Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 6

10 Oct 2026, 14:00

Post on X

Leeds

Away

Emirates Stadium, London

AI call Arsenal to win

82%

15%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Arsenal vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives Arsenal a 82% chance of winning, Leeds 3% and the draw 15%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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76% 75% 73%

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At a glance

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.2%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Arsenal

LWWWW

Leeds

DWLDD

Last 3 meetings Arsenal · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash between Arsenal and Leeds, Arsenal will look to leverage their strong attacking play, having scored an average of 2.3 goals per match this season. Leeds, on the other hand, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match. Arsenal's midfield control and pressing game could exploit Leeds' vulnerabilities, especially in transition. Both teams will need to manage their respective injuries and maintain discipline to secure points in this encounter. Overall, Arsenal's current form suggests they will be favored to secure a win.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	2
1	17	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	9	3
5	4	1

↑ Arsenal goals · most likely 2–0 (20.2%)

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Players in form

Arsenal

B. Saka 3 gls

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

59% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

82% Home Scores More 15% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	1.5%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.6%	5.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.2%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	15.8%	4.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.2%	2.8%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

35%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

57%

1.5

43%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

33%

25%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Arsenal	Draw	Leeds
Arsenal	58.1%	1.3%	0.1%
Draw	24.0%	10.8%	1.4%
Leeds	1.4%	1.4%	1.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

33%

1.5

67%

60%

2.5

40%

82%

3.5

18%

Home Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

63%

1.5

37%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Arsenal vs Leeds

3 Arsenal Wins

0 Draws

0 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
31 Jan 2026	Leeds	0 - 4	Arsenal
23 Aug 2025	Arsenal	5 - 0	Leeds
01 Apr 2023	Arsenal	4 - 1	Leeds

See all 8 meetings — Premium

Arsenal — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Brighton	L	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Ipswich	W	2 - 4
12 Sep	A Sunderland	W	0 - 2
09 Sep	A Napoli	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Chelsea	W	2 - 1

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.