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Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction

Ligue 1 Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5
FT
Post on X
Marseille

Marseille

Home
1 : 2
HT 0 - 0
Paris Saint Germain

Paris Saint Germain

Away
Stade Orange Vélodrome, Marseille
AI call Difficult Paris Saint Germain win or draw
17%
21%
62%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction: Sportiko gives Marseille a 17% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain 62% and the draw 21%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 20:44.

Premium picks

Premium
  • Draw/Away & Over 1.5 74%
  • Away 2H Over 0.5 76%
  • Under 4.5 72%
  • Home to Score 70%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

Paris Saint-Germain claimed a 1–2 victory at the Vélodrome in a Ligue 1 clash that remained goalless at half-time before bursting to life in the second half. PSG dominated throughout, controlling 61% of possession and registering 31 total shots to Marseille's 12, with 10 on target compared to just four from the hosts. Our pre-match AI model had rated a PSG win as the most likely outcome at 62%, and so it proved.

The decisive period came in a frantic spell between the 66th and 74th minutes. Ferran Torres broke the deadlock on 66 minutes before Angel Gomes doubled the advantage six minutes later. Marseille pulled one back through Marquinhos — an own goal — at 74 minutes, briefly threatening a comeback, but PSG's lead held firm.

Any hope of a Marseille resurgence was extinguished when Tim Weah, already booked in the 32nd minute, received his second yellow card on 77 minutes to leave the hosts with ten men. PSG managed the closing stages comfortably, with corner kicks finishing 7–3 in the visitors' favour, to secure a commanding derby win.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Igor Paixão ⇄ Angel Gomes
30' ⇄
Tim Weah Yellow Card
32' ▮
▮ 39'
Nuno Mendes Yellow Card
HT 0–0
⇄ 59'
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ⇄ Ferran Torres
Amine Harit ⇄ Keyliane Abdallah
63' ⇄
⇄ 65'
Fabián Ruiz ⇄ Maghnes Akliouche
⚽ 0–1 66'
Ferran Torres assist: Désiré Doué
Angel Gomes assist: Amine Gouiri
72' ⚽ 1–1
⚽ 1–2 74'
Marquinhos
Tim Weah Red Card
77' ▮
⇄ 79'
Ousmane Dembélé ⇄ Mika Godts
⇄ 79'
Désiré Doué ⇄ Lucas Beraldo
Keyliane Abdallah Yellow Card
81' ▮
Himad Abdelli ⇄ K. Bezahaf
84' ⇄
Neal Maupay ⇄ Faris Moumbagna
84' ⇄
Emerson Palmieri ⇄ Ulisses Garcia
84' ⇄
Angel Gomes Yellow Card
90' ▮
FT 1–2
Marseille

Match Stats

Paris Saint Germain
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 31
4 Shots on Goal 10
3 Shots off Goal 12
5 Blocked Shots 9
6 Shots insidebox 22
5 Shots outsidebox 9
3 Corner Kicks 7
1 Offsides 2
9 Fouls 3
2 Yellow Cards 1
1 Red Cards 0
8 Goalkeeper Saves 3
400 Total passes 627
327 Passes accurate 560
3 Free Kicks 8
Marseille
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
7 Angel Gomes M 7.6 60' 1 – 2 15 (13%) 1
1 Jeffrey de Lange G 7.4 90' – – – 38 (21%) –
23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg M 7.2 90' – – 3 59 (51%) 1
9 Amine Gouiri F 7.1 90' – 1 – 30 (26%) 1
4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley D 6.8 90' – – – 34 (29%) 1
11 Neal Maupay F 6.7 84' – – 2 22 (17%) 1
8 Himad Abdelli M 6.6 84' – – – 47 (43%) –
77 Amine Harit M 6.6 63' – – – 26 (24%) 1
21 Nayef Aguerd D 6.5 90' – – 1 42 (34%) –
25 Ulisses Garcia D 6.4 6' – – 1 1 (1%) –
29 Faris Moumbagna F 6.3 6' – – – – –
33 Emerson Palmieri D 6.2 84' – – – 34 (27%) 1
14 Igor Paixão M 6.1 30' – – – 8 (5%) –
48 Keyliane Abdallah F 6.1 27' – – 1 1 (1%) –
74 K. Bezahaf D 6.0 6' – – – 3 (2%) –
22 Tim Weah D 5.4 77' – – 1 32 (26%) 2
Paris Saint Germain
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
9 Ferran Torres F 8.1 31' 1 – 3 8 (7%) –
25 Nuno Mendes D 8.0 90' – – 2 64 (56%) 1
14 Désiré Doué F 7.7 79' – 1 4 41 (36%) 2
5 Marquinhos D 7.4 90' 1 – 2 77 (63%) –
17 Vitinha M 7.2 90' – – 3 103 (96%) 1
7 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia F 7.2 59' – – 2 33 (31%) 1
33 Warren Zaïre-Emery D 7.1 90' – – 1 60 (57%) 2
87 João Neves M 7.0 90' – – 3 59 (55%) 4
51 Willian Pacho D 6.8 90' – – – 54 (51%) 1
39 Matvey Safonov G 6.8 90' – – – 14 (9%) –
8 Fabián Ruiz M 6.7 65' – – 2 37 (33%) –
22 Mika Godts F 6.5 11' – – – 13 (13%) –
4 Lucas Beraldo D 6.5 11' – – – 12 (10%) –
10 Ousmane Dembélé F 6.4 79' – – 7 35 (27%) –
11 Maghnes Akliouche M 6.2 25' – – 2 14 (14%) –
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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Our lean
Difficult Paris Saint Germain win or draw
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Marseille
LLLLL
Paris Saint Germain
WWWLD
Last 3 meetings Marseille · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Marseille will face Paris Saint Germain on September 20, 2026. Both teams are historically strong, with PSG boasting a potent attack led by their star forwards, while Marseille typically employs a solid defensive strategy. Current form will be crucial; PSG has shown consistent scoring ability, averaging 2.5 goals per match this season, while Marseille's defense has allowed just 1 goal per game. Key players to watch include PSG's creative midfielders who can unlock defenses and Marseille's solid backline that seeks to stifle opposing attacks. This match promises to be a tactical battle, with potential implications for the title race.

