Guarda vs Chaves Prediction

Taça de Portugal · Round of 128

Post on X

Guarda

Home

2 : 3

HT 0 - 3

Chaves

Away

AI call Too close to call

46%

29%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Guarda vs Chaves prediction: Sportiko gives Guarda a 46% chance of winning, Chaves 25% and the draw 29%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:00.

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Over 1.5 Goals 75%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 4'

⚽ 0–2 13'

⚽ 0–3 42'

HT 0–3

62' ⚽ 1–3

73' ⚽ 2–3

FT 2–3

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Confidence Low (46%)

At a glance

Our lean

Too close to call

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Guarda

LDLWL

Chaves

WWLDL

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Chaves leads 2-3. Win probability: 81.9%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 18.1%.

74' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 2-3. Chaves win: 80.1%. BTTS: 100%.

62' Goal 85% sure

Chaves now leads 1-3 with 93.6% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 55.1%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-3. Chaves leads. Win probability: 97.2%. Over 0.5 more goals: 71.8%.

44' Goal 85% sure

Chaves now leads 0-3 with 97.1% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 72.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Chaves goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	2
1	10	14	7	2	1
2	9	9	5	2	1
3	4	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Guarda goals · most likely 1–1 (13.7%)

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

29%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

65% Home (No Draw) 35% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

24% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 29% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	6.3%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
1	9.6%	13.7%	6.6%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.6%	9.4%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.5%	4.9%	2.7%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.7%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

23%

0.5

77%

53%

1.5

47%

80%

2.5

20%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

23%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Guarda	Draw	Chaves
Guarda	23.7%	3.2%	1.1%
Draw	20.1%	17.8%	8.9%
Chaves	3.6%	5.6%	16.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

34%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Guarda vs Chaves

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Guarda — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Chaves	L	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Camacha	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A União Lamas	L	1 - 0
30 Aug	A Académico do Fundão	W	0 - 6
23 Aug	A Florgrade	L	1 - 0

Chaves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Guarda	W	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Feirense	W	1 - 0
30 Aug	A Felgueiras 1932	L	2 - 1
23 Aug	H AVS	D	2 - 2
15 Aug	A Sporting CP B	L	1 - 0

Taça de Portugal Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.