Parma vs Napoli Prédiction

Serie A · Regular Season - 32

Post on X

Napoli

Away

Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Prédiction IA Napoli pour gagner ou match nul

13%

21%

67%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Parma vs Napoli : Sportiko estime que Parma a 13% de chances de s'imposer, Napoli 67% et le match nul 21%. Dernière mise à jour : 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Parma stunned Napoli with a goal inside the opening minute, Gabriel Strefezza finishing to give the hosts an early lead that they carried into half-time. Despite Napoli dominating possession with 74% of the ball and generating 20 shots to Parma's three, Antonio Conte's side struggled to convert their pressure into clear-cut chances, with an expected goals figure of just 0.19 reflecting how little they truly threatened.

Napoli finally drew level shortly after the hour mark when Scott McTominay equalised in the 60th minute, cancelling out Strefezza's opener. Both managers turned to their benches in search of a winner, with Kevin De Bruyne among the late introductions for Napoli, but neither side could find a decisive goal. Alessandro Circati picked up a yellow card for Parma in the closing stages as tensions rose.

The draw leaves Napoli frustrated after a dominant but largely ineffective performance — our pre-match AI model had rated a Napoli win as the most likely outcome at 67%, a call that ultimately did not materialise. Parma, for their part, will be satisfied with a hard-earned point.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Gabriel Strefezza assist: Nesta Elphege

1' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Juan Jesus ⇄ Sam Beukema

⇄ 56'

Frank Anguissa ⇄ Alisson Santos

Nesta Elphege ⇄ Oliver Sørensen

59' ⇄

⚽ 1–1 60'

Scott McTominay

Hans Nicolussi Caviglia ⇄ Nahuel Estévez

66' ⇄

⇄ 66'

⇄ Giovane

Adrián Bernabé ⇄ Christian Ordoñez

67' ⇄

Gabriel Strefezza

72' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Kevin De Bruyne ⇄ Eljif Elmas

⇄ 79'

Matteo Politano ⇄ Miguel Gutiérrez

Alessandro Circati Yellow Card

83' ▮

FT 1–1

Parma

Match Stats

Napoli

26% Ball Possession 74%

0.19 Expected Goals (xG) 1.22

3 Total Shots 20

2 Shots on Goal 6

0 Shots off Goal 6

1 Blocked Shots 8

1 Shots insidebox 16

2 Shots outsidebox 4

3 Corner Kicks 7

2 Offsides 2

4 Fouls 8

1 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

4 Goalkeeper Saves 1

246 Total passes 715

178 Passes accurate 657

72% Passes % 92%

-0.68 goals_prevented -0.68

Parma

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
37 Mariano Troilo D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	24 (19%)	1
7 Gabriel Strefezza F	7.5	72'	1	–	1	20 (16%)	1
5 Lautaro Valenti D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	31 (23%)	2
39 Alessandro Circati D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	23 (18%)	1
31 Zion Suzuki G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (21%)	–
16 Mandela Keita M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	15 (12%)	1
14 Emanuele Valeri M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	4
24 Christian Ordoñez M	6.9	23'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
23 Nesta Elphege F	6.9	59'	–	1	–	10 (6%)	–
76 Daniel Mikołajewski F	6.7	18'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
15 Enrico Delprato M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	15 (10%)	2
10 Adrián Bernabé M	6.5	67'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	1
22 Oliver Sørensen M	6.5	31'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
8 Nahuel Estévez M	6.3	24'	–	–	–	7 (2%)	–
41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia M	6.2	66'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–

Napoli

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
68 Stanislav Lobotka M	7.9	90'	–	–	–	89 (83%)	2
31 Sam Beukema D	7.3	45'	–	–	–	54 (54%)	1
8 Scott McTominay F	7.2	90'	1	–	2	46 (39%)	–
17 Mathías Olivera D	7.2	90'	–	–	1	119 (111%)	5
4 Alessandro Buongiorno D	7.2	90'	–	–	1	81 (80%)	1
37 Leonardo Spinazzola M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	65 (56%)	2
3 Miguel Gutiérrez D	7.0	11'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	–
27 Alisson Santos F	7.0	34'	–	–	4	15 (13%)	–
11 Kevin De Bruyne F	6.7	78'	–	–	1	50 (38%)	2
99 Frank Anguissa M	6.5	56'	–	–	–	46 (44%)	1
32 Vanja Milinković-Savić G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	29 (27%)	–
5 Juan Jesus D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	43 (43%)	–
21 Matteo Politano M	6.3	79'	–	–	1	45 (39%)	–
20 Eljif Elmas M	6.3	12'	–	–	1	4 (4%)	–
23 Giovane F	6.2	24'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
19 Rasmus Højlund F	5.9	66'	–	1	–	12 (11%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

