Lecce vs Genoa Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 38

Post on X

Genoa

Away

AI call Genoa or draw

23%

29%

48%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Lecce vs Genoa prediction: Sportiko gives Lecce a 23% chance of winning, Genoa 48% and the draw 29%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lecce secured a vital 1–0 victory over Genoa on the final day of the Serie A season, with Lameck Banda's early strike proving the decisive moment. The Zambian winger broke the deadlock in just the sixth minute, and that early advantage would ultimately be enough for the hosts to claim all three points.

Despite Lecce dominating possession at 68%, the underlying numbers told a different story — Genoa generated an expected goals figure of 1.43 compared to Lecce's 0.68, and the visitors registered four shots on target to the home side's one. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Genoa win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that ultimately did not materialise. Both sides made extensive use of their substitution allowances as the game wore on, though neither could alter the scoreline established so early in the contest.

Ylber Ramadani picked up a yellow card just before half-time and was eventually withdrawn late on, while Tiago Gabriel was booked for Genoa in the 76th minute. Lecce held firm despite the statistical pressure, shutting out Genoa to preserve a clean sheet and the narrow winning margin.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Lameck Banda assist: Santiago Pierotti

6' ⚽ 1–0

Ylber Ramadani Yellow Card

45' ▮

HT 1–0

Oumar Ngom ⇄ Omri Gandelman

46' ⇄

⇄ 60'

Aarón Martín

⇄ 60'

Stefano Sabelli ⇄ Wedtoin Latif Ouedraogo

Lameck Banda ⇄ Konan N'Dri

65' ⇄

⇄ 69'

Alexsandro Amorim ⇄ Jacopo Grossi

Tiago Gabriel Yellow Card

76' ▮

Santiago Pierotti ⇄ Gaby Jean

80' ⇄

Walid Cheddira ⇄ Nikola Štulić

80' ⇄

⇄ 83'

Alessandro Marcandalli ⇄ Gael Lafont

⇄ 83'

Patrizio Masini

Ylber Ramadani ⇄ Kialonda Gaspar

89' ⇄

FT 1–0

Lecce

Match Stats

Genoa

32% Ball Possession 68%

1.43 Expected Goals (xG) 0.68

9 Total Shots 8

4 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 5

0 Blocked Shots 2

7 Shots insidebox 6

2 Shots outsidebox 2

1 Corner Kicks 6

3 Offsides 2

11 Fouls 6

2 Yellow Cards 0

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 3

240 Total passes 510

175 Passes accurate 432

73% Passes % 85%

0.89 goals_prevented 0.89

Lecce

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Antonino Gallo D	7.7	90'	–	–	1	23 (17%)	–
30 Wladimiro Falcone G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	29 (16%)	–
5 Jamil Siebert D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	26 (26%)	2
20 Ylber Ramadani M	7.2	89'	–	–	–	34 (27%)	1
19 Lameck Banda M	7.2	65'	1	–	3	4 (3%)	–
17 Danilo Veiga D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (23%)	2
44 Tiago Gabriel D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	30 (22%)	1
29 Lassana Coulibaly M	6.7	90'	–	–	2	18 (16%)	–
9 Nikola Štulić F	6.7	10'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
99 Walid Cheddira F	6.6	80'	–	–	2	6 (4%)	–
18 Gaby Jean D	6.6	10'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
50 Santiago Pierotti M	6.5	80'	–	1	1	18 (10%)	2
16 Omri Gandelman M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	9 (4%)	–
11 Konan N'Dri F	6.5	25'	–	–	–	3	–
79 Oumar Ngom M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	–
4 Kialonda Gaspar D	—	1'	–	–	–	–	–

