Marseille vs Paris FC Prédiction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Paris FC

Away

Prédiction IA Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Marseille

52%

26%

22%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Marseille vs Paris FC : Sportiko estime que Marseille a 52% de chances de s'imposer, Paris FC 22% et le match nul 26%. Dernière mise à jour : 6 Sep 2026, 20:42.

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Match Report

Marseille suffered a stunning home defeat to Paris FC in Ligue 1, going down 3–2 despite dominating possession at 60%. The opening exchanges were frantic, with Lassine Sinayoko giving the visitors the lead inside the first minute before Amine Gouiri levelled for Marseille on eight minutes. Sinayoko struck again on 19 minutes to restore Paris FC's advantage, leaving the hosts with a deficit to overturn at the break.

Gouiri equalised again early in the second half on 53 minutes, briefly raising hopes of a Marseille comeback, but the match ultimately turned on a VAR-confirmed penalty in the 83rd minute. Sinayoko converted from the spot on 86 minutes to complete his hat-trick and seal a dramatic winner for Paris FC, though he was immediately booked and later substituted. Our pre-match AI model had favoured a Marseille win at 52%, a call that proved wide of the mark.

Despite outshooting Paris FC 14 to 18 in total attempts, Marseille's five shots on target proved insufficient, while the visitors' clinical edge — seven shots on target — made the difference on a chastening evening for the home side.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 1'

Lassine Sinayoko assist: Luca Koleosho

Amine Gouiri

8' ⚽ 1–1

⚽ 1–2 19'

Lassine Sinayoko assist: Pablo Pagis

HT 1–2

Amine Gouiri assist: Amine Harit

53' ⚽ 2–2

⇄ 64'

Pablo Pagis ⇄ Rudy Matondo

▮ 65'

Rudy Matondo Yellow Card

Igor Paixão ⇄ T. Mmadi

72' ⇄

Angel Gomes ⇄ Keyliane Abdallah

73' ⇄

Nayef Aguerd ⇄ Derek Cornelius

73' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Luca Koleosho ⇄ Moses Simon

⇄ 78'

Ilan Kebbal ⇄ Patrick Zabi

🖵 83'

Moses Simon Penalty confirmed

⚽ 2–3 86'

Lassine Sinayoko Penalty

▮ 87'

Lassine Sinayoko Yellow Card

⇄ 90+1'

Maxime López ⇄ Moustapha Mbow

⇄ 90+1'

Lassine Sinayoko ⇄ Omar Sissoko

Emerson Palmieri ⇄ Ulisses Garcia

90+1' ⇄

Himad Abdelli ⇄ Faris Moumbagna

90+1' ⇄

FT 2–3

Marseille

Match Stats

Paris FC

60% Ball Possession 40%

14 Total Shots 18

5 Shots on Goal 7

7 Shots off Goal 8

2 Blocked Shots 3

10 Shots insidebox 12

4 Shots outsidebox 6

5 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 1

10 Fouls 12

0 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 3

644 Total passes 421

596 Passes accurate 348

12 Free Kicks 9

Marseille

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Amine Gouiri F	8.4	90'	2	–	4	24 (20%)	–
77 Amine Harit M	7.6	90'	–	1	–	34 (29%)	–
23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M	6.8	90'	–	–	1	90 (83%)	–
4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	71 (67%)	4
1 Jeffrey de Lange G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	35 (33%)	–
22 Tim Weah D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	55 (53%)	3
8 Himad Abdelli M	6.5	91'	–	–	1	48 (45%)	–
33 Emerson Palmieri D	6.4	91'	–	–	1	74 (68%)	1
21 Nayef Aguerd D	6.4	73'	–	–	–	94 (91%)	–
14 Igor Paixão M	6.3	72'	–	–	1	32 (29%)	1
43 T. Mmadi F	6.3	18'	–	–	1	8 (6%)	–
7 Angel Gomes M	6.2	73'	–	–	2	49 (45%)	2
48 Keyliane Abdallah F	6.0	17'	–	–	1	9 (8%)	–
13 Derek Cornelius D	5.9	17'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–

Paris FC

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Lassine Sinayoko F	9.2	91'	3	–	4	20 (16%)	1
7 Pablo Pagis M	7.7	64'	–	1	2	20 (16%)	1
15 Luca Koleosho D	7.2	78'	–	1	4	13 (10%)	1
27 Moses Simon F	6.9	12'	–	–	3	6 (6%)	1
33 Pierre Lees Melou M	6.8	90'	–	–	1	54 (47%)	2
10 Ilan Kebbal M	6.6	78'	–	–	3	42 (40%)	3
20 Maxime López M	6.4	91'	–	–	–	57 (51%)	3
14 Hamari Traoré D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	1
17 Adama Camara D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	35 (25%)	9
31 Samir Sophian Chergui D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	51 (39%)	1
8 Patrick Zabi M	6.1	12'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
1 Kevin Trapp G	6.0	90'	–	–	–	33 (19%)	–
42 Diego Coppola D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	36 (29%)	–
23 Rudy Matondo M	5.6	26'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	2

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Victoire ou match nul difficile pour Marseille

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.3%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Marseille

LLLLL

Paris FC

WDWWD

Last 2 meetings Marseille · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Marseille will face Paris FC. Marseille has shown strong attacking metrics this season, averaging 2.1 goals per match, while their defense has been solid, conceding only 1 goal per game. Paris FC, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, with a goal-scoring average of 1.0 per match and a defense that has leaked 1.5 goals per game. Given Marseille's offensive prowess and stronger overall form, they are favored to secure a victory in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

22%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Paris FC goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	1
1	10	13	6	2	1
2	10	10	5	2
3	5	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Marseille goals · most likely 1–1 (13.3%)

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Players in form

Marseille

A. Gouiri 4 gls

Paris FC

L. Sinayoko 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

26%

Away Win

22%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

70% Home (No Draw) 30% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

50% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 22% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

24%

1.5

76%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.7%	5.7%	3.6%	1.2%	0.3%
1	10.1%	13.3%	6.0%	2.0%	0.5%
2	9.6%	9.7%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.2%	5.3%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.2%	2.2%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

52%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Marseille	Draw	Paris FC
Marseille	30.6%	4.3%	1.6%
Draw	18.7%	17.6%	9.7%
Paris FC	2.4%	3.9%	11.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Paris FC

1 Marseille Wins

1 Draws

0 Paris FC Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 Jan 2026	Paris FC	2 - 2	Marseille
23 Aug 2025	Marseille	5 - 2	Paris FC

Marseille — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	1 - 2
17 Sep	A Beşiktaş	L	4 - 1
11 Sep	A Rennes	L	1 - 0
06 Sep	H Paris FC	L	2 - 3
30 Aug	A Monaco	L	2 - 0

Paris FC — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Strasbourg	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Lyon	D	0 - 0
06 Sep	A Marseille	W	2 - 3
30 Aug	H Nice	W	3 - 0
22 Aug	A Estac Troyes	D	0 - 0

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2