Alverca vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9

25 Oct 2026, 16:00

Post on X

Arouca

Away

AI call Arouca or draw

29%

32%

40%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Alverca vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Alverca a 29% chance of winning, Arouca 40% and the draw 32%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

48%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Alverca

WWLDL

Arouca

DLDWL

Last 2 meetings Alverca · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

Alverca faces Arouca in a Primeira Liga matchup that is crucial for both teams as they look to secure vital points. Alverca has demonstrated solid defensive statistics this season, with an average of 1.2 goals conceded per match, while Arouca has struggled to find the net consistently, averaging only 1 goal per game. The key battle will likely be in midfield, where Alverca's ball retention could disrupt Arouca's attacking rhythm. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as they have shown vulnerability in defending them. Overall, this match promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	11	8	3	1
1	9	15	8	4	1
2	5	7	4	2	1
3	2	2	2	1
4		1
5

↑ Alverca goals · most likely 1–1 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Alverca

D. Camara 3 gls

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Draw

32%

Home Win

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

40%

Draw

32%

Home Win

29%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

58% Away (No Draw) 42% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals 29% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

31%

1.5

69%

60%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS No 48% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	10.9%	8.0%	3.4%	1.1%
1	8.6%	14.9%	8.4%	3.5%	1.1%
2	5.4%	6.8%	4.3%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.9%	2.4%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Alverca	Draw	Arouca
Alverca	16.5%	4.3%	1.9%
Draw	11.6%	20.8%	15.5%
Arouca	1.4%	4.2%	23.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Alverca vs Arouca

1 Alverca Wins

0 Draws

1 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
24 Apr 2026	Alverca	2 - 1	Arouca
14 Dec 2025	Arouca	1 - 0	Alverca

Alverca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rio Ave	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	A Nacional	W	1 - 3
05 Sep	H SC Braga	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Santa Clara	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Sporting CP	L	3 - 1

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.