Rio Ave vs Estrela Prediction
FT
AI call
Estrela or draw
33%
30%
36%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Rio Ave vs Estrela prediction: Sportiko gives Rio Ave a 33% chance of winning, Estrela 36% and the draw 30%. Last updated 14 Sep 2026, 19:45.
Premium picks
Premium- 2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
- Under 3.5 Goals 76%
- Away to Score 72%
- Home to Score 70%
- 1st Half Home or Draw 70%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off.
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Timeline
⚽
0–1
21'
Ianis Stoica
assist: Leandro Antonetti
▮
26'
Max Scholze
Yellow Card
Francisco Petrasso
Yellow Card
44'
▮
Francisco Petrasso
assist: Diogo Bezerra
45+3'
⚽
1–1
HT 1–1
⚽
1–2
53'
Abraham Marcus
assist: Max Scholze
Sebastian Clemmensen
⇄ Roland Galčík
54'
⇄
Roland Galčík
assist: Diogo Bezerra
56'
⚽
2–2
▮
58'
Eddy Doué
Yellow Card
⚽
2–3
61'
Abraham Marcus
assist: Ianis Stoica
Miguel Patricío
⇄ Tamblé Monteiro
63'
⇄
⇄
63'
Eddy Doué
⇄ Joan Jordán
João Tomé
⇄ Nelson Abbey
68'
⇄
Tamás Nikitscher
⇄ Malik Sellouki
68'
⇄
Pedro Amaral
⇄ Marios Vrousai
68'
⇄
⇄
71'
Max Scholze
⇄ Kevin Höög Jansson
⇄
72'
Santiago Serra
⇄ Jefferson Encada
▮
76'
Stefan Leković
Yellow Card
Jalen Blesa
Penalty
78'
⚽
3–3
⇄
84'
Abraham Marcus
⇄ Bénito
⇄
84'
Ianis Stoica
⇄ Alisson Souza de Jesus
Tamblé Monteiro
Yellow Card
90+1'
▮
FT 3–3
Rio Ave
Match Stats
Estrela
38%
Ball Possession
62%
11
Total Shots
20
6
Shots on Goal
6
3
Shots off Goal
7
2
Blocked Shots
7
4
Shots insidebox
14
7
Shots outsidebox
6
4
Corner Kicks
5
0
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
297
Total passes
475
247
Passes accurate
421
13
Free Kicks
15
Rio Ave
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Diogo Bezerra M | 8.2 | 90' | – | 2 | 3 | 22 (19%) | – |
| 30 Roland Galčík F | 8.0 | 36' | 1 | – | 1 | 4 (2%) | – |
| 11 Jalen Blesa F | 7.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 11 (9%) | 1 |
| 23 Francisco Petrasso D | 6.6 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 34 (27%) | 1 |
| 17 Marios Vrousai F | 6.5 | 22' | – | – | 1 | 6 (4%) | – |
| 79 Miguel Patricío M | 6.5 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 19 (18%) | 2 |
| 44 Tamás Nikitscher M | 6.4 | 68' | – | – | – | 29 (27%) | 1 |
| 24 Pedro Amaral D | 6.4 | 68' | – | – | – | 25 (23%) | 2 |
| 3 Simon Garcia D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 52 (48%) | – |
| 9 Tamblé Monteiro F | 6.3 | 27' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 99 Ennio Van Der Gouw G | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 43 (29%) | – |
| 5 Andreas Ndoj M | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 26 (21%) | 2 |
| 20 João Tomé D | 6.0 | 68' | – | – | – | 13 (9%) | – |
| 6 Nelson Abbey D | 5.9 | 22' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 80 Sebastian Clemmensen M | 5.8 | 54' | – | – | 1 | 6 (5%) | – |
| 19 Malik Sellouki M | 5.7 | 22' | – | – | – | 4 (4%) | – |
Estrela
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Abraham Marcus M | 9.1 | 84' | 2 | – | 3 | 36 (32%) | 3 |
| 10 Ianis Stoica M | 8.1 | 84' | 1 | 1 | 3 | 22 (18%) | 1 |
| 37 Leandro Antonetti F | 7.5 | 90' | – | 1 | 6 | 16 (13%) | – |
| 55 Rafa Soares D | 7.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 43 (39%) | 2 |
| 78 Santiago Serra M | 6.9 | 72' | – | – | – | 42 (37%) | 3 |
| 14 Lovro Zvonarek M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 26 (25%) | 1 |
| 80 Alisson Souza de Jesus F | 6.5 | 6' | – | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 21 Max Scholze D | 6.3 | 71' | – | 1 | 1 | 36 (32%) | 3 |
| 30 Patrick Luan D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 70 (62%) | 2 |
| 39 Eddy Doué M | 6.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 29 (26%) | 1 |
| 17 Jefferson Encada D | 6.1 | 18' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 5 Stefan Leković D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 63 (57%) | 1 |
| 19 Joan Jordán M | 6.0 | 27' | – | – | – | 26 (22%) | 3 |
| 6 Kevin Höög Jansson M | 5.9 | 19' | – | – | 1 | 16 (16%) | – |
| 93 Bénito M | 5.9 | 6' | – | – | 1 | 3 (2%) | – |
| 24 Léo Linck G | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 35 (29%) | – |
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Confidence
Low (36%)
At a glance
Our lean
Estrela or draw
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Rio Ave
LDLLW
Estrela
LDWDW
Last 3 meetings
Rio Ave · 3W 0D 0L
Match summary
In the upcoming Primeira Liga clash, Rio Ave faces Estrela. Historically, Rio Ave has maintained a solid home record, with a win percentage of 60% at their ground last season. Estrela, however, has struggled on the road, securing only 30% of their away matches. Key players to watch include Rio Ave's leading scorer, who averaged 0.5 goals per game last season, and Estrela's playmaker, known for creating 2.1 chances per match. This matchup could tilt in favor of Rio Ave if they capitalize on their home form.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
33%
10%
Draw
30%
45%
Away
36%
45%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Rio Ave
No scorer data.
