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Monza vs Sassuolo Prediction

Serie A Serie A · Regular Season - 5
FT
Post on X
Monza

Monza

Home
2 : 1
HT 0 - 0
Sassuolo

Sassuolo

Away
U-Power Stadium, Monza
AI call Monza or draw
37%
28%
35%
Home Win Draw Away Win

Monza vs Sassuolo prediction: Sportiko gives Monza a 37% chance of winning, Sassuolo 35% and the draw 28%. Last updated 18 Sep 2026, 20:42.

Premium picks

Premium
  • Home to Score 76%
  • Away to Score 75%
  • 1st Half Home or Draw 72%
Premium members had these picks before kick-off. See Premium picks

Match Report

Monza claimed a 2–1 Serie A victory over Sassuolo at home, with the game remaining goalless at the break before coming to life in the second half. Gustavo Varela was the decisive figure, opening the scoring with a 51st-minute strike before converting a penalty just twelve minutes later to give the hosts a commanding lead. Monza dominated possession throughout, finishing with 64% of the ball and eight shots on target from 20 attempts.

Sassuolo pushed for a way back into the match through a flurry of substitutions from the hour mark, and Vasilije Adžić pulled one back with two minutes remaining to set up a nervy finish. However, Monza held on to secure all three points, with Varela completing his brace before receiving a yellow card deep into stoppage time. A late booking for Luca Lipani and Samuele Birindelli added to a feisty closing spell.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Monza win as the most likely outcome at 37%, a call that proved correct. The result moves Monza to five matches into their Serie A campaign with a hard-fought home win to show for it.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Eddy Kouadio Yellow Card
30' ▮
HT 0–0
Gustavo Varela assist: Samuele Birindelli
51' ⚽ 1–0
Patrick Cutrone ⇄ Dany Mota
56' ⇄
Ricardo Mangas ⇄ Adam Bakoune
56' ⇄
Ebenezer Akinsanmiro ⇄ Manga Foe Ondoa
56' ⇄
Gustavo Varela Penalty
63' ⚽ 2–0
⇄ 64'
Kristian Thorstvedt ⇄ Kieron Bowie
⇄ 64'
Nemanja Matić ⇄ Luca Lipani
⇄ 72'
Domenico Berardi ⇄ Benjamín Domínguez
⇄ 72'
Sebastiano Esposito ⇄ Vasilije Adžić
Michael Folorunsho Yellow Card
74' ▮
Jay Robinson ⇄ Mathis Mout
82' ⇄
⇄ 82'
Darryl Bakola ⇄ L. Skjellerup
▮ 85'
Luca Lipani Yellow Card
Samuele Birindelli Yellow Card
85' ▮
⚽ 2–1 88'
Vasilije Adžić
Gustavo Varela Yellow Card
90+2' ▮
Samuele Birindelli ⇄ Y. Maye
90+3' ⇄
FT 2–1
Monza

Match Stats

Sassuolo
36% Ball Possession 64%
1.45 Expected Goals (xG) 1.58
15 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Goal 8
6 Shots off Goal 7
3 Blocked Shots 5
8 Shots insidebox 13
7 Shots outsidebox 7
7 Corner Kicks 5
0 Offsides 1
12 Fouls 6
4 Yellow Cards 1
Red Cards
7 Goalkeeper Saves 4
311 Total passes 566
248 Passes accurate 502
80% Passes % 89%
0.15 goals_prevented 0.15
Monza
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
9 Gustavo Varela F 8.3 92' 2 – 2 21 (17%) –
1 Noel Törnqvist G 7.6 92' – – – 38 (20%) –
60 Eddy Kouadio D 7.3 92' – – 1 41 (36%) 1
44 Andrea Carboni D 7.2 92' – – – 42 (31%) 3
19 Samuele Birindelli M 7.0 92' – 1 2 27 (23%) 3
14 Ebenezer Akinsanmiro M 6.9 56' – – – 21 (18%) 2
24 Adam Bakoune D 6.9 36' – – – 5 (5%) 5
3 Lorenzo Lucchesi D 6.9 92' – – 1 33 (32%) 2
46 Jay Robinson F 6.9 82' – – 2 16 (13%) 2
47 Dany Mota F 6.9 36' – – – 9 (8%) –
90 Michael Folorunsho M 6.7 92' – – – 24 (22%) 3
7 Ricardo Mangas M 6.7 56' – – 1 13 (11%) –
8 Manga Foe Ondoa M 6.3 36' – – 2 3 (2%) 1
80 Mathis Mout M 6.3 10' – – – 1 (1%) –
10 Patrick Cutrone F 6.3 56' – – 1 17 (9%) –
Sassuolo
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
17 Vasilije Adžić M 7.9 20' 1 – 2 19 (16%) 3
49 Arijanet Murić G 7.7 92' – – – 38 (35%) –
45 Armand Laurienté F 7.6 92' – – 1 52 (45%) –
50 Darryl Bakola M 7.3 82' – – 1 56 (53%) 7
18 Nemanja Matić M 7.2 64' – – 1 49 (47%) 2
15 Duje Ćaleta-Car D 6.9 92' – – – 66 (59%) 3
25 Benjamín Domínguez F 6.7 20' – – 1 7 (6%) –
16 Fedde Leysen D 6.6 92' – – 2 72 (64%) 2
42 Kristian Thorstvedt M 6.5 64' – – 1 38 (32%) –
35 Luca Lipani M 6.5 28' – – – 8 (8%) 1
19 L. Skjellerup F 6.5 10' – – – 1 (1%) 1
10 Domenico Berardi F 6.3 72' – – 2 31 (24%) 1
9 Kieron Bowie F 6.3 28' – – – 9 (9%) 1
46 S. Cinquegrano D 6.3 92' – – 2 34 (26%) 2
3 Josh Doig D 6.2 92' – – – 45 (42%) –
94 Sebastiano Esposito F 5.9 72' – – 1 38 (32%) –
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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Our lean
Monza or draw
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Monza
WLDWL
Sassuolo
LWDDW
Last 3 meetings Monza · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Monza faces Sassuolo, both teams looking to secure crucial points. Monza has shown resilience in recent matches, with a solid defensive record but struggles in converting chances, averaging 1.2 goals per game this season. Sassuolo, known for their attacking flair, boasts a higher average of 1.6 goals per match but has been inconsistent defensively, conceding an average of 1.5 goals. The matchup will likely hinge on whether Monza can contain Sassuolo's attack while improving their own goal-scoring efficiency. Overall, this contest promises to be competitive, with both sides aiming to capitalize on their respective strengths.

