Marseille vs Lyon Prédiction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 25

21 Mar 2027, 19:45

Post on X

Lyon

Away

Prédiction IA Lyon ou match nul

27%

45%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Marseille vs Lyon : Sportiko estime que Marseille a 27% de chances de s'imposer, Lyon 45% et le match nul 27%. Dernière mise à jour : 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:1 · 12.9%

Both teams to score

59%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Marseille

LLLLL

Lyon

WWDWD

Last 3 meetings Marseille · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In this Ligue 1 clash, Marseille faces Lyon, two teams with a storied rivalry. Marseille has shown strong offensive capabilities, averaging 1.8 goals per match this season, while Lyon has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per match. Both teams are vying for European qualification, making this a crucial encounter. Key players to watch include Marseille's leading scorer and Lyon's playmaker, who can influence the game's outcome. Tactical setups could play a significant role, with Marseille likely opting for an aggressive press to exploit Lyon's defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

27%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

45%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lyon goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	8	8	4	2	1
1	5	13	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 1–1 (12.9%)

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Players in form

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

Lyon

E. Nuamah 3 gls

Z. Athekame 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

27%

Home Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

27%

Home Win

27%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

63% Away (No Draw) 37% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Away Win by 2+ 12% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Away Scores More 27% Equal Goals 27% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

84%

4.5

16%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS Yes 41% BTTS No

Exact Goals

13%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	7.7%	7.7%	4.2%	1.8%
1	5.4%	12.9%	9.5%	5.3%	2.2%
2	4.3%	7.1%	5.9%	3.3%	1.4%
3	1.8%	2.9%	2.4%	1.4%	0.6%
4	0.6%	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

61%

1.5

39%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

25%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Marseille	Draw	Lyon
Marseille	15.9%	4.6%	2.7%
Draw	10.3%	16.3%	16.1%
Lyon	1.8%	4.4%	28.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Lyon

2 Marseille Wins

0 Draws

1 Lyon Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Mar 2026	Marseille	3 - 2	Lyon
31 Aug 2025	Lyon	1 - 0	Marseille
02 Feb 2025	Marseille	3 - 2	Lyon

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Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rennes	W	4 - 0
16 Sep	A Anderlecht	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Paris FC	D	0 - 0
04 Sep	H Auxerre	W	3 - 1
29 Aug	H Le Havre	D	1 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.