' ⚽ 1–1

Gabriel Strefezza Yellow Card

48' ▮

Gabriel Strefezza ⇄ Mateo Pellegrino

53' ⇄

⇄ 53'

Mario Hermoso ⇄ Daniele Ghilardi

⇄ 58'

Matías Soulé ⇄ Niccolò Pisilli

⇄ 59'

Bryan Cristante ⇄ Neil El Aynaoui

Mariano Troilo Yellow Card

65' ▮

Emanuele Valeri ⇄ Franco Carboni

74' ⇄

Enrico Delprato ⇄ Sascha Britschgi

74' ⇄

⇄ 75'

Zeki Çelik ⇄ Devyne Rensch

⇄ 75'

Manu Koné ⇄ Lorenzo Venturino

Sascha Britschgi Yellow Card

76' ▮

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia ⇄ Nahuel Estévez

79' ⇄

Nesta Elphege ⇄ Pontus Almqvist

79' ⇄

Mandela Keita assist: Nahuel Estévez

87' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 90'

Devyne Rensch

⚽ 2–3 90'

D. Malen Penalty

🖵 90+8'

Devyne Rensch Penalty confirmed

Sascha Britschgi Yellow Card

90+9' ▮

Sascha Britschgi Red Card

90+9' ▮

FT 2–3

Parma

Match Stats

AS Roma

34% Ball Possession 66%

0.73 Expected Goals (xG) 2.62

11 Total Shots 15

3 Shots on Goal 7

5 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 3

6 Shots insidebox 12

5 Shots outsidebox 3

3 Corner Kicks 6

4 Offsides 4

14 Fouls 8

4 Yellow Cards 0

1 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 1

291 Total passes 569

227 Passes accurate 499

78% Passes % 88%

-1.05 goals_prevented -1.05

Parma

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Mandela Keita M	8.0	90'	1	–	1	33 (28%)	5
7 Gabriel Strefezza F	7.9	53'	1	–	5	12 (10%)	–
41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia M	7.2	79'	–	1	1	33 (26%)	2
14 Emanuele Valeri M	7.0	74'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	–
15 Enrico Delprato M	6.9	74'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	2
8 Nahuel Estévez M	6.7	11'	–	1	–	3 (3%)	1
23 Nesta Elphege F	6.6	79'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	1
5 Lautaro Valenti D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	30 (25%)	5
9 Mateo Pellegrino F	6.3	37'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
24 Christian Ordoñez M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	21 (19%)	3
37 Mariano Troilo D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	26 (22%)	2
11 Pontus Almqvist F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
29 Franco Carboni D	6.2	16'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
31 Zion Suzuki G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	39 (19%)	–
39 Alessandro Circati D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	35 (29%)	–
27 Sascha Britschgi D	4.7	25'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–

AS Roma

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 D. Malen F	8.3	90'	2	–	5	11 (10%)	–
21 Paulo Dybala F	8.2	90'	–	1	–	67 (59%)	1
2 Devyne Rensch D	7.6	15'	1	–	1	10 (8%)	–
8 Neil El Aynaoui M	7.3	31'	–	–	1	26 (25%)	3
43 Wesley M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	49 (42%)	–
19 Zeki Çelik M	6.7	75'	–	–	–	38 (32%)	2
87 Daniele Ghilardi D	6.7	37'	–	–	–	27 (25%)	1
4 Bryan Cristante M	6.6	59'	–	–	–	50 (40%)	2
20 Lorenzo Venturino F	6.6	15'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
99 Mile Svilar G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	–
22 Mario Hermoso D	6.5	53'	–	–	–	62 (56%)	–
5 Evan Ndicka D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	45 (41%)	–
61 Niccolò Pisilli M	6.3	32'	–	–	1	21 (18%)	–
18 Matías Soulé F	6.3	58'	–	–	1	30 (28%)	–
17 Manu Koné M	6.2	75'	–	–	–	61 (53%)	–
23 Gianluca Mancini D	5.6	90'	–	–	1	43 (39%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour AS Roma

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Parma

WLDLL

AS Roma

DWDWW

Last 3 meetings Parma · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash on May 10, 2026, Parma will host AS Roma at Stadio Ennio Tardini. Parma, struggling in the relegation zone, will need to harness home advantage, where they've historically performed better, particularly against top teams. AS Roma, currently in contention for European spots, boast a strong away record, with an average of 1.8 goals scored per match this season. The key battle will be between Parma's defense, which has conceded an average of 2 goals per game, and Roma's dynamic attacking trio. Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, with Roma likely seeking to dominate possession and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Parma.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

AS Roma goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	17	11	5	2
1	9	12	8	4	1
2	3	5	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Parma goals · most likely 0–1 (16.8%)

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Players in form

Parma

No scorer data.

AS Roma

D. Malen 6 gls

M. Soulé 2 gls

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Head to Head: Parma vs AS Roma

0 Parma Wins

0 Draws

3 AS Roma Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Oct 2025	AS Roma	2 - 1	Parma
16 Feb 2025	Parma	0 - 1	AS Roma
22 Dec 2024	AS Roma	5 - 0	Parma

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Parma — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Genoa	W	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Como	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Monza	D	1 - 1
01 Sep	H Cremonese	L	0 - 2
29 Aug	A Juventus	L	2 - 0

AS Roma — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Inter	D	2 - 2
14 Sep	A Torino	W	0 - 2
10 Sep	A Fenerbahçe	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H Atalanta	W	2 - 1
31 Aug	A Lecce	W	0 - 4

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

AS Roma

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian

99 Svilar

22 Hermoso

5 Ndicka

23 Mancini

43 Franca

17 Kone

4 Cristante

19 Celik

21 Dybala

18 Soule

14 Malen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	M. Svilar	G
23	G. Mancini	D
5	E. Ndicka	D
22	M. Hermoso	D
19	Z. Celik	M
4	B. Cristante	M
17	M. Kone	M
43	Wesley Franca	M
18	M. Soule	F
21	P. Dybala	F
14	D. Malen	F

Substitutes

70	G. De Marzi	G
95	P. Gollini	G
12	K. Tsimikas	D
61	N. Pisilli	M
24	J. Ziolkowski	D
78	R. Vaz	F
3	Angelino	D
2	D. Rensch	D
87	D. Ghilardi	D
8	N. El Aynaoui	M
20	L. Venturino	F

Parma

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Carlos Cuesta

31 Suzuki

5 Valenti

37 Troilo

39 Circati

14 Valeri

16 Keita

41 Caviglia

24 Ordonez

15 Delprato

7 Strefezza

23 Elphege

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Z. Suzuki	G
39	A. Circati	D
37	M. Troilo	D
5	L. Valenti	D
15	E. Delprato	M
24	C. Ordonez	M
41	H. Nicolussi Caviglia	M
16	M. Keita	M
14	E. Valeri	M
23	N. Elphege	F
7	G. Strefezza	F

Substitutes

40	E. Corvi	G
66	F. Rinaldi	G
8	N. Estevez	M
11	P. Almqvist	F
17	J. Ondrejka	F
3	A. Ndiaye	D
22	O. Sorensen	M
29	F. Carboni	D
9	M. Pellegrino	F
76	D. Mikolajewski	F
61	D. Drobnic	D
27	S. Britschgi	D