Estrela
A. Marcus
4 gls
L. Antonetti
4 gls
I. Stoica
4 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Rio Ave vs Estrela
3
Rio Ave Wins
0
Draws
0
Estrela Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 2026 | Rio Ave | 2 - 1 | Estrela |
| 25 Oct 2025 | Estrela | 1 - 2 | Rio Ave |
| 05 May 2025 | Rio Ave | 2 - 0 | Estrela |
Rio Ave — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Alverca | L | 1 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | H Estrela | D | 3 - 3 |
| 06 Sep | A Santa Clara | L | 4 - 0 |
| 28 Aug | H Sporting CP | L | 0 - 4 |
| 22 Aug | A Estoril | W | 0 - 2 |
Estrela — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Academico Viseu | L | 0 - 2 |
| 14 Sep | A Rio Ave | D | 3 - 3 |
| 10 Sep | H SC Braga | W | 2 - 1 |
| 05 Sep | H Famalicao | D | 2 - 2 |
| 30 Aug | A Nacional | W | 2 - 3 |
Primeira Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
FC Porto
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 21 |
| 2 |
Benfica
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 16 |
| 3 |
Sporting CP
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 |
Santa Clara
|
7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 15 |
| 5 |
Arouca
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 11 |
| 6 |
SC Braga
|
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |
Academico Viseu
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 |
Estrela
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 |
GIL Vicente
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Alverca
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 |
Maritimo
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 |
Moreirense
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 8 |
| 13 |
Famalicao
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 7 |
| 14 |
Vitória SC
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 |
Nacional
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
| 16 |
Rio Ave
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 |
Casa Pia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 4 |
| 18 |
Estoril
|
7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 2 |
Rio Ave
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: S. Silaidopoulos
99
Gouw
24
Amaral
3
Garcia
23
Petrasso
20
Tomé
5
Ntoi
44
Nikitscher
7
Bezerra
79
Patricio
80
Clemmensen
11
Blesa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 99 | E. van der Gouw | G |
| 20 | João Tomé | D |
| 23 | F. Petrasso | D |
| 3 | S. Garcia | D |
| 24 | Pedro Amaral | D |
| 44 | T. Nikitscher | M |
| 5 | A. Ntoi | M |
| 80 | S. Clemmensen | M |
| 79 | M. Patricio | M |
| 7 | Diogo Bezerra | M |
| 11 | J. Blesa | F |
Substitutes
| 30 | R. Galčík | F |
| 39 | Gustavo Mancha | D |
| 6 | N. Abbey | D |
| 54 | G. Liavas | M |
| 19 | M. Sellouki | M |
| 21 | R. Šiler | F |
| 77 | D. Špikić | F |
| 9 | Tamble Monteiro | F |
| 32 | Vitor Hugo | G |
| 17 | M. Vrousai | F |
| 70 | A. Wenck | M |
| 60 | Caike | D |
Estrela
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Pepa
24
Linck
55
Soares
5
Leković
30
Luan
21
Scholze
39
Doue
78
Serra
10
Stoica
14
Zvonarek
99
Marcus
37
Antonetti
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Léo Linck | G |
| 21 | M. Scholze | D |
| 30 | Patrick Luan | D |
| 5 | S. Leković | D |
| 55 | Rafa Soares | D |
| 78 | Santiago Serra | M |
| 39 | Eddy Doue | M |
| 99 | A. Marcus | M |
| 14 | L. Zvonarek | M |
| 10 | I. Stoica | M |
| 37 | L. Antonetti | F |
Substitutes
| 4 | Bernardo Schappo | D |
| 17 | Jefferson Encada | D |
| 6 | K. Höög Jansson | M |
| 19 | Joan Jordán | M |
| 3 | L. Mincarelli Davin | D |
| 49 | R. Muteba | F |
| 71 | E. Pedro Vanga | M |
| 51 | Diogo Pinto | G |
| 8 | Robinho | M |
| 93 | B. Souza | M |
| 80 | Alisson | F |
| 22 | David Grilo | G |