Spain vs Belgium Prediction

World Cup · Quarter-finals

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Belgium

Away

Llamada IA Difícil victoria o empate de Spain

54%

27%

18%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Spain vs Belgium prediction: Sportiko gives Spain a 54% chance of winning, Belgium 18% and the draw 27%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Más de 1.5 goles 75%

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Match Report

Spain edged past Belgium 2–1 in a hard-fought World Cup quarter-final, with Mikel Merino's late header proving the decisive moment. Fabián Ruiz gave Spain the lead on 30 minutes, but Belgium hit back swiftly through Charles De Ketelaere just before half-time to level proceedings at 1–1. Despite controlling just 32% of possession and generating a modest 0.37 expected goals against Belgium's 2.08, Spain held firm defensively and made their limited opportunities count.

The second half saw both coaches turn to their benches, with Spain introducing Alex Baena and later Mikel Oyarzabal as they sought a winner. Belgium pressed without reward, and Kevin De Bruyne was shown a yellow card before being withdrawn in the 86th minute. Two minutes later, substitute Merino headed home to send Spain through, a result that our pre-match AI model had rated as the most likely outcome at 54%.

Belgium will reflect on a performance that dominated the statistical picture — 17 total shots and eight on target — yet ultimately yielded nothing. Spain advance to the semi-finals on the strength of clinical finishing and resilience under sustained pressure.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Fabián Ruiz

30' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 41'

Charles De Ketelaere assist: Timothy Castagne

Pau Cubarsí Yellow Card

43' ▮

HT 1–1

Alex Baena ⇄ Ferran Torres

55' ⇄

Fabián Ruiz ⇄ Pedri

55' ⇄

⇄ 60'

Leandro Trossard ⇄ Axel Witsel

⇄ 60'

Hans Vanaken ⇄ Romelu Lukaku

⇄ 61'

Maxim De Cuyper ⇄ Joaquin Seys

⇄ 71'

Thibaut Courtois ⇄ Senne Lammens

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Nico Williams

79' ⇄

▮ 85'

Kevin De Bruyne Yellow Card

⇄ 86'

Kevin De Bruyne ⇄ Alexis Saelemaekers

Dani Olmo ⇄ Mikel Merino

86' ⇄

Mikel Merino

88' ⚽ 2–1

Aymeric Laporte Yellow Card

90+3' ▮

▮ 90+5'

Axel Witsel Yellow Card

FT 2–1

Spain

Match Stats

Belgium

68% Ball Possession 32%

2.08 Expected Goals (xG) 0.37

17 Total Shots 5

8 Shots on Goal 2

4 Shots off Goal 1

5 Blocked Shots 2

10 Shots insidebox 4

7 Shots outsidebox 1

5 Corner Kicks 1

3 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 6

665 Total passes 314

598 Passes accurate 244

90% Passes % 78%

0.59 goals_prevented 0.59

Spain

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Rodri M	7.6	90'	–	–	–	104 (98%)	1
22 Pau Cubarsí D	7.3	90'	–	–	1	91 (89%)	1
8 Fabián Ruiz M	7.3	55'	1	–	1	40 (35%)	1
10 Dani Olmo M	7.3	86'	–	–	2	42 (41%)	–
19 Lamine Yamal M	7.3	90'	–	–	4	47 (39%)	1
6 Mikel Merino M	7.2	12'	1	–	1	4 (4%)	–
20 Pedri M	7.0	35'	–	–	–	43 (37%)	–
21 Mikel Oyarzabal F	6.9	79'	–	–	1	25 (22%)	2
12 Pedro Porro D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	75 (66%)	2
15 Alex Baena M	6.9	55'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	1
14 Aymeric Laporte D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	67 (64%)	1
23 Unai Simón G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	33 (24%)	–
7 Ferran Torres F	6.5	35'	–	–	–	12 (8%)	–
24 Marc Cucurella D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	47 (43%)	1
17 Nico Williams F	6.3	11'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–

Belgium

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Thibaut Courtois G	7.9	71'	–	–	–	29 (22%)	–
17 Charles De Ketelaere F	7.5	90'	1	–	1	20 (10%)	–
25 Nathan Ngoy D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	2
4 Brandon Mechele D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	36 (33%)	2
11 Jérémy Doku M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	1
22 Alexis Saelemaekers F	6.7	12'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
23 Nicolas Raskin M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	39 (31%)	1
21 Timothy Castagne D	6.6	90'	–	1	–	26 (18%)	2
7 Kevin De Bruyne M	6.6	86'	–	–	1	24 (19%)	1
18 Joaquin Seys D	6.5	29'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
6 Axel Witsel M	6.5	30'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	–
10 Leandro Trossard M	6.3	60'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	–
5 Maxim De Cuyper D	6.3	61'	–	–	1	21 (16%)	–
20 Hans Vanaken M	6.3	60'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	–
12 Senne Lammens G	6.2	19'	–	–	–	13 (7%)	–
9 Romelu Lukaku F	6.2	30'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

