Getafe vs Malaga Prédiction

La Liga · Regular Season - 7

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Malaga

Away

Estadio Coliseum, Getafe

Prédiction IA Getafe ou match nul

48%

31%

21%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Getafe vs Malaga : Sportiko estime que Getafe a 48% de chances de s'imposer, Malaga 21% et le match nul 31%. Dernière mise à jour : 20 Sep 2026, 14:06.

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Match Report

Getafe edged out Malaga 1–0 in a tense La Liga encounter that remained goalless until the closing stages. The first half was disrupted by disciplinary issues, with yellow cards shown to Johan Mojica and Eneko Jauregi — the latter forced off at half-time after picking up his booking — while David Larrubia was cautioned in stoppage time to set a combative tone.

Malaga dominated possession at 55% and generated nine corner kicks to Getafe's five, yet it was the hosts who created the more dangerous chances, registering 19 total shots and seven on target compared to Malaga's four. A flurry of substitutions and further bookings mid-way through the second half kept the match fractious, but the decisive moment arrived in the 85th minute when Ivan Azón broke the deadlock with a composed finish to seal all three points for Getafe.

The pre-match AI model had rated a Getafe victory as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved correct. The result lifts Getafe while leaving Malaga frustrated despite their territorial advantage throughout.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Johan Mojica Yellow Card

21' ▮

▮ 39'

Eneko Jauregi Yellow Card

⇄ 45'

Eneko Jauregi ⇄ Adrián Niño Heredia

▮ 45+5'

David Larrubia Yellow Card

HT 0–0

Nemanja Gudelj Yellow Card

54' ▮

Francho Serrano Yellow Card

58' ▮

Djené ⇄ Orel Mangala

65' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Dani Lorenzo ⇄ Pablo Martínez

⇄ 67'

Joaquín Muñoz ⇄ Chupete

Ramón Terrats Yellow Card

68' ▮

⇄ 74'

Rafa Rodriguez ⇄ Ramón Enríquez

Ivan Azón assist: Martín Satriano

85' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 89'

Juan Berrocal ⇄ Juan Cruz

Ivan Azón ⇄ Saba Sazonov

89' ⇄

Martín Satriano ⇄ Davinchi

90+4' ⇄

FT 1–0

Getafe

Match Stats

Malaga

45% Ball Possession 55%

19 Total Shots 11

7 Shots on Goal 4

8 Shots off Goal 2

4 Blocked Shots 5

11 Shots insidebox 6

7 Shots outsidebox 5

5 Corner Kicks 9

0 Offsides 1

16 Fouls 16

4 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 6

326 Total passes 414

273 Passes accurate 351

15 Free Kicks 14

Getafe

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Ivan Azón M	8.2	89'	1	–	4	13 (9%)	–
24 Zaid Romero D	8.0	90'	–	–	–	48 (47%)	1
21 Andrés García D	7.8	90'	–	–	3	36 (31%)	1
10 Martín Satriano M	7.7	94'	–	1	2	19 (11%)	1
2 Djené D	7.4	65'	–	–	–	31 (30%)	–
13 David Soria G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	24 (13%)	–
22 Johan Mojica D	7.2	90'	–	–	3	37 (27%)	2
11 Ramón Terrats M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	25 (23%)	1
4 Saba Sazonov D	7.0	1'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
16 Francho Serrano M	7.0	90'	–	–	1	35 (34%)	2
8 Nemanja Gudelj M	6.9	90'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	2
23 Orel Mangala M	6.8	25'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	1
19 Enes Ünal F	6.4	90'	–	–	3	16 (13%)	–

Malaga

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Alfonso Herrero G	7.7	90'	–	–	–	32 (22%)	–
25 Juan Berrocal D	7.3	89'	–	–	1	41 (39%)	1
6 Ramón Enríquez M	7.1	16'	–	–	–	20 (19%)	–
15 Ángel Recio D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	58 (52%)	1
12 Jose Salinas D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	21 (20%)	1
31 Rafa Garrido D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	44 (37%)	3
22 Dani Lorenzo M	6.8	67'	–	–	1	32 (30%)	–
18 Pablo Martínez M	6.6	23'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	1
14 Rafa Rodriguez M	6.6	74'	–	–	1	46 (38%)	2
19 Juan Cruz M	6.5	1'	–	–	1	–	–
11 Joaquín Muñoz M	6.4	67'	–	–	1	12 (6%)	1
21 Adrián Niño Heredia F	6.4	44'	–	–	1	7 (5%)	–
9 Chupete F	6.3	23'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
10 David Larrubia M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	38 (31%)	2
8 Carlos Dotor M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	43 (35%)	2
17 Eneko Jauregi F	6.0	46'	–	–	1	4 (3%)	1

