Brighton vs Leeds Prediction

Premier League · Regular Season - 3

Post on X

Leeds

Away

AI call Brighton or draw

47%

28%

25%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Brighton vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives Brighton a 47% chance of winning, Leeds 25% and the draw 28%. Last updated 5 Sep 2026, 15:54.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Under 3.5 Goals 72%
1st Half Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Leeds took a surprise lead at the Amex when Jayden Bogle, who had been booked just minutes earlier, converted in the 15th minute to give the visitors a 1–0 advantage they carried into half-time. Brighton dominated possession — finishing the game with 67% of the ball and 20 total shots to Leeds' 10 — but struggled to find a way through before the break.

The hosts pressed hard after the interval and were rewarded in the 71st minute when Luka Vušković equalised to make it 1–1, capping a strong second-half showing from Brighton. The match was disrupted by a flurry of substitutions and bookings either side of that goal, with five yellow cards distributed across both sides throughout the contest.

Despite Brighton's territorial dominance, the game ended level, with both sides finishing equal on shots on target at five apiece. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Brighton win as the most likely outcome at 47%, and while the Seagulls did avoid defeat, they were ultimately unable to convert their pressure into all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 6'

Jayden Bogle Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 15'

Jayden Bogle assist: Ao Tanaka

Pascal Groß Yellow Card

38' ▮

HT 0–1

Maxim De Cuyper Yellow Card

49' ▮

⇄ 61'

Jayden Bogle ⇄ Jaka Bijol

⇄ 62'

Noah Okafor ⇄ Brenden Aaronson

▮ 64'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin Yellow Card

Luka Vušković assist: Maxim De Cuyper

71' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 73'

Ao Tanaka ⇄ Harry Wilson

⇄ 73'

Dominic Calvert-Lewin ⇄ Lukas Nmecha

Maxim De Cuyper ⇄ Promise David

77' ⇄

Ferdi Kadıoğlu ⇄ Costinha

78' ⇄

▮ 85'

Harry Wilson Yellow Card

Promise David Yellow Card

88' ▮

Olivier Boscagli ⇄ Pascal Struijk

90+3' ⇄

FT 1–1

Brighton

Match Stats

Leeds

67% Ball Possession 33%

20 Total Shots 10

5 Shots on Goal 5

6 Shots off Goal 4

9 Blocked Shots 1

12 Shots insidebox 10

8 Shots outsidebox 0

7 Corner Kicks 5

4 Offsides 2

13 Fouls 16

3 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

486 Total passes 238

408 Passes accurate 159

15 Free Kicks 13

Brighton

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
44 Luka Vušković D	7.6	90'	1	–	2	60 (53%)	2
29 Maxim De Cuyper M	7.1	77'	–	1	–	28 (25%)	1
21 Olivier Boscagli D	7.0	93'	–	–	–	59 (46%)	–
5 Lewis Dunk D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	80 (71%)	–
26 Yasin Ayari M	6.7	90'	–	–	2	50 (46%)	–
1 B. Verbruggen G	6.7	90'	–	–	–	39 (29%)	–
24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu D	6.6	78'	–	–	2	27 (22%)	1
35 Malick Yalcouyé M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	34 (29%)	–
20 Costinha D	6.5	12'	–	–	–	9 (8%)	–
13 Pascal Groß M	6.4	90'	–	–	5	47 (39%)	–
25 Diego Gómez M	6.3	90'	–	–	4	30 (20%)	3
19 Charalampos Kostoulas F	6.3	90'	–	–	3	22 (19%)	1
12 Promise David F	6.1	13'	–	–	1	–	–

Leeds

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
2 Jayden Bogle M	7.3	61'	1	–	1	12 (7%)	–
30 Nico Elvedi D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	–
22 Ao Tanaka M	7.1	73'	–	1	2	23 (18%)	2
24 James Justin D	7.0	90'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	3
5 Tarik Muharemović D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	38 (27%)	1
4 Ethan Ampadu M	6.8	90'	–	–	–	26 (17%)	4
15 Jaka Bijol D	6.6	29'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	2
10 Harry Wilson F	6.5	17'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
14 Lukas Nmecha F	6.5	17'	–	–	2	2 (2%)	–
11 Brenden Aaronson M	6.4	28'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F	6.4	73'	–	–	2	13 (9%)	–
19 Noah Okafor F	6.3	62'	–	–	–	7 (3%)	–
3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	25 (15%)	3
18 Anton Stach M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	18 (13%)	3
1 James Trafford G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	31 (12%)	–

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Confidence Low (47%)

At a glance

Our lean

Brighton or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.4%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Brighton

WWWDL

Leeds

DWLDD

Last 3 meetings Brighton · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

Brighton faces Leeds in an intriguing Premier League clash. Brighton has shown a solid defensive record, averaging 1.1 goals conceded per match this season, while Leeds has struggled at the back, allowing 1.8 goals per match. Offensively, Brighton boasts a balanced attack with an average of 1.5 goals scored per game, compared to Leeds' 1.3 goals per game. Key players to watch include Brighton's creative midfielder, who has contributed significantly to their scoring, and Leeds' striker, who will be pivotal in breaking down Brighton's defense. This match could hinge on Brighton's ability to control possession and exploit Leeds' defensive vulnerabilities.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

47%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

25%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	6	4	1
1	9	13	7	2	1
2	9	10	5	2	1
3	5	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Brighton goals · most likely 1–1 (13.4%)

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Players in form

Brighton

P. Groß 3 gls

C. Kostoulas 2 gls

M. Yalcouyé 2 gls

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

66% Home (No Draw) 34% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

47% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	5.8%	4.1%	1.5%	0.4%
1	9.3%	13.4%	6.5%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.7%	9.6%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.7%	5.1%	2.8%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

33%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Brighton	Draw	Leeds
Brighton	30.1%	4.3%	1.4%
Draw	16.3%	17.3%	9.2%
Leeds	2.4%	4.5%	14.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Brighton vs Leeds

1 Brighton Wins

1 Draws

1 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 May 2026	Leeds	1 - 0	Brighton
01 Nov 2025	Brighton	3 - 0	Leeds
11 Mar 2023	Leeds	2 - 2	Brighton

See all 8 meetings — Premium

Brighton — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Arsenal	W	3 - 0
16 Sep	A Manchester United	W	2 - 3
13 Sep	A Coventry	W	0 - 5
05 Sep	H Leeds	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Chelsea	L	4 - 3

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2