Rochdale vs Oldham Prediction

League Two · Regular Season - 7

Post on X

Rochdale

Home

2 : 0

HT 1 - 0

Oldham

Away

AI call Oldham or draw

26%

28%

46%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Rochdale vs Oldham prediction: Sportiko gives Rochdale a 26% chance of winning, Oldham 46% and the draw 28%. Last updated 19 Sep 2026, 13:25.

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Timeline

Daniel Moss assist: Kane Taylor

7' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 45'

Kai Payne ⇄ Calum Kavanagh

HT 1–0

Jonny Smith ⇄ Luke Hanannt

57' ⇄

Dajaune Brown assist: Babajide Adeeko

63' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 66'

Favour Fawunmi ⇄ Josh Hawkes

⇄ 66'

Donervon Daniels ⇄ Lewis Temple

Kaiden Wilson ⇄ L. Maguire

67' ⇄

Daniel Moss ⇄ Tobi Adebayo-Rowling

67' ⇄

Dajaune Brown ⇄ Emmanuel Dieseruvwe

77' ⇄

Kane Taylor ⇄ Edward Francis

77' ⇄

FT 2–0

Rochdale

Match Stats

Oldham

48% Ball Possession 52%

7 Total Shots 17

2 Shots on Goal 1

2 Shots off Goal 13

3 Blocked Shots 3

5 Shots insidebox 11

2 Shots outsidebox 6

0 Corner Kicks 6

2 Offsides 2

16 Fouls 11

0 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 0

350 Total passes 368

252 Passes accurate 273

11 Free Kicks 15

Rochdale

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Daniel Moss D	8.3	67'	1	–	1	32 (25%)	1
39 Dajaune Brown F	7.7	77'	1	–	2	9 (5%)	–
21 Kane Taylor M	7.5	77'	–	1	–	9 (6%)	3
5 L. Maguire D	7.4	23'	–	–	–	13 (7%)	–
13 Tobi Adebayo-Rowling D	7.3	23'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	1
17 Babajide Adeeko M	7.3	90'	–	1	–	25 (21%)	2
3 Kaiden Wilson D	7.1	67'	–	–	–	40 (35%)	–
2 Charlie Tasker D	7.1	90'	–	–	–	20 (17%)	–
18 Jonny Smith M	7.1	57'	–	–	4	14 (10%)	–
19 Luke Hanannt M	6.9	33'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	1
14 Edward Francis M	6.8	13'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
8 Harvey Gilmour M	6.8	90'	–	–	–	37 (32%)	2
44 A. Flint D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	39 (25%)	1
1 Nils Ramming G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	56 (32%)	–
9 Emmanuel Dieseruvwe F	6.4	13'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
45 G. Middleton M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	26 (15%)	1

Oldham

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Jamie Robson D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	2
8 Ollie Norburn M	6.8	90'	–	–	–	61 (55%)	–
24 Lewis Temple D	6.6	24'	–	–	1	18 (13%)	–
10 Calum Kavanagh F	6.5	44'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	–
6 Manny Monthe D	6.5	90'	–	–	2	34 (26%)	–
7 Keenan Appiah-Forson M	6.4	90'	–	–	–	33 (27%)	2
17 Favour Fawunmi M	6.4	66'	–	–	2	10 (7%)	2
26 Kai Payne M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
15 Kane Drummond M	6.2	90'	–	–	4	31 (23%)	1
21 Josh Hawkes M	6.1	24'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	1
9 Mike Fondop F	6.0	90'	–	–	3	21 (14%)	–
2 Gus Scott-Morriss D	5.8	90'	–	–	4	29 (18%)	2
1 Mathew Hudson G	5.7	90'	–	–	–	42 (21%)	–
5 Donervon Daniels D	5.5	66'	–	–	–	26 (15%)	1

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Confidence Low (46%)

At a glance

Our lean

Oldham or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

57%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Rochdale

DWDLW

Oldham

WLLLD

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Rochdale leads 2-0. Win probability: 97.7%. Comeback chance: 2.3%.

64' Goal 85% sure

Rochdale now leads 2-0 with 93.8% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 54.8%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Rochdale leads. Win probability: 63.5%. Over 0.5 more goals: 74%.

28' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 34.3%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

7' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Rochdale win: 54.8%. BTTS: 77.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

26%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

46%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Oldham goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	8	8	4	2	1
1	6	13	10	5	2	1
2	4	7	6	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Rochdale goals · most likely 1–1 (13.1%)

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Players in form

Rochdale

No scorer data.

Oldham

C. Kavanagh 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Draw

28%

Home Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

46%

Draw

28%

Home Win

26%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

64% Away (No Draw) 36% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 26% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS Yes 43% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

22%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	8.3%	8.1%	4.4%	1.8%
1	5.6%	13.1%	9.5%	5.2%	2.1%
2	4.2%	6.9%	5.6%	3.1%	1.3%
3	1.7%	2.7%	2.2%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Rochdale	Draw	Oldham
Rochdale	14.7%	4.6%	2.8%
Draw	10.4%	16.9%	17.8%
Oldham	1.7%	4.2%	27.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

51%

0.5

49%

85%

1.5

15%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Rochdale vs Oldham

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Rochdale — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Liverpool U21	D	3 - 3
19 Sep	H Oldham	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Walsall	D	0 - 0
05 Sep	H Gillingham	L	1 - 4
01 Sep	H Shrewsbury	W	3 - 0

Oldham — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
22 Sep	H Fleetwood Town	W	1 - 0
19 Sep	A Rochdale	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	H Chesterfield	L	1 - 2
05 Sep	A Tranmere	L	2 - 0
01 Sep	A Fleetwood Town	D	1 - 1

League Two Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barnet	7	4	3	0	17	10	+7	15
2	Walsall	7	3	4	0	10	4	+6	13
3	Grimsby	7	3	4	0	11	6	+5	13
4	Gillingham	7	3	3	1	11	6	+5	12
5	Cheltenham	7	3	3	1	14	11	+3	12
6	Bristol Rovers	7	4	0	3	12	11	+1	12
7	York	7	3	2	2	13	10	+3	11
8	Chesterfield	7	3	2	2	10	8	+2	11
9	Crewe	7	2	5	0	7	5	+2	11
10	Tranmere	7	2	4	1	9	7	+2	10
11	Fleetwood Town	7	2	4	1	8	7	+1	10
12	Salford City	7	3	1	3	8	9	-1	10
13	Swindon Town	7	3	1	3	8	11	-3	10
14	Rotherham	7	2	3	2	10	10	0	9
15	Colchester	7	2	3	2	8	10	-2	9
16	Oldham	7	2	1	4	8	9	-1	7
17	Rochdale	7	2	1	4	7	10	-3	7
18	Shrewsbury	7	2	1	4	5	11	-6	7
19	Newport County	7	1	3	3	10	11	-1	6
20	Exeter City	7	1	3	3	4	5	-1	6
21	Accrington ST	7	1	3	3	10	13	-3	6
22	Northampton	7	1	3	3	3	6	-3	6
23	Port Vale	7	1	2	4	3	9	-6	5
24	Crawley Town	7	1	1	5	6	13	-7	4