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Getafe ou match nul

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

37%

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Getafe

WLDDL

Malaga

LLDDL

Last 3 meetings Getafe · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Getafe faces Malaga in a La Liga clash on September 20, 2026. Getafe has been strong at home, with a solid defensive record, averaging only 1.1 goals conceded per match in the last season. Malaga, on the other hand, has struggled to find the net, posting a goal-scoring average of just 0.8 goals per game away from home. The matchup will hinge on Getafe's ability to exploit Malaga's defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining their own defensive solidity. Expect a tactical battle, with Getafe likely looking to control possession and create scoring opportunities.

Live insights

86' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-0! Getafe win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 10.5%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 0-0. Draw looking likely at 72.2%. Late goal chance: 30.3%.

45' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Malaga win: 64%. BTTS: 49.6%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 65.3%. Over 1.5 remaining: 31.1%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

48%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

21%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Malaga goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	13	8	4	1
1	14	14	5	1
2	11	9	4	1
3	5	4	2
4	2	1	1
5

↑ Getafe goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

31%

Away Win

21%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

70% Home (No Draw) 30% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

48% Home Scores More 31% Equal Goals 21% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

34%

1.5

66%

63%

2.5

37%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.9%	7.6%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
1	13.7%	14.3%	5.2%	1.4%	0.3%
2	10.5%	8.6%	3.5%	1.0%	0.2%
3	4.8%	4.0%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.7%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

19%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Getafe	Draw	Malaga
Getafe	32.8%	5.3%	1.7%
Draw	15.4%	21.0%	10.9%
Malaga	1.1%	2.7%	9.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

75%

0.5

25%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Getafe vs Malaga

2 Getafe Wins

0 Draws

1 Malaga Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 May 2018	Malaga	0 - 1	Getafe
12 Jan 2018	Getafe	1 - 0	Malaga
05 Feb 2016	Malaga	3 - 0	Getafe

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Getafe — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Malaga	W	1 - 0
17 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0
13 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	D	1 - 1
07 Sep	H Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1
31 Aug	A Osasuna	L	1 - 0

Malaga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Getafe	L	1 - 0
17 Sep	H Villarreal	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Levante	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Getafe

Formation: 4-5-1 Coach: Randin Rande

13 Soria

22 Mojica

24 Romero

2 Dakonam

21 García

10 Satriano

16 Serrano

8 Gudelj

11 Terrats

20 Azón

19 Ünal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	David Soria	G
21	Andrés García	D
2	D. Dakonam	D
24	Z. Romero	D
22	J. Mojica	D
20	Iván Azón	M
11	Ramón Terrats	M
8	N. Gudelj	M
16	Francho Serrano	M
10	M. Satriano	M
19	E. Ünal	F

Substitutes

26	J. Valou	D
4	S. Sazonov	D
9	Borja Mayoral	F
23	O. Mangala	M
1	J. Letáček	G
31	M. Hamdoune	D
35	Diego Ferrer	G
3	Davinchi	D
15	S. Boselli	D
28	Alberto Risco	M

Malaga

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Funes

1 Herrero

12 Salinas

25 Berrocal

15 Recio

31 Rafita

14 Rodríguez

11 Muñoz

22 Lorenzo

8 Dotor

10 Larrubia

17 Jauregi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alfonso Herrero	G
31	Rafita	D
15	Ángel Recio	D
25	Juan Berrocal	D
12	José Salinas	D
14	Rafa Rodríguez	M
10	David Larrubia	M
8	Carlos Dotor	M
22	Dani Lorenzo	M
11	Joaquín Muñoz	M
17	Eneko Jauregi	F

Substitutes

32	J. Fernandez	F
3	Puga	D
5	Álex Pastor	D
21	Adrián Niño Heredia	F
23	Izan Merino	M
18	Pablo Martínez	M
13	Carlos López	G
4	Einar Galilea	D
6	Ramón Enríquez	M
19	Juan Cruz	M
9	Chupe	F
30	Andrés Céspedes	G