Live insights

89' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! Monza win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Monza leads 2-0. Win probability: 98.2%. Comeback chance: 1.8%.

64' Goal 85% sure

Monza now leads 2-0 with 95.7% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 54.6%.

53' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Monza win: 73.5%. BTTS: 43.3%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 73.9%. Over 1.5 remaining: 42.6%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

Monza
Gustavo Varela 4 gls
Sassuolo
Vasilije Adžić 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Monza vs Sassuolo

3 Monza Wins
0 Draws
0 Sassuolo Wins
Date Home Score Away
28 Jan 2024 Monza 1 - 0 Sassuolo
02 Oct 2023 Sassuolo 0 - 1 Monza
19 May 2023 Sassuolo 1 - 2 Monza
See all 4 meetings — Premium

Monza — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Sep H Sassuolo W 2 - 1
13 Sep A Lecce L 3 - 2
06 Sep A Parma D 1 - 1
01 Sep A Torino W 0 - 1
29 Aug H Udinese L 2 - 3

Sassuolo — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
18 Sep A Monza L 2 - 1
13 Sep H Juventus W 3 - 2
06 Sep A Bologna D 2 - 2
02 Sep H Frosinone D 1 - 1
29 Aug H Torino W 2 - 1

Serie A Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
AS Roma
5 4 1 0 +11 13
2
Inter
5 4 1 0 +7 13
3
Lazio
5 4 1 0 +5 13
4
Cagliari
5 4 0 1 +3 12
5
AC Milan
5 3 2 0 +6 11
6
Frosinone
5 3 1 1 +5 10
7
Juventus
5 3 1 1 +4 10
8
Como
5 3 1 1 +3 10
9
Napoli
5 2 1 2 +1 7
10
Sassuolo
5 2 1 2 0 7
11
Atalanta
5 2 0 3 -2 6
12
Lecce
5 2 0 3 -5 6
13
Udinese
5 1 1 3 -3 4
14
Torino
5 1 1 3 -3 4
15
Parma
5 1 1 3 -3 4
16
Monza
5 1 1 3 -4 4
17
Fiorentina
5 1 1 3 -6 4
18
Bologna
5 0 2 3 -3 2
19
Genoa
5 0 1 4 -7 1
20
Venezia
5 0 0 5 -9 0

Sassuolo

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Alberto Aquilani
49 Murić
3 Doig
16 Leysen
15 Ćaleta-Car
46 Cinquegrano
50 Bakola
18 Matić
42 Thorstvedt
45 Laurienté
94 Esposito
10 Berardi

Starting XI

# Player Pos
49 Arijanet Murić G
46 Simone Cinquegrano D
15 Duje Ćaleta-Car D
16 Fedde Leysen D
3 Josh Doig D
42 Kristian Thorstvedt M
18 Nemanja Matić M
50 Darryl Bakola M
10 Domenico Berardi F
94 Sebastiano Esposito F
45 Armand Laurienté F

Substitutes

35 Luca Lipani M
9 Kieron Bowie F
17 Vasilije Adžić M
25 Benjamín Domínguez F
19 Laurs Skjellerup F
80 Stefano Turati G
12 Giacomo Satalino G
20 Ignace Van der Brempt D
26 Cas Odenthal D
8 Andrea Ghion M
33 Rafael Obrador D
55 Ibrahim Sulemana M
77 Nicholas Pierini F

Monza

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Ivan Juric
1 Törnqvist
44 Carboni
3 Lucchesi
60 Kouadio
7 Mangas
14 Akinsanmiro
90 Folorunsho
19 Birindelli
46 Robinson
10 Cutrone
9 Varela

Starting XI

# Player Pos
1 Noel Törnqvist G
60 Eddy Kouadio D
3 Lorenzo Lucchesi D
44 Andrea Carboni D
19 Samuele Birindelli M
90 Michael Folorunsho M
14 Ebenezer Akinsanmiro M
7 Ricardo Mangas M
10 Patrick Cutrone F
46 Jay Robinson F
9 Gustavo Varela F

Substitutes

24 Adam Bakoune D
8 Manga Foe Ondoa M
47 Dany Mota F
80 Mathis Mout M
43 Aljaz Strajnar G
20 Demba Thiam G
6 Valentin Antov D
2 Saba Goglichidze D
5 Yvan Maye D
21 Leonardo Colombo M
11 Omari Forson F
22 Exequiel Zeballos F
16 Cyril Ngonge F
28 Andrea Colpani M

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