Difícil victoria o empate de Spain

Most likely score

1:1 · 13%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Spain

WWWWW

Belgium

LWWWD

Match summary

In this World Cup clash, Spain faces Belgium in what promises to be a tactical battle. Spain boasts a possession-oriented style, averaging 63% possession in their recent matches, while Belgium relies on quick counter-attacks, with an average of 2.1 goals per game in qualifiers. The midfield battle will be crucial, with Spain's creativity against Belgium's physicality. Both teams have experienced players capable of turning the tide, making this encounter a potential highlight of the tournament. Defensive solidity will also be tested, as Belgium has conceded just 0.9 goals per game on average, while Spain's backline has been resilient. Expect a closely contested match.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

54%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

18%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Belgium goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	3	1
1	11	13	5	2
2	11	10	4	1
3	6	6	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Spain goals · most likely 1–1 (12.9%)

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Players in form

Spain

Mikel Oyarzabal 5 gls

Belgium

R. Lukaku 3 gls

C. De Ketelaere 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

18%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

75% Home (No Draw) 25% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

31% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

54% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	5.3%	3.0%	0.9%	0.2%
1	11.2%	13.0%	5.2%	1.6%	0.4%
2	10.8%	9.7%	4.4%	1.3%	0.3%
3	6.1%	5.5%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%
4	2.6%	2.4%	1.1%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Spain	Draw	Belgium
Spain	34.7%	4.0%	1.2%
Draw	18.9%	17.3%	7.7%
Belgium	2.3%	3.8%	10.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

50%

1.5

50%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Spain vs Belgium

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Spain — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Jul	H Argentina	W	1 - 0
14 Jul	A France	W	0 - 2
10 Jul	H Belgium	W	2 - 1
06 Jul	A Portugal	W	0 - 1
02 Jul	H Austria	W	3 - 0

Belgium — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
10 Jul	A Spain	L	2 - 1
07 Jul	A USA	W	1 - 4
01 Jul	H Senegal	W	3 - 2
27 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 5
21 Jun	H Iran	D	0 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Belgium

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rudi Garcia

1 Courtois

5 Cuyper

4 Mechele

25 Ngoy

21 Castagne

23 Raskin

20 Vanaken

11 Doku

7 Bruyne

10 Trossard

17 Ketelaere

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
21	Timothy Castagne	D
25	Nathan Ngoy	D
4	Brandon Mechele	D
5	Maxim De Cuyper	D
20	Hans Vanaken	M
23	Nicolas Raskin	M
10	Leandro Trossard	M
7	Kevin De Bruyne	M
11	Jérémy Doku	M
17	Charles De Ketelaere	F

Substitutes

6	Axel Witsel	M
9	Romelu Lukaku	F
18	Joaquin Seys	D
12	Senne Lammens	G
22	Alexis Saelemaekers	F
13	Mike Penders	G
3	Arthur Theate	D
15	Thomas Meunier	D
16	Koni De Winter	D
19	Diego Moreira	F
14	Dodi Lukebakio	F
26	Matías Fernández-Pardo	F

Spain

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Luis de la Fuente

23 Simón

24 Cucurella

14 Laporte

22 Cubarsí

12 Porro

8 Ruiz

16 Rodri

15 Baena

10 Olmo

19 Yamal

21 Oyarzabal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Unai Simón	G
12	Pedro Porro	D
22	Pau Cubarsí	D
14	Aymeric Laporte	D
24	Marc Cucurella	D
16	Rodri	M
8	Fabián Ruiz	M
19	Lamine Yamal	M
10	Dani Olmo	M
15	Alex Baena	M
21	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

20	Pedri	M
7	Ferran Torres	F
17	Nico Williams	F
6	Mikel Merino	M
1	David Raya	G
13	Joan García	G
2	Marc Pubill	D
4	Eric García	D
5	Marcos Llorente	M
3	Alejandro Grimaldo	D
9	Pablo Gavi	M
18	Martín Zubimendi	M
11	Yéremy Pino	M
25	Víctor Muñoz	F
26	Borja Iglesias	F