Malaga vs Villarreal Prédiction

La Liga · Regular Season - 6

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Villarreal

Away

Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga

Prédiction IA Villarreal ou match nul

26%

48%

Victoire à domicile Match nul Victoire extérieure

Pronostic Malaga vs Villarreal : Sportiko estime que Malaga a 26% de chances de s'imposer, Villarreal 48% et le match nul 26%. Dernière mise à jour : 17 Sep 2026, 21:28.

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1st Half Over 0.5 75%
L'équipe à domicile marque 72%

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Match Report

Villarreal claimed a comfortable 3–1 victory away at Malaga in La Liga's sixth matchday, despite the hosts dominating possession throughout. Malaga drew first blood through Carlos Dotor in the 12th minute, but Villarreal hit back emphatically before the break. Alberto Moleiro levelled on 40 minutes, and Pape Gueye added a second just before half-time to give the visitors a 2–1 lead at the interval.

The second half saw Malaga push hard with 63% possession and eight corner kicks, yet they struggled to convert their pressure into clear chances, managing only one shot on target. A Carlos Romero goal was ruled out by VAR in the 82nd minute, extinguishing Malaga's hopes of a comeback. Gueye then sealed the result from the penalty spot on 86 minutes to complete a disciplined Villarreal win. Six yellow cards were distributed across both sides, reflecting a feisty contest.

Our pre-match AI model identified a Villarreal win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved correct as the visitors' clinical edge ultimately proved decisive despite Malaga's territorial advantage.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Carlos Dotor assist: Juan Cruz

12' ⚽ 1–0

Jose Salinas Yellow Card

34' ▮

⇄ 37'

Santi Comesaña ⇄ Pape Gueye

⚽ 1–1 40'

Alberto Moleiro assist: Ilias Akhomach

▮ 42'

Ilias Akhomach Yellow Card

Juan Cruz ⇄ Dani Lorenzo

45' ⇄

Jose Salinas ⇄ Rafa Garrido

45' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 45+2'

Pape Gueye assist: Ayoze Pérez

HT 1–2

Izan Merino ⇄ Joaquín Muñoz

61' ⇄

Carlos Dotor ⇄ Adrián Niño Heredia

61' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Ayoze Pérez ⇄ Georges Mikautadze

⇄ 63'

Ilias Akhomach ⇄ Carlos Romero

David Larrubia Yellow Card

68' ▮

Einar Galilea Yellow Card

70' ▮

Carlos Puga ⇄ Ramón Enríquez

75' ⇄

Ramón Enríquez Yellow Card

79' ▮

⇄ 80'

Alberto Moleiro ⇄ Santiago Mouriño

⇄ 80'

Nathan-Dylan Saliba ⇄ Carlos Maciá

🖵 82'

Carlos Romero Goal cancelled

Alfonso Herrero Yellow Card

85' ▮

⚽ 1–3 86'

Pape Gueye Penalty

FT 1–3

Malaga

Match Stats

Villarreal

37% Ball Possession 63%

5 Total Shots 16

1 Shots on Goal 7

4 Shots off Goal 5

0 Blocked Shots 4

4 Shots insidebox 12

1 Shots outsidebox 4

4 Corner Kicks 8

1 Offsides 3

17 Fouls 10

5 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 0

347 Total passes 600

282 Passes accurate 540

10 Free Kicks 17

Malaga

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Carlos Dotor M	7.4	61'	1	–	1	31 (27%)	1
9 Chupete F	6.7	90'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	1
15 Ángel Recio D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	34 (33%)	3
19 Juan Cruz M	6.4	46'	–	1	–	10 (6%)	2
23 Izan Merino M	6.3	61'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	–
11 Joaquín Muñoz F	6.3	29'	–	–	1	8 (5%)	–
22 Dani Lorenzo M	6.2	44'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	1
21 Adrián Niño Heredia F	6.2	29'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
31 Rafa Garrido D	6.1	44'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	2
4 Einar Galilea D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	50 (44%)	3
18 Pablo Martínez M	5.9	90'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	1
3 Carlos Puga D	5.7	75'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	6
6 Ramón Enríquez M	5.7	15'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	–
10 David Larrubia M	5.6	90'	–	–	–	23 (17%)	2
12 Jose Salinas D	5.5	46'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	4
1 Alfonso Herrero G	5.5	90'	–	–	–	38 (24%)	–

Villarreal

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Pape Gueye M	8.2	53'	2	–	2	48 (41%)	–
10 Alberto Moleiro F	8.2	80'	1	–	3	54 (46%)	–
11 Ilias Akhomach M	7.6	63'	–	1	1	28 (24%)	1
22 Ayoze Pérez F	7.3	63'	–	1	3	9 (6%)	1
17 Tajon Buchanan M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	27 (26%)	3
14 Santi Comesaña M	7.2	37'	–	–	–	42 (41%)	–
12 Renato Veiga D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	91 (81%)	–
3 Alexander Freeman D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	69 (62%)	1
23 Sergi Cardona D	6.8	90'	–	–	2	79 (72%)	3
24 Nathan-Dylan Saliba M	6.7	80'	–	–	–	43 (39%)	2
6 Pau Navarro D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	46 (45%)	1
9 Georges Mikautadze F	6.5	27'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	–
25 Péter Gulácsi G	6.4	90'	–	–	–	23 (21%)	–
15 Santiago Mouriño D	6.4	10'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
16 Carlos Maciá M	6.3	10'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
20 Carlos Romero D	6.2	27'	–	–	1	23 (19%)	–