Genoa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Nicola Leali G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	42 (34%)	–
3 Aarón Martín M	7.2	60'	–	–	–	22 (17%)	1
71 Filippo Carbone M	7.2	10'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	3
27 Alessandro Marcandalli D	7.0	83'	–	–	1	59 (53%)	2
73 Patrizio Masini M	6.9	83'	–	–	2	36 (30%)	5
34 Sebastian Otoa D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	67 (62%)	–
80 Jacopo Grossi M	6.7	21'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	–
75 Gael Lafont M	6.7	10'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	–
77 Mikael Ellertsson F	6.6	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
99 Wedtoin Latif Ouedraogo D	6.6	30'	–	–	–	13 (7%)	4
15 Brooke Norton-Cuffy D	6.6	30'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	1
32 Morten Frendrup M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	57 (48%)	1
29 Lorenzo Colombo F	6.3	90'	–	–	1	17 (14%)	2
4 Alexsandro Amorim M	6.3	69'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	2
20 Stefano Sabelli M	6.3	60'	–	–	2	23 (14%)	–
13 Nils Zätterström D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	71 (61%)	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

At a glance

Our lean

Genoa or draw

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Lecce

DDWWL

Genoa

WDLLD

Last 3 meetings Lecce · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Lecce will host Genoa on May 24, 2026. Lecce has shown a solid home record this season, with a 60% win rate at their stadium, leveraging strong support from their fans. Conversely, Genoa has struggled away, securing only 30% of their points on the road. Both teams are likely to prioritize defensive stability, with Lecce's average of 1.2 goals conceded per match at home contrasting with Genoa's 1.8 goals conceded away. The match could be tightly contested, with Lecce favored to edge out due to their home advantage and superior form.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Genoa goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	13	16	10	4	1
1	10	13	8	3	1
2	4	5	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Lecce goals · most likely 0–1 (16.4%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Lecce vs Genoa

0 Lecce Wins

2 Draws

1 Genoa Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Aug 2025	Genoa	0 - 0	Lecce
14 Mar 2025	Genoa	2 - 1	Lecce
05 Jan 2025	Lecce	0 - 0	Genoa

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Lecce — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	H Istra 1961	D	2 - 2
22 Jul	H FC Politehnica Timisoara	D	0 - 0
24 May	H Genoa	W	1 - 0
17 May	A Sassuolo	W	2 - 3
09 May	H Juventus	L	0 - 1

Genoa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	A Leicester	W	0 - 1
25 Jul	H Vicenza Virtus	D	2 - 2
24 May	A Lecce	L	1 - 0
17 May	H AC Milan	L	1 - 2
10 May	A Fiorentina	D	0 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Genoa

Formation: 3-5-1-1 Coach: Daniele De Rossi

1 Leali

13 Zatterstrom

34 Otoa

27 Marcandalli

3 Martin

73 Masini

4 Amorim

32 Frendrup

20 Sabelli

77 Ellertsson

29 Colombo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	N. Leali	G
27	A. Marcandalli	D
34	S. Otoa	D
13	N. Zatterstrom	D
20	S. Sabelli	M
32	M. Frendrup	M
4	Amorim	M
73	P. Masini	M
3	A. Martin	M
77	M. E. Ellertsson	F
29	L. Colombo	F

Substitutes

16	J. Bijlow	G
39	D. Sommariva	G
22	J. Vasquez	D
15	B. Norton-Cuffy	D
19	M. Romano	M
75	G. Lafont	M
71	F. Carbone	-
74	M. Doucoure	-
80	J. Grossi	M
97	E. Spicuglia	F
99	W. L. Ouedraogo	D

Lecce

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

30 Falcone

25 Gallo

44 Gabriel

5 Siebert

17 Veiga

79 Ngom

20 Ramadani

19 Banda

29 Coulibaly

50 Pierotti

99 Cheddira

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
30	W. Falcone	G
17	D. Veiga	D
5	J. Siebert	D
44	Tiago Gabriel	D
25	A. Gallo	D
20	Y. Ramadani	M
79	O. Ngom	M
50	S. Pierotti	M
29	L. Coulibaly	M
19	L. Banda	M
99	W. Cheddira	F

Substitutes

1	C. Fruchtl	G
32	J. Samooja	G
14	T. J. Helgason	M
36	F. Marchwinski	M
16	O. Gandelman	M
6	A. Sala	M
8	S. Fofana	M
28	O. Gorter	M
22	F. Camarda	F
3	C. Ndaba	D
11	K. Ndri	F
18	G. Jean	D
9	N. Stulic	F
4	K. Gaspar	D
13	M. Perez	D