Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Prediction

La Liga · Regular Season - 7

Post on X

Real Madrid

Away

Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

AI call Real Madrid or draw

30%

26%

44%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid prediction: Sportiko gives Atletico Madrid a 30% chance of winning, Real Madrid 44% and the draw 26%. Last updated 20 Sep 2026, 16:17.

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1st Half Draw or Away 73%

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Match Report

A tense Madrid derby ended goalless at the break, with both sides showing early discipline despite a flurry of yellow cards. The match turned dramatically in the second half when Dean Huijsen received a red card following a VAR review just after the hour mark, leaving Real Madrid with ten men and fundamentally altering the contest.

Atletico Madrid capitalised immediately. Alejandro Grimaldo converted a penalty on 53 minutes to open the scoring, and Jonathan David doubled the hosts' advantage just six minutes later before being substituted off shortly after. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Real Madrid victory as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that quickly unravelled once the numerical disadvantage took hold. Antonio Rüdiger pulled one back deep in stoppage time, but it proved too little for the visitors.

Atletico's dominance was reflected throughout the stats — 61% possession, 17 total shots, and nine on target compared to Real Madrid's three. The red card proved the decisive turning point in a derby that Atletico controlled comfortably once they had the man advantage.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Giuliano Simeone Yellow Card

6' ▮

Marc Pubill Yellow Card

35' ▮

Cristian Romero Yellow Card

38' ▮

Cristian Romero Card upgrade confirmed

38' 🖵

Marc Pubill ⇄ Koke

45' ⇄

HT 0–0

▮ 49'

D. Dumfries Yellow Card

🖵 51'

Dean Huijsen Card upgrade confirmed

▮ 52'

Dean Huijsen Red Card

Alejandro Grimaldo Penalty

53' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 54'

Arda Güler ⇄ Antonio Rüdiger

⇄ 54'

Vinícius Júnior ⇄ Yan Diomande

Jonathan David assist: Giuliano Simeone

59' ⚽ 2–0

Jonathan David ⇄ Julián Alvarez

62' ⇄

Alex Baena ⇄ Ademola Lookman

67' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Aurélien Tchouaméni ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

▮ 78'

Jude Bellingham Yellow Card

⇄ 82'

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Bernardo Silva

⚽ 2–1 89'

Antonio Rüdiger assist: Bernardo Silva

Cristian Romero ⇄ Robin Le Normand

89' ⇄

Kang-in Lee ⇄ Morten Hjulmand

89' ⇄

FT 2–1

Atletico Madrid

Match Stats

Real Madrid

61% Ball Possession 39%

17 Total Shots 8

9 Shots on Goal 3

4 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 1

12 Shots insidebox 3

5 Shots outsidebox 5

3 Corner Kicks 1

2 Offsides 2

19 Fouls 6

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

615 Total passes 393

554 Passes accurate 338

6 Free Kicks 18

Atletico Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 Jonathan David F	7.9	62'	1	–	2	11 (11%)	1
17 Dávid Hancko D	7.5	90'	–	–	3	67 (59%)	3
14 Marcos Llorente M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	81 (77%)	1
6 Koke M	7.2	44'	–	–	1	64 (61%)	–
22 Alejandro Grimaldo D	7.0	90'	1	–	2	47 (42%)	1
20 Giuliano Simeone M	7.0	90'	–	1	1	41 (31%)	4
19 Julián Alvarez F	6.8	28'	–	–	3	18 (17%)	–
11 Ademola Lookman F	6.8	23'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	1
13 Jan Oblak G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	25 (18%)	–
21 Cristian Romero D	6.6	89'	–	–	1	56 (54%)	–
5 Johnny Cardoso M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	66 (62%)	–
10 Alex Baena M	6.5	67'	–	–	1	36 (32%)	1
23 Morten Hjulmand M	6.4	1'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
24 Robin Le Normand D	6.3	1'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
18 Marc Pubill D	6.1	46'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	1
7 Kang-in Lee F	5.9	89'	–	–	2	58 (49%)	2