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Notre approche

Villarreal ou match nul

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.2%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

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Malaga

LLDDL

Villarreal

WWLLL

Last 3 meetings Malaga · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming La Liga clash, Málaga will host Villarreal. Málaga's recent form shows a struggle to convert chances, with an average of 1.2 goals per match over the last five fixtures. Conversely, Villarreal has demonstrated stronger offensive capabilities, averaging 1.8 goals per match in the same timeframe. Defensively, both teams have vulnerabilities, with Málaga allowing 1.6 goals per match and Villarreal conceding 1.4. This match could hinge on Villarreal's ability to exploit Málaga’s defensive lapses while the home side seeks to capitalize on any set pieces or counter-attacks.

Live insights

87' Goal 85% sure

Villarreal now leads 1-3 with 99.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 10.4%.

83' Goal 85% sure

Villarreal now leads 1-3 with 99.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 21%.

83' time check 80% sure

Min 83: Villarreal leads 1-3. Win probability: 99.6%. Comeback chance: 0.4%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Villarreal leads 1-2. Win probability: 85.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 14.1%.

45' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Villarreal win: 77%. BTTS: 100%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

48%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Villarreal goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	7	8	5	2	1
1	5	12	10	6	3	1
2	4	7	6	4	2	1
3	2	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Malaga goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Players in form

Malaga

No scorer data.

Villarreal

P. Gueye 3 gls

Alberto Moleiro 2 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

26%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

48%

Draw

26%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

65% Away (No Draw) 35% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

48% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.2%	7.1%	7.6%	4.5%	2.0%
1	4.6%	12.2%	9.7%	5.8%	2.6%
2	3.8%	6.9%	6.1%	3.7%	1.6%
3	1.6%	2.9%	2.6%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

22%

0.5

78%

51%

1.5

49%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

22%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Malaga	Draw	Villarreal
Malaga	12.6%	3.1%	1.6%
Draw	11.2%	15.0%	12.7%
Villarreal	2.8%	6.1%	34.9%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Away Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Malaga vs Villarreal

1 Malaga Wins

1 Draws

1 Villarreal Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Apr 2018	Malaga	1 - 0	Villarreal
05 Nov 2017	Villarreal	2 - 0	Malaga
12 Feb 2017	Villarreal	1 - 1	Malaga

Voir les 10 confrontations — Premium

Malaga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Getafe	L	1 - 0
17 Sep	H Villarreal	L	1 - 3
13 Sep	A Celta Vigo	D	1 - 1
06 Sep	H Levante	D	0 - 0
30 Aug	A Real Madrid	L	4 - 0

Villarreal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Levante	W	3 - 1
17 Sep	A Malaga	W	1 - 3
14 Sep	H Real Betis	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A Borussia Dortmund	L	3 - 2
05 Sep	H Deportivo La Coruna	L	2 - 3

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Villarreal

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Iñigo Pérez

25 Gulácsi

23 Cardona

12 Veiga

6 Navarro

3 Freeman

17 Buchanan

14 Comesaña

24 Saliba

11 Akhomach

22 Pérez

10 Moleiro

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	P. Gulácsi	G
3	A. Freeman	D
6	Pau Navarro	D
12	Renato Veiga	D
23	Sergi Cardona	D
11	Ilias Akhomach	M
24	N. Saliba	M
14	Santi Comesaña	M
17	T. Buchanan	M
10	Alberto Moleiro	F
22	Ayoze Pérez	F

Substitutes

13	Rubén Gómez	G
18	P. Gueye	M
9	G. Mikautadze	F
7	Gerard Moreno	F
15	S. Mouriño	D
21	T. Oluwaseyi	F
19	N. Pépé	F
1	Luíz Júnior	G
20	Carlos Romero	D
5	A. Diatta	M
2	Logan Costa	D
16	C. Macia	M

Malaga

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Funes

1 Herrero

12 Salinas

4 Galilea

15 Recio

3 Puga

23 Merino

18 Martínez

8 Dotor

10 Larrubia

19 Cruz

9 Chupe

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alfonso Herrero	G
3	Puga	D
15	Ángel Recio	D
4	Einar Galilea	D
12	José Salinas	D
23	Izan Merino	M
19	Juan Cruz	M
10	David Larrubia	M
8	Carlos Dotor	M
18	Pablo Martínez	M
9	Chupe	F

Substitutes

25	Juan Berrocal	D
32	J. Fernandez	F
31	Rafita	D
17	Eneko Jauregi	F
22	Dani Lorenzo	M
13	Carlos López	G
11	Joaquín Muñoz	F
21	Adrián Niño Heredia	F
5	Álex Pastor	D
14	Rafa Rodríguez	M
6	Ramón Enríquez	M