Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa prediction: Sportiko gives Nottingham Forest a 28% chance of winning, Aston Villa 46% and the draw 26%. Last updated 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa played out a 1–1 draw at the City Ground in Matchday 32 of the Premier League, with both goals arriving before the interval. An own goal gave Forest the lead in the 23rd minute, only for Villa to level through a normal goal on 38 minutes, ensuring the sides went into the break level.
The second half produced little in the way of further scoring despite a flurry of substitutions from both benches, including the introductions of Lucas Digne, Morgan Rogers, and Ollie Watkins for Villa in the closing stages. Discipline was a theme throughout, with four yellow cards distributed across the 90 minutes, John McGinn among those cautioned. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Aston Villa win as the most likely outcome at 46%, though the visitors ultimately had to settle for a point.
The stats reflected Villa's dominance in possession at 59%, yet Forest generated more corners and both sides finished with closely matched expected goals figures — 1.15 for the hosts and 1.02 for Villa — underlining the tight, evenly contested nature of the encounter.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Nottingham Forest
Match Stats
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Neco Williams D | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 24 (19%) | 3 |
| 7 Callum Hudson-Odoi M | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 23 (20%) | 1 |
| 34 Ola Aina D | 7.6 | 89' | – | – | – | 38 (30%) | 3 |
| 26 Matz Sels G | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (19%) | – |
| 8 Elliot Anderson M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 43 (41%) | 1 |
| 31 Nikola Milenković D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (35%) | 3 |
| 6 Ibrahim Sangaré M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 33 (27%) | 4 |
| 11 Chris Wood F | 6.5 | 25' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 19 Igor Jesus F | 6.5 | 89' | – | – | 2 | 14 (8%) | – |
| 21 Omari Hutchinson M | 6.3 | 65' | – | – | – | 21 (15%) | – |
| 10 Morgan Gibbs-White M | 6.3 | 84' | – | – | 2 | 21 (17%) | – |
| 16 Nicolás Domínguez M | 6.3 | 11' | – | – | – | 1 (1%) | – |
| 5 Murillo D | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 50 (41%) | – |
| 14 Dan Ndoye F | — | 1' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 22 Ryan Yates M | — | 1' | – | – | – | – | – |
Aston Villa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Youri Tielemans M | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 45 (36%) | 3 |
| 7 John McGinn M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 36 (33%) | – |
| 24 Amadou Onana M | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 54 (50%) | 2 |
| 6 Ross Barkley M | 7.0 | 77' | – | – | 1 | 24 (22%) | 1 |
| 14 Pau Torres D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 77 (71%) | 1 |
| 21 Douglas Luiz M | 6.9 | 13' | – | – | – | 16 (14%) | – |
| 22 Ian Maatsen D | 6.9 | 12' | – | – | 1 | 5 (4%) | – |
| 12 Lucas Digne D | 6.7 | 78' | – | – | – | 39 (34%) | 4 |
| 3 Victor Lindelöf D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 68 (64%) | 1 |
| 2 Matty Cash D | 6.5 | 89' | – | – | 1 | 43 (38%) | – |
| 18 Tammy Abraham F | 6.5 | 8' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 27 Morgan Rogers M | 6.3 | 78' | – | – | 2 | 35 (30%) | 2 |
| 10 Emiliano Buendía M | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | – |
| 40 Marco Bizot G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (28%) | – |
| 11 Ollie Watkins F | 6.0 | 87' | – | – | 1 | 15 (10%) | 1 |
| 16 Andrés García D | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep 2026 | Aston Villa | 1 - 2 | Nottingham Forest |
| 03 Jan 2026 | Aston Villa | 3 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 05 Apr 2025 | Aston Villa | 2 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
Nottingham Forest — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Coventry | L | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Aston Villa | W | 1 - 2 |
| 05 Sep | H Tottenham | D | 0 - 0 |
| 29 Aug | A Liverpool | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Aug | H Leeds | L | 0 - 2 |
Aston Villa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Tottenham | W | 2 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | A Coventry | W | 1 - 3 |
| 12 Sep | H Nottingham Forest | L | 1 - 2 |
| 08 Sep | A Club Brugge KV | W | 2 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Hull City | D | 0 - 0 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Nottingham Forest
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Vitor Pereira
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | M. Sels | G |
| 34 | O. Aina | D |
| 31 | N. Milenkovic | D |
| 5 | Murillo | D |
| 3 | N. Williams | D |
| 6 | I. Sangare | M |
| 8 | E. Anderson | M |
| 21 | O. Hutchinson | M |
| 10 | M. Gibbs-White | M |
| 7 | C. Hudson-Odoi | M |
| 19 | Igor Jesus | F |
Substitutes
| 27 | S. Ortega | G |
| 11 | C. Wood | F |
| 22 | R. Yates | M |
| 29 | D. Bakwa | F |
| 25 | L. Netz | D |
| 24 | J. McAtee | M |
| 16 | N. Dominguez | M |
| 14 | D. Ndoye | F |
| 4 | Morato | D |
Aston Villa
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Unai Emery
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | M. Bizot | G |
| 2 | M. Cash | D |
| 3 | V. Lindelof | D |
| 14 | P. Torres | D |
| 12 | L. Digne | D |
| 24 | A. Onana | M |
| 8 | Y. Tielemans | M |
| 7 | J. McGinn | M |
| 6 | R. Barkley | M |
| 27 | M. Rogers | M |
| 11 | O. Watkins | F |
Substitutes
| 64 | J. Wright | G |
| 31 | L. Bailey | F |
| 21 | Douglas Luiz | M |
| 22 | I. Maatsen | D |
| 26 | L. Bogarde | M |
| 18 | T. Abraham | F |
| 10 | E. Buendia | M |
| 4 | E. Konsa | D |
| 16 | A. Garcia | D |