Live insights

75' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Paris Saint Germain win: 88%. BTTS: 100%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Paris Saint Germain leads 1-2. Win probability: 88%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 12%.

73' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 56.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

67' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Paris Saint Germain win: 85.5%. BTTS: 26.6%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 82.5%. Over 1.5 remaining: 56.2%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
17%
10%
Draw
21%
45%
Away
62%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Marseille
A. Gouiri 4 gls
Paris Saint Germain
Ferran Torres 4 gls
Marquinhos 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Marseille vs Paris Saint Germain

1 Marseille Wins
0 Draws
2 Paris Saint Germain Wins
Date Home Score Away
08 Feb 2026 Paris Saint Germain 5 - 0 Marseille
22 Sep 2025 Marseille 1 - 0 Paris Saint Germain
16 Mar 2025 Paris Saint Germain 3 - 1 Marseille
See all 10 meetings — Premium

Marseille — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep H Paris Saint Germain L 1 - 2
17 Sep A Beşiktaş L 4 - 1
11 Sep A Rennes L 1 - 0
06 Sep H Paris FC L 2 - 3
30 Aug A Monaco L 2 - 0

Paris Saint Germain — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
20 Sep A Marseille W 1 - 2
13 Sep A Stade Brestois 29 W 0 - 1
09 Sep H Slovan Bratislava W 6 - 1
04 Sep H Monaco L 1 - 2
28 Aug A Lille D 2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Monaco
5 4 1 0 +5 13
2
Lyon
5 3 2 0 +8 11
3
Paris FC
5 3 2 0 +5 11
4
Lille
5 3 1 1 +4 10
5
Rennes
5 3 1 1 -1 10
6
Paris Saint Germain
5 2 2 1 +1 8
7
Angers
5 2 1 2 +1 7
8
Strasbourg
5 2 1 2 0 7
9
Le Mans
5 1 3 1 0 6
10
Auxerre
5 2 0 3 -5 6
11
Stade Brestois 29
5 1 2 2 -1 5
12
Lorient
5 1 2 2 -1 5
13
Toulouse
5 1 2 2 -2 5
14
Nice
5 1 2 2 -3 5
15
Lens
5 1 1 3 0 4
16
Estac Troyes
5 1 1 3 -7 4
17
Marseille
5 1 0 4 -1 3
18
Le Havre
5 0 2 3 -3 2

Marseille

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Bruno Genesio
1 Lange
33 Emerson
21 Aguerd
4 Egan-Riley
22 Weah
14 Paixão
8 Abdelli
23 Højbjerg
77 Harit
9 Gouiri
11 Maupay

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 J. de Lange G
22 T. Weah D
4 C. Egan-Riley D
21 N. Aguerd D
33 Emerson D
77 A. Harit M
23 P. Højbjerg M
8 H. Abdelli M
14 Igor Paixão M
11 N. Maupay F
9 A. Gouiri F

Substitutes

13 D. Cornelius D
74 K. Bezahaf D
7 A. Gomes M
25 U. Garcia D
48 K. Abdallah F
46 E. Mbondo D
43 T. Mmadi F
29 F. Moumbagna F
92 T. Vermot G

Paris Saint Germain

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Luis Enrique
39 Safonov
25 Mendes
51 Pacho
5 Marquinhos
33 Zaïre-Emery
8 Ruiz
17 Vitinha
87 Neves
7 Kvaratskhelia
10 Dembélé
14 Doué

Starting XI

# Player Pos
39 M. Safonov G
33 W. Zaïre-Emery D
5 Marquinhos D
51 W. Pacho D
25 Nuno Mendes D
87 João Neves M
17 Vitinha M
8 Fabián Ruiz M
14 D. Doué F
10 O. Dembélé F
7 K. Kvaratskhelia F

Substitutes

11 M. Akliouche M
30 L. Chevalier G
12 L. Digne D
27 Pedro Fernández M
22 M. Godts F
4 Beraldo D
24 Senny Mayulu M
9 Ferran Torres F
6 I. Zabarnyi D

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