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Napoli pour gagner ou match nul

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Parma

WLDLL

Napoli

DWLLL

Last 3 meetings Parma · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash on April 12, 2026, Parma will host Napoli at their home ground. Parma has struggled this season, currently sitting in the lower half of the table, with defensive vulnerabilities evident in their last few matches, conceding an average of 2 goals per game. Conversely, Napoli has been in strong form, boasting a top-three position and an impressive away record, scoring over 2 goals per game on average. Historical data shows Napoli has had the upper hand in recent encounters, which could play a crucial psychological role. Expect Napoli to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities, while Parma will look to capitalize on counter-attacks.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Napoli goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	14	14	9	4	2
1	5	10	9	6	3	1
2	2	3	3	2	1
3		1	1
4
5

↑ Parma goals · most likely 0–1 (14.2%)

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Head to Head: Parma vs Napoli

0 Parma Wins

2 Draws

1 Napoli Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jan 2026	Napoli	0 - 0	Parma
18 May 2025	Parma	0 - 0	Napoli
31 Aug 2024	Napoli	2 - 1	Parma

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Parma — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Genoa	W	2 - 1
14 Sep	A Como	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Monza	D	1 - 1
01 Sep	H Cremonese	L	0 - 2
29 Aug	A Juventus	L	2 - 0

Napoli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fiorentina	D	1 - 1
13 Sep	H Bologna	W	1 - 0
09 Sep	H Arsenal	L	0 - 1
05 Sep	A Inter	L	3 - 2
30 Aug	H Como	L	1 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AS Roma	5	4	1	0	14	3	+11	13
2	Inter	5	4	1	0	15	8	+7	13
3	Lazio	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
4	Cagliari	5	4	0	1	5	2	+3	12
5	AC Milan	5	3	2	0	10	4	+6	11
6	Frosinone	5	3	1	1	9	4	+5	10
7	Juventus	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
8	Como	5	3	1	1	9	6	+3	10
9	Napoli	5	2	1	2	7	6	+1	7
10	Sassuolo	5	2	1	2	9	9	0	7
11	Atalanta	5	2	0	3	5	7	-2	6
12	Lecce	5	2	0	3	5	10	-5	6
13	Udinese	5	1	1	3	8	11	-3	4
14	Torino	5	1	1	3	5	8	-3	4
15	Parma	5	1	1	3	4	7	-3	4
16	Monza	5	1	1	3	8	12	-4	4
17	Fiorentina	5	1	1	3	6	12	-6	4
18	Bologna	5	0	2	3	3	6	-3	2
19	Genoa	5	0	1	4	3	10	-7	1
20	Venezia	5	0	0	5	4	13	-9	0

Napoli

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Antonio Conte

32 Milinkovic-Savic

17 Olivera

4 Buongiorno

5 Jesus

37 Spinazzola

68 Lobotka

99 Anguissa

21 Politano

8 McTominay

11 Bruyne

19 Hojlund

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
32	V. Milinkovic-Savic	G
5	Juan Jesus	D
4	A. Buongiorno	D
17	M. Olivera	D
21	M. Politano	M
99	F. Anguissa	M
68	S. Lobotka	M
37	L. Spinazzola	M
11	K. De Bruyne	F
8	S. McTominay	F
19	R. Hojlund	F

Substitutes

1	A. Meret	G
14	N. Contini	G
30	P. Mazzocchi	D
20	E. Elmas	M
31	S. Beukema	D
3	M. Gutierrez	D
23	Giovane	F
6	B. Gilmour	M
27	Alisson Santos	F

Parma

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Carlos Cuesta

31 Suzuki

5 Valenti

37 Troilo

39 Circati

14 Valeri

16 Keita

41 Caviglia

10 Bernabe

15 Delprato

7 Strefezza

23 Elphege

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Z. Suzuki	G
39	A. Circati	D
37	M. Troilo	D
5	L. Valenti	D
15	E. Delprato	M
10	A. Bernabe	M
41	H. Nicolussi Caviglia	M
16	M. Keita	M
14	E. Valeri	M
23	N. Elphege	F
7	G. Strefezza	F

Substitutes

40	E. Corvi	G
66	F. Rinaldi	G
8	N. Estevez	M
11	P. Almqvist	F
21	G. Oristanio	M
17	J. Ondrejka	F
3	A. Ndiaye	D
24	C. Ordonez	M
22	O. Sorensen	M
29	F. Carboni	D
76	D. Mikolajewski	F
27	S. Britschgi	D