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
22 Antonio Rüdiger D	7.3	36'	1	–	1	23 (21%)	–
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	25 (16%)	–
20 Bernardo Silva M	6.7	8'	–	1	–	21 (20%)	–
25 Yan Diomande F	6.6	36'	–	–	1	10 (9%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	6.6	82'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	4
8 Federico Valverde M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	29 (25%)	–
14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M	6.5	71'	–	–	2	32 (30%)	1
10 Kylian Mbappé F	6.4	90'	–	–	1	25 (21%)	1
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	47 (41%)	–
6 Eduardo Camavinga M	6.3	19'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	4
7 Vinícius Júnior M	6.2	54'	–	–	2	11 (8%)	1
15 Arda Güler M	6.2	54'	–	–	1	20 (14%)	–
17 Marc Cucurella D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	47 (42%)	5
4 Dean Huijsen D	5.8	52'	–	–	–	36 (36%)	3
24 D. Dumfries D	5.3	90'	–	–	–	24 (16%)	2

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Confidence Low (44%)

At a glance

Our lean

Real Madrid or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.4%

Both teams to score

63%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

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Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Real Madrid

LWWWL

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

In this highly anticipated La Liga clash, Atletico Madrid faces off against rivals Real Madrid. Atletico has been solid defensively, boasting one of the league's best goals-against records, while Real Madrid's attacking prowess, evidenced by their goal-scoring statistics, will be put to the test. Both teams have shown resilience in their recent fixtures, with Atletico leveraging their compact shape and quick counterattacks. Expect a tactical battle, as each side aims to gain crucial points in the title race. The outcome will likely hinge on individual brilliance and set-piece execution.

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! Atletico Madrid win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Atletico Madrid leads 2-0. Win probability: 98.6%. Comeback chance: 1.4%.

60' Goal 85% sure

Atletico Madrid now leads 2-0 with 95.8% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 57.9%.

55' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Atletico Madrid win: 70.2%. BTTS: 46.9%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 76.9%. Over 1.5 remaining: 47.2%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Madrid goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	6	6	6	3	1
1	5	12	9	5	2	1
2	5	8	6	4	1
3	2	4	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 1–1 (12.4%)

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Players in form

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

30%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Home Win

30%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Away (No Draw) 45% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 16% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

40% Away Scores More 33% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

41%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

81%

4.5

19%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

63% BTTS Yes 37% BTTS No

Exact Goals

11%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	6.1%	6.2%	3.4%	1.4%
1	5.3%	12.4%	9.0%	4.9%	2.0%
2	4.9%	8.0%	6.5%	3.5%	1.4%
3	2.4%	3.9%	3.1%	1.7%	0.7%
4	0.9%	1.4%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

43%

1.5

57%

72%

2.5

28%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid	18.8%	4.9%	3.0%
Draw	12.5%	15.8%	15.8%
Real Madrid	2.3%	4.4%	22.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

58%

1.5

42%

82%

2.5

18%

94%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

25%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid

2 Atletico Madrid Wins

0 Draws

1 Real Madrid Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Real Madrid	3 - 2	Atletico Madrid
27 Sep 2025	Atletico Madrid	5 - 2	Real Madrid
12 Mar 2025	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Real Madrid

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Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: D. Simeone

13 Oblak

22 Grimaldo

17 Hancko

21 Romero

18 Pubill

10 Baena

5 Cardoso

14 Llorente

20 Simeone

15 David

7 Kang-In

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	J. Oblak	G
18	Marc Pubill	D
21	C. Romero	D
17	D. Hancko	D
22	Álex Grimaldo	D
20	G. Simeone	M
14	Marcos Llorente	M
5	J. Cardoso	M
10	Álex Baena	M
7	Lee Kang-In	F
15	J. David	F

Substitutes

46	J. Castillo	M
19	J. Álvarez	F
27	J. Dominguez	D
23	M. Hjulmand	M
6	Koke	M
24	Robin Le Normand	D
11	A. Lookman	F
4	Rodrigo Mendoza	M
1	J. Musso	G
16	Arnau Ortiz	F
3	O. Vargas	M
30	Dani MartÃnez	D

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

17 Cucurella

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

24 Dumfries

14 Tchouaméni

8 Valverde

7 Júnior

5 Bellingham

15 Güler

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	T. Courtois	G
24	D. Dumfries	D
16	I. Konaté	D
4	D. Huijsen	D
17	Marc Cucurella	D
8	F. Valverde	M
14	A. Tchouaméni	M
15	A. Güler	M
5	J. Bellingham	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

2	Raúl Asencio	D
6	E. Camavinga	M
18	Álvaro Fernández	D
21	Brahim Díaz	M
25	Y. Diomande	F
9	Endrick	F
19	Carlos Espí	F
13	A. Lunin	G
27	Thiago Pitarch	M
22	A. Rüdiger	D
20	Bernardo Silva	M
12	T. Alexander